Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 9–10 October 2014

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 30.0% 27.9–32.1% 27.4–32.7% 26.9–33.2% 25.9–34.3%
sp.a 14.0% 18.0% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
Open Vld 14.1% 16.0% 14.4–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.6–18.7% 12.9–19.6%
CD&V 20.5% 14.0% 12.5–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.8–16.6% 11.1–17.4%
Groen 8.7% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.7–11.9%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.8%
PVDA 2.5% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 40 38–43 37–45 36–45 35–46
sp.a 18 24 22–28 20–28 19–29 19–29
Open Vld 19 22 19–24 19–25 18–26 17–27
CD&V 27 17 15–20 14–20 14–21 14–21
Groen 10 10 10–14 9–14 8–15 7–16
Vlaams Belang 6 8 8–11 6–11 6–11 4–12
PVDA 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 99.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 6% 96%  
38 11% 91%  
39 21% 80%  
40 14% 59% Median
41 11% 45%  
42 12% 34%  
43 12% 22% Last Result
44 4% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 4% 99.9%  
20 3% 96%  
21 2% 93%  
22 5% 91%  
23 14% 86%  
24 35% 73% Median
25 15% 37%  
26 7% 23%  
27 5% 16%  
28 8% 11%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 18% 97% Last Result
20 16% 80%  
21 13% 63%  
22 14% 50% Median
23 24% 36%  
24 6% 12%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.8%  
14 7% 99.5%  
15 19% 93%  
16 14% 74%  
17 21% 60% Median
18 10% 39%  
19 14% 29%  
20 11% 15%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.4% 99.9%  
8 3% 98%  
9 3% 96%  
10 44% 93% Last Result, Median
11 6% 49%  
12 7% 42%  
13 16% 35%  
14 17% 20%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 0.6% 99.5%  
6 5% 98.9% Last Result
7 4% 94%  
8 66% 91% Median
9 5% 25%  
10 5% 20%  
11 13% 15%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 38%  
2 24% 24%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – sp.a – CD&V 88 82 100% 78–85 77–86 77–87 75–88
N-VA – Open Vld – CD&V 89 79 100% 76–82 75–83 74–84 72–86
sp.a – Open Vld – CD&V – Groen 74 74 100% 71–77 70–78 69–79 68–81
sp.a – Open Vld – CD&V 64 63 59% 59–67 58–67 57–68 56–70
N-VA – CD&V 70 58 3% 54–61 53–62 53–63 51–64
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 57 2% 53–60 53–61 52–62 50–64
sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0% 50–57 49–58 49–58 47–60
sp.a – CD&V – Groen 55 53 0% 49–56 49–57 48–58 46–59
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 49 0% 46–52 45–53 44–54 43–55
sp.a – Open Vld 37 46 0% 43–49 41–50 40–51 38–52
sp.a – CD&V 45 41 0% 38–45 37–46 36–46 35–48
Open Vld – CD&V 46 39 0% 35–42 34–43 34–44 33–45

N-VA – sp.a – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 1.2% 98.8%  
77 4% 98%  
78 5% 94%  
79 6% 88%  
80 10% 82%  
81 13% 73% Median
82 17% 60%  
83 19% 43%  
84 10% 23%  
85 6% 14%  
86 4% 8%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

N-VA – Open Vld – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 2% 99.2%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 6% 91%  
77 12% 85%  
78 13% 73%  
79 19% 60% Median
80 12% 40%  
81 8% 28%  
82 11% 20%  
83 5% 9%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 2%  
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld – CD&V – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.9% 99.6%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 5% 96%  
71 7% 91%  
72 9% 84%  
73 14% 76% Median
74 14% 62% Last Result
75 12% 48%  
76 14% 36%  
77 12% 21%  
78 6% 10%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.6%  
57 2% 98.9%  
58 4% 97%  
59 6% 93%  
60 8% 87%  
61 11% 79%  
62 10% 68%  
63 15% 59% Median, Majority
64 15% 44% Last Result
65 8% 29%  
66 10% 20%  
67 7% 11%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 1.2% 99.2%  
53 4% 98%  
54 7% 94%  
55 9% 88%  
56 12% 79%  
57 15% 67% Median
58 16% 52%  
59 16% 36%  
60 9% 21%  
61 5% 12%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 3% Majority
64 0.8% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100% Last Result
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.4%  
52 3% 98.5%  
53 6% 96%  
54 6% 90%  
55 9% 84%  
56 13% 75% Median
57 20% 62%  
58 13% 43%  
59 11% 30%  
60 9% 19%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.0% 2% Majority
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.6%  
48 1.4% 98.9%  
49 5% 98%  
50 8% 92%  
51 10% 85% Median
52 10% 74%  
53 14% 64%  
54 11% 50%  
55 17% 39% Last Result
56 11% 22%  
57 5% 11%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

sp.a – CD&V – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 1.0% 99.2%  
48 2% 98%  
49 7% 96%  
50 10% 89%  
51 12% 79% Median
52 11% 67%  
53 14% 56%  
54 14% 42%  
55 14% 28% Last Result
56 8% 14%  
57 3% 7%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.7% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.5%  
45 4% 97%  
46 8% 92%  
47 17% 84%  
48 14% 67% Median
49 13% 53% Last Result
50 13% 40%  
51 11% 27%  
52 6% 15%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100% Last Result
38 0.5% 100%  
39 0.9% 99.5%  
40 1.1% 98.5%  
41 2% 97%  
42 5% 95%  
43 12% 90%  
44 12% 79%  
45 13% 67%  
46 12% 54% Median
47 19% 43%  
48 9% 24%  
49 7% 15%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

sp.a – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 6% 93%  
39 12% 87%  
40 14% 75%  
41 12% 62% Median
42 12% 50%  
43 15% 38%  
44 11% 23%  
45 8% 13% Last Result
46 3% 5%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Open Vld – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 89%  
37 14% 79%  
38 12% 65%  
39 16% 53% Median
40 14% 37%  
41 9% 23%  
42 8% 14%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations