Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 7 September–5 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 22.7% 21.6–23.9% 21.2–24.2% 20.9–24.6% 20.4–25.1%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 16.3% 15.3–17.4% 15.0–17.7% 14.8–17.9% 14.3–18.5%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 12.6% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.6%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.4% 11.5–13.4% 11.3–13.7% 11.1–13.9% 10.6–14.4%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.3% 7.6–9.1% 7.3–9.3% 7.2–9.6% 6.8–10.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.6% 1.6–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.1% 100% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.6% Median
4 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 99.0% 99.0% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.8% 100% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.1% 100% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 99.0% 99.0% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.8% 100% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations