Vlaams Belang
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.9% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.0% | 8.6–15.8% | 8.3–16.3% | 8.0–16.7% | 7.4–17.5% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14.8% | 13.4–16.3% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.1–17.8% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9.3% | 8.3–10.6% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.3% | 8.8–13.9% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.3% | 10.1–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.4% | 8.9–14.1% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.6–12.4% | 8.1–13.1% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 5.9–10.4% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
11.7% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.8–14.0% | 9.4–14.4% | 8.7–15.3% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7.8% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.9% | 10.5–13.5% | 10.1–14.0% | 9.8–14.4% | 9.2–15.2% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.5–12.4% | 8.0–13.0% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12.3% | 10.9–13.9% | 10.4–14.4% | 10.1–14.8% | 9.5–15.7% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.5–14.9% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13.1% | 11.6–14.8% | 11.2–15.3% | 10.9–15.7% | 10.2–16.5% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13.9% | 12.6–15.3% | 12.2–15.7% | 11.9–16.1% | 11.3–16.8% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13.2% | 11.7–14.8% | 11.3–15.3% | 10.9–15.7% | 10.3–16.6% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.3–14.4% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9.7% | 8.4–11.2% | 8.0–11.6% | 7.7–12.0% | 7.2–12.8% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7.9% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.4–9.7% | 6.2–10.0% | 5.7–10.7% |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.2–8.0% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
7.4% | 6.2–8.8% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.7–9.6% | 5.2–10.3% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
7.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.2–8.6% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
8.0% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.6–9.7% | 6.3–10.1% | 5.8–10.8% |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
6.5% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.2–7.4% | 3.8–8.0% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
5.8% | 4.9–6.9% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.4–7.5% | 4.0–8.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 20% | 91% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 16% | 72% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 5% | 56% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 1.5% | 51% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 5% | 49% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 14% | 44% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 17% | 29% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 6 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 15 | 8–20 | 8–20 | 8–21 | 8–23 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 9–17 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
15 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–19 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–11 | 4–11 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
13 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 8–16 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 4–11 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10 | 8–11 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
14 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–20 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 4–12 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 10–15 | 9–16 | 8–16 | 8–17 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
16 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
17 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 11–22 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 13–22 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
16 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–22 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 8–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
8 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–11 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 8–16 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 4–13 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
4 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 0–8 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
8 | 6–9 | 6–11 | 4–11 | 4–12 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 6–8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 4–11 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 1–8 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 3–7 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
8 | 8–11 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 4–12 |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 2–8 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
4 | 2–7 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
5 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 1–8 | 0–8 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Vlaams Belang.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 7% | 88% | |
| 10 | 10% | 81% | |
| 11 | 13% | 71% | |
| 12 | 4% | 58% | |
| 13 | 4% | 54% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 50% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 50% | Median |
| 16 | 2% | 50% | |
| 17 | 14% | 47% | |
| 18 | 7% | 33% | |
| 19 | 4% | 26% | |
| 20 | 18% | 22% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |