N-VA

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 31.9% (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 28.1% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 27.9% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 28.3% 26.6–30.2% 26.1–30.7% 25.7–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 32.4% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.9% 29.6–35.4% 28.7–36.3%
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 31.3% 29.4–33.3% 28.9–33.8% 28.4–34.3% 27.6–35.3%
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 29.5% 27.7–31.5% 27.2–32.0% 26.8–32.5% 25.9–33.4%
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.4–30.8% 24.6–31.7%
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 30.2% 28.4–32.2% 27.9–32.8% 27.4–33.2% 26.5–34.2%
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 27.0% 24.8–29.4% 24.2–30.1% 23.7–30.7% 22.7–31.8%
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 26.3% 24.6–28.1% 24.1–28.6% 23.7–29.1% 22.9–30.0%
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 27.4% 25.4–29.5% 24.8–30.1% 24.4–30.6% 23.4–31.6%
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.8–31.2%
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 27.6% 25.6–29.8% 25.0–30.4% 24.5–30.9% 23.6–32.0%
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27.8% 26.1–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 25.9% 24.2–27.8% 23.7–28.3% 23.3–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25.2% 23.2–27.3% 22.7–27.8% 22.2–28.4% 21.3–29.4%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 24.2% 22.6–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.7–26.9% 20.9–27.8%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 25.7% 23.7–27.8% 23.2–28.3% 22.7–28.9% 21.8–29.9%
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 27.3% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.0%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28.5% 26.7–30.3% 26.2–30.8% 25.8–31.3% 25.0–32.2%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 29.2% 27.4–31.1% 26.9–31.6% 26.4–32.1% 25.6–33.0%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28.8% 27.1–30.7% 26.6–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.3–32.6%
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 31.1% 29.3–33.0% 28.8–33.6% 28.3–34.0% 27.5–34.9%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 27.5% 25.5–29.7% 24.9–30.3% 24.4–30.8% 23.5–31.9%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28.1% 26.1–30.3% 25.5–30.9% 25.0–31.4% 24.1–32.5%
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 28.5% 26.7–30.3% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.3% 25.0–32.2%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 28.3% 26.5–30.3% 26.0–30.8% 25.6–31.3% 24.7–32.2%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 28.8% 26.7–31.1% 26.1–31.7% 25.5–32.3% 24.5–33.4%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 30.2% 28.5–32.1% 28.0–32.6% 27.5–33.1% 26.7–34.0%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 27.8% 26.1–29.6% 25.6–30.2% 25.2–30.6% 24.4–31.5%
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.4–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.0–32.2%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 30.9% 28.8–33.1% 28.3–33.7% 27.8–34.3% 26.8–35.3%
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 30.0% 27.9–32.1% 27.4–32.7% 26.9–33.2% 25.9–34.3%
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.2–32.8% 26.3–33.7%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 31.9% 29.9–34.1% 29.3–34.8% 28.8–35.3% 27.8–36.3%
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 33.0% 31.0–35.0% 30.4–35.6% 29.9–36.1% 29.0–37.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for N-VA.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22.5–23.5% 0% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0.5% 100%  
24.5–25.5% 3% 99.4%  
25.5–26.5% 11% 96%  
26.5–27.5% 22% 86%  
27.5–28.5% 27% 64% Median
28.5–29.5% 22% 36%  
29.5–30.5% 11% 15%  
30.5–31.5% 3% 4%  
31.5–32.5% 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
32.5–33.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
33.5–34.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 43 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 38 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
6–14 May 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 38 35–40 34–41 34–41 32–43
25 March–14 April 2019 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 38 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
5–11 February 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 37 34–39 33–40 33–41 32–42
13–17 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Nieuwsblad		 40 38–43 37–44 36–44 34–45
19 November–8 December 2018 TNS
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 37 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
27 November–3 December 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 38 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–43
20–27 September 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 34 31–36 30–37 30–38 28–39
29 May–6 June 2018 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 36 34–38 33–39 32–40 30–42
26 February–17 March 2018 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 43 41–45 40–46 40–47 38–48
27 February–6 March 2018 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 42 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48
27 November–4 December 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 40 38–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
11 September–5 October 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 37 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
25 August–3 September 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 41 38–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
23–27 June 2017 Dedicated
MR		 36 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–43
27 March–11 April 2017 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 35 32–37 31–38 31–39 30–40
16–20 March 2017 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 37 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–43
10–17 January 2017 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 38 34–40 33–41 33–41 32–43
24–28 November 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 37 34–40 34–41 33–42 31–44
14 September–3 October 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 37 35–40 34–41 34–41 32–43
19–25 September 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 35 33–38 32–38 31–39 30–40
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 33 30–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 33 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 34 31–37 30–38 30–38 29–40
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 37 34–39 33–39 33–40 31–42
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 38 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–44
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 39 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 39 37–42 36–42 35–43 33–45
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 42 39–44 38–45 37–46 37–47
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 38 35–42 35–42 34–43 32–44
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 38 35–40 35–41 34–42 32–43
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 39 36–42 35–42 35–43 34–45
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 39 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–45
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 41 38–43 37–44 37–45 36–46
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos
RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws		 37 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 38 36–42 35–43 34–43 32–45
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 42 38–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 40 38–43 37–45 36–45 35–46
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS
De Standaard–VRT		 39 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated
RTBf–La Libre Belgique		 43 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–51
1–31 July 2014 AQ Rate
Het Laatste Nieuws		 45 42–48 41–48 40–50 38–52

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for N-VA.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 6% 97%  
35 11% 91%  
36 11% 80%  
37 14% 70%  
38 31% 55% Median
39 11% 25%  
40 6% 13%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%