sp.a
Voting Intentions
Last result: 14.0% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 11.9% | 10.2–13.7% | 9.8–14.2% | 9.5–14.6% | 8.9–15.4% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.6–13.7% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
12.7% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.7% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.2% | 8.7–13.8% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9.2% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.1–11.7% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.3% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.7–14.2% | 10.4–14.5% | 9.8–15.2% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.1–13.5% | 9.8–13.9% | 9.3–14.5% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.1% | 7.8–11.4% | 7.3–12.1% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.9% | 11.0–15.2% | 10.4–16.0% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
10.9% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.7% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
12.2% | 10.9–13.7% | 10.6–14.1% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.7–15.2% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
9.4% | 8.1–11.1% | 7.7–11.6% | 7.4–12.0% | 6.8–12.8% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13.2% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.4% | 10.7–16.1% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
13.0% | 11.6–14.7% | 11.2–15.2% | 10.9–15.6% | 10.2–16.4% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.5–15.1% | 11.2–15.5% | 10.6–16.2% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12.8% | 11.4–14.5% | 10.9–15.0% | 10.6–15.4% | 9.9–16.2% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
15.8% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–18.9% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.0–15.7% | 11.7–16.0% | 11.1–16.8% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14.9% | 13.4–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.6–17.6% | 11.9–18.5% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15.6% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.5–17.9% | 12.9–18.7% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15.0% | 13.4–16.7% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.6–17.7% | 11.9–18.5% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14.7% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.0–17.8% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15.2% | 13.9–16.8% | 13.5–17.2% | 13.2–17.6% | 12.6–18.3% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14.1% | 12.8–15.7% | 12.4–16.1% | 12.1–16.5% | 11.5–17.2% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
14.5% | 13.1–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.4–16.8% | 11.8–17.5% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.2–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
16.2% | 14.6–18.1% | 14.2–18.6% | 13.8–19.1% | 13.0–20.0% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15.6% | 14.1–17.4% | 13.6–18.0% | 13.2–18.4% | 12.5–19.3% |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.4% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15.6% | 14.2–17.2% | 13.8–17.6% | 13.4–18.0% | 12.8–18.8% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
16.4% | 14.7–18.3% | 14.2–18.8% | 13.8–19.3% | 13.0–20.3% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
14.7% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.0–16.6% | 12.7–17.0% | 12.0–17.7% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.8% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15.1% | 13.6–16.9% | 13.2–17.4% | 12.8–17.8% | 12.1–18.7% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
18.0% | 16.3–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.5–20.8% | 14.7–21.7% |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.9% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
15.0% | 13.5–16.8% | 13.1–17.3% | 12.7–17.7% | 12.0–18.5% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
14.5% | 13.1–16.2% | 12.7–16.6% | 12.4–17.0% | 11.7–17.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for sp.a.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 13% | 97% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 25% | 84% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 21% | 33% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 12% | Last Result |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 18 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 14 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 11–19 | 10–19 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
15 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 13–15 | 12–17 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
9 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–17 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
14 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
12 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
14 | 13–15 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–19 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
14 | 13–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 | 9–19 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
12 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–21 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–22 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–21 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
20 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 16–25 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
19 | 16–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–23 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 | 14–25 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 14–25 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
19 | 17–20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
19 | 18–22 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 15–24 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
18 | 16–19 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
19 | 17–20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–22 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
21 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
20 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 15–26 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–23 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
20 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
19 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–24 | 14–26 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
24 | 22–28 | 20–28 | 19–29 | 19–29 |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
19 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 16–25 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
19 | 18–21 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 14–25 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
19 | 17–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 14–24 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for sp.a.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 97% | |
| 13 | 11% | 96% | |
| 14 | 42% | 84% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 42% | |
| 16 | 6% | 27% | |
| 17 | 7% | 21% | |
| 18 | 6% | 14% | Last Result |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |