Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 1–31 July 2014

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 33.0% 31.0–35.0% 30.4–35.6% 29.9–36.1% 29.0–37.1%
CD&V 20.5% 17.7% 16.2–19.5% 15.7–20.0% 15.3–20.4% 14.6–21.3%
Open Vld 14.1% 15.5% 14.0–17.1% 13.6–17.6% 13.2–18.0% 12.5–18.8%
sp.a 14.0% 14.5% 13.1–16.2% 12.7–16.6% 12.4–17.0% 11.7–17.8%
Groen 8.7% 9.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.7%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.6–7.3% 4.4–7.5% 4.0–8.1%
PVDA 2.5% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 45 42–48 41–48 40–50 38–52
CD&V 27 22 20–26 20–27 19–27 18–28
Open Vld 19 20 19–23 19–24 18–24 16–26
sp.a 18 19 17–21 15–22 14–23 14–24
Groen 10 11 10–14 9–14 8–14 7–16
Vlaams Belang 6 5 3–8 2–8 1–8 0–8
PVDA 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 7% 92%  
43 18% 84% Last Result
44 14% 66%  
45 17% 52% Median
46 15% 34%  
47 9% 19%  
48 6% 10%  
49 2% 4%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 1.1%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.5% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 13% 97%  
21 32% 83%  
22 12% 51% Median
23 8% 40%  
24 8% 32%  
25 9% 24%  
26 6% 15%  
27 8% 9% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.7%  
17 0.6% 99.4%  
18 2% 98.9%  
19 20% 97% Last Result
20 30% 77% Median
21 13% 47%  
22 14% 35%  
23 15% 20%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.1% 2%  
26 0.7% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 3% 97%  
16 2% 94%  
17 4% 92%  
18 11% 88% Last Result
19 57% 76% Median
20 7% 19%  
21 3% 12%  
22 4% 9%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 2% 98%  
9 4% 97%  
10 39% 93% Last Result
11 12% 55% Median
12 6% 43%  
13 7% 37%  
14 28% 30%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 2% 98.7%  
2 3% 97%  
3 14% 94%  
4 30% 80%  
5 8% 50% Median
6 27% 42% Last Result
7 5% 16%  
8 11% 11%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 39%  
2 24% 24%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 88 100% 84–92 83–93 83–93 81–95
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 86 100% 83–90 82–91 81–92 79–93
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 74 74 100% 70–77 69–78 69–79 67–81
N-VA – CD&V 70 67 96% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–74
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 62 46% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–69
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0% 51–57 50–58 49–59 47–60
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–60
Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 47 52 0% 48–55 47–56 46–56 44–58
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 49 0% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–56
CD&V – Open Vld 46 43 0% 40–47 39–48 39–49 38–50
CD&V – sp.a 45 41 0% 39–45 38–46 37–46 35–48
Open Vld – sp.a 37 40 0% 37–42 36–44 35–45 33–47

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.8%  
82 1.2% 99.3%  
83 4% 98%  
84 5% 94%  
85 7% 88%  
86 12% 81%  
87 15% 69% Median
88 15% 54%  
89 10% 39% Last Result
90 10% 29%  
91 6% 19%  
92 7% 12%  
93 3% 6%  
94 1.4% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.7%  
80 1.1% 99.1%  
81 2% 98%  
82 5% 96%  
83 10% 91%  
84 11% 80%  
85 11% 70%  
86 16% 58% Median
87 14% 42%  
88 10% 28% Last Result
89 6% 18%  
90 6% 12%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.3%  
69 3% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 8% 90%  
72 10% 82% Median
73 17% 72%  
74 16% 55% Last Result
75 15% 40%  
76 10% 25%  
77 6% 15%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.9% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 5% 96% Majority
64 12% 92%  
65 9% 79%  
66 14% 70%  
67 14% 56% Median
68 14% 43%  
69 9% 28%  
70 7% 20% Last Result
71 5% 13%  
72 4% 8%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 5% 97%  
59 10% 92%  
60 11% 83%  
61 13% 72% Median
62 12% 58%  
63 13% 46% Majority
64 9% 33% Last Result
65 10% 24%  
66 7% 13%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.6%  
48 0.9% 98.9%  
49 3% 98%  
50 5% 95%  
51 13% 90%  
52 9% 77% Median
53 13% 68%  
54 20% 55%  
55 14% 35% Last Result
56 8% 21%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 8%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.1% 1.5%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 1.0% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 5% 97%  
50 7% 92%  
51 16% 85%  
52 10% 69% Median
53 16% 59%  
54 19% 44%  
55 9% 25% Last Result
56 7% 15%  
57 4% 9%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 0.8% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 97% Last Result
48 10% 93%  
49 10% 83%  
50 8% 73% Median
51 13% 64%  
52 16% 51%  
53 15% 35%  
54 8% 19%  
55 6% 12%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 3% 97%  
46 7% 94%  
47 9% 88%  
48 13% 78%  
49 16% 66% Last Result
50 16% 50% Median
51 15% 34%  
52 7% 19%  
53 5% 12%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.6%  
39 4% 98.7%  
40 9% 95%  
41 15% 85%  
42 11% 70% Median
43 14% 59%  
44 12% 45%  
45 9% 33%  
46 11% 24% Last Result
47 6% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.5% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 1.3% 99.0%  
37 3% 98%  
38 5% 95%  
39 13% 90%  
40 20% 78%  
41 15% 58% Median
42 9% 43%  
43 10% 34%  
44 10% 24%  
45 6% 14% Last Result
46 6% 8%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 1.5% 99.4%  
35 2% 98%  
36 2% 96%  
37 5% 94% Last Result
38 20% 89%  
39 19% 69% Median
40 13% 51%  
41 14% 37%  
42 13% 23%  
43 4% 10%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.3%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations