Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 22 September–3 October 2014
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 29.9% | 28.1–31.8% | 27.6–32.3% | 27.2–32.8% | 26.3–33.7% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 20.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.7–22.6% | 17.0–23.4% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.9% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.4% | 13.0–15.9% | 12.7–16.3% | 12.3–16.7% | 11.7–17.4% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.4% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 39 | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 27 | 23–28 | 21–29 | 21–30 | 21–31 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 16–25 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 13–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 13 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 2–8 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 11% | 96% | |
| 38 | 21% | 85% | |
| 39 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 44% | |
| 41 | 13% | 33% | |
| 42 | 12% | 20% | |
| 43 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 94% | |
| 23 | 5% | 91% | |
| 24 | 5% | 86% | |
| 25 | 11% | 81% | |
| 26 | 15% | 70% | |
| 27 | 44% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 28 | 5% | 11% | |
| 29 | 3% | 6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 19 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 41% | |
| 21 | 10% | 27% | |
| 22 | 9% | 18% | |
| 23 | 4% | 9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 6% | 93% | |
| 18 | 12% | 87% | |
| 19 | 34% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 28% | 40% | |
| 21 | 5% | 12% | |
| 22 | 5% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 27% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 6% | 72% | |
| 12 | 9% | 67% | |
| 13 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 14 | 38% | 47% | |
| 15 | 7% | 9% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 19% | 96% | |
| 5 | 5% | 77% | |
| 6 | 34% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 8% | 38% | |
| 8 | 29% | 29% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 46% | |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 85 | 100% | 82–89 | 82–90 | 81–91 | 80–92 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 85 | 100% | 82–88 | 81–89 | 79–89 | 78–91 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 78 | 100% | 75–80 | 74–81 | 73–82 | 71–83 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 66 | 91% | 63–69 | 62–69 | 60–70 | 58–72 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 65 | 87% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 59 | 8% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–66 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 59 | 5% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 54–63 | 52–65 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–56 | 47–57 | 45–58 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 46 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 40–53 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 46 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 40–52 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 45 | 0% | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–49 | 39–51 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 33–45 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 3% | 98% | |
| 82 | 8% | 96% | |
| 83 | 11% | 87% | |
| 84 | 13% | 77% | |
| 85 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 86 | 14% | 50% | |
| 87 | 16% | 35% | |
| 88 | 8% | 20% | Last Result |
| 89 | 6% | 12% | |
| 90 | 3% | 6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 5% | 95% | |
| 82 | 9% | 91% | |
| 83 | 17% | 82% | |
| 84 | 14% | 65% | |
| 85 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 86 | 12% | 36% | |
| 87 | 11% | 24% | |
| 88 | 7% | 13% | |
| 89 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 90 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 75 | 7% | 90% | |
| 76 | 12% | 83% | |
| 77 | 16% | 71% | |
| 78 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 79 | 16% | 34% | |
| 80 | 9% | 18% | |
| 81 | 5% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 95% | |
| 63 | 10% | 91% | Majority |
| 64 | 15% | 80% | |
| 65 | 15% | 65% | |
| 66 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 67 | 9% | 33% | |
| 68 | 12% | 24% | |
| 69 | 7% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 71 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 95% | |
| 62 | 5% | 92% | |
| 63 | 9% | 87% | Majority |
| 64 | 18% | 78% | Last Result |
| 65 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 15% | 41% | |
| 67 | 11% | 26% | |
| 68 | 7% | 15% | |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 94% | |
| 57 | 10% | 87% | |
| 58 | 14% | 77% | |
| 59 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 44% | |
| 61 | 13% | 30% | |
| 62 | 9% | 17% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 6% | 95% | Last Result |
| 56 | 10% | 89% | |
| 57 | 11% | 79% | |
| 58 | 17% | 68% | |
| 59 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 60 | 14% | 32% | |
| 61 | 9% | 18% | |
| 62 | 5% | 9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 48 | 8% | 97% | |
| 49 | 10% | 89% | |
| 50 | 12% | 79% | |
| 51 | 14% | 67% | Median |
| 52 | 20% | 54% | |
| 53 | 15% | 34% | |
| 54 | 8% | 19% | |
| 55 | 6% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 96% | |
| 43 | 4% | 91% | |
| 44 | 10% | 87% | |
| 45 | 15% | 77% | Last Result |
| 46 | 26% | 62% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 36% | |
| 48 | 9% | 23% | |
| 49 | 9% | 14% | |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 11% | 93% | |
| 44 | 13% | 82% | |
| 45 | 17% | 70% | Median |
| 46 | 20% | 53% | |
| 47 | 13% | 33% | |
| 48 | 9% | 19% | |
| 49 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 41 | 5% | 95% | |
| 42 | 5% | 90% | |
| 43 | 8% | 86% | |
| 44 | 11% | 78% | |
| 45 | 19% | 67% | |
| 46 | 21% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 47 | 15% | 26% | |
| 48 | 5% | 11% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 3% | 95% | |
| 37 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 38 | 27% | 83% | Median |
| 39 | 21% | 56% | |
| 40 | 11% | 35% | |
| 41 | 11% | 24% | |
| 42 | 7% | 13% | |
| 43 | 3% | 6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT
- Fieldwork period: 22 September–3 October 2014
Calculations
- Sample size: 1023
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.91%