Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 27 November–1 December 2014
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 30.9% | 28.8–33.1% | 28.3–33.7% | 27.8–34.3% | 26.8–35.3% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 18.2% | 16.6–20.1% | 16.1–20.7% | 15.7–21.1% | 14.9–22.1% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.1% | 13.6–16.9% | 13.2–17.4% | 12.8–17.8% | 12.1–18.7% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 13.3% | 11.9–15.0% | 11.5–15.5% | 11.1–15.9% | 10.4–16.8% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.9–11.8% | 8.6–12.2% | 8.3–12.6% | 7.7–13.3% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.5–6.2% |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% | 0.3–2.2% |
| Piratenpartij | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 42 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–48 |
| CD&V | 27 | 23 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 20–28 | 19–29 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 16–24 | 14–26 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 15–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 13–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 10–17 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 4 | 3–7 | 1–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piratenpartij | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 8% | 96% | |
| 39 | 8% | 89% | |
| 40 | 12% | 80% | |
| 41 | 13% | 68% | |
| 42 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 43 | 20% | 39% | Last Result |
| 44 | 7% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 12% | |
| 46 | 4% | 7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 10% | 99.0% | |
| 21 | 16% | 89% | |
| 22 | 15% | 73% | |
| 23 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 49% | |
| 25 | 10% | 35% | |
| 26 | 10% | 24% | |
| 27 | 10% | 15% | Last Result |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 17 | 3% | 97% | |
| 18 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 19 | 47% | 88% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 41% | |
| 21 | 10% | 30% | |
| 22 | 7% | 20% | |
| 23 | 6% | 13% | |
| 24 | 6% | 8% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 4% | 94% | |
| 15 | 5% | 90% | |
| 16 | 6% | 86% | |
| 17 | 7% | 79% | |
| 18 | 13% | 72% | |
| 19 | 44% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 10% | 15% | |
| 21 | 2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 10% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 11 | 3% | 89% | |
| 12 | 3% | 87% | |
| 13 | 10% | 84% | |
| 14 | 53% | 74% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 20% | |
| 16 | 4% | 8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 3% | 96% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 3 | 17% | 91% | |
| 4 | 32% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 41% | |
| 6 | 26% | 38% | Last Result |
| 7 | 5% | 12% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 88% | |
| 2 | 69% | 79% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 10% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lijst Dedecker
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Piratenpartij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 85 | 100% | 81–89 | 81–90 | 80–91 | 78–93 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 83 | 100% | 79–87 | 78–88 | 77–89 | 76–91 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 75 | 100% | 72–79 | 70–80 | 70–80 | 68–82 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 65 | 82% | 62–69 | 61–70 | 60–71 | 58–73 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 61 | 35% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 54–68 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 59 | 12% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 52–66 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 57 | 3% | 53–61 | 52–62 | 52–63 | 50–65 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 44–58 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 46 | 0% | 43–50 | 42–51 | 41–52 | 40–53 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 43 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 37–51 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 34–48 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 38 | 0% | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 | 31–45 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98% | |
| 81 | 7% | 96% | |
| 82 | 6% | 89% | |
| 83 | 7% | 83% | |
| 84 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 85 | 14% | 52% | |
| 86 | 11% | 38% | |
| 87 | 6% | 27% | |
| 88 | 9% | 22% | Last Result |
| 89 | 7% | 13% | |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 4% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 3% | 93% | |
| 80 | 3% | 90% | |
| 81 | 12% | 87% | |
| 82 | 17% | 74% | |
| 83 | 11% | 58% | |
| 84 | 14% | 47% | Median |
| 85 | 13% | 33% | |
| 86 | 6% | 20% | |
| 87 | 8% | 14% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 3% | 95% | |
| 72 | 8% | 91% | |
| 73 | 10% | 84% | |
| 74 | 18% | 74% | Last Result |
| 75 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 76 | 10% | 42% | |
| 77 | 10% | 31% | |
| 78 | 12% | 22% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 5% | 6% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 10% | 91% | |
| 63 | 12% | 82% | Majority |
| 64 | 10% | 70% | |
| 65 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 42% | |
| 67 | 9% | 29% | |
| 68 | 5% | 20% | |
| 69 | 7% | 14% | |
| 70 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 6% | 92% | |
| 59 | 8% | 86% | |
| 60 | 17% | 78% | |
| 61 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 62 | 14% | 48% | |
| 63 | 10% | 35% | Majority |
| 64 | 11% | 24% | Last Result |
| 65 | 6% | 13% | |
| 66 | 3% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 88% | |
| 57 | 18% | 81% | |
| 58 | 10% | 64% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 54% | |
| 60 | 12% | 40% | |
| 61 | 7% | 28% | |
| 62 | 9% | 21% | |
| 63 | 5% | 12% | Majority |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 6% | 89% | |
| 55 | 18% | 83% | Last Result |
| 56 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 55% | |
| 58 | 10% | 41% | |
| 59 | 9% | 31% | |
| 60 | 8% | 22% | |
| 61 | 8% | 14% | |
| 62 | 3% | 6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 48 | 6% | 91% | |
| 49 | 6% | 85% | |
| 50 | 7% | 79% | |
| 51 | 12% | 71% | |
| 52 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 53 | 11% | 33% | |
| 54 | 10% | 23% | |
| 55 | 3% | 12% | |
| 56 | 6% | 9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 10% | 92% | |
| 44 | 9% | 82% | |
| 45 | 14% | 73% | |
| 46 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 19% | 48% | |
| 48 | 9% | 28% | |
| 49 | 9% | 19% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 10% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 8% | 92% | |
| 41 | 14% | 85% | |
| 42 | 10% | 71% | Median |
| 43 | 13% | 61% | |
| 44 | 14% | 48% | |
| 45 | 10% | 34% | Last Result |
| 46 | 10% | 24% | |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 3% | 95% | |
| 38 | 5% | 92% | |
| 39 | 7% | 87% | |
| 40 | 15% | 80% | |
| 41 | 19% | 65% | |
| 42 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 43 | 14% | 38% | |
| 44 | 11% | 24% | |
| 45 | 5% | 13% | |
| 46 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 48 | 2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 33 | 3% | 96% | |
| 34 | 3% | 93% | |
| 35 | 5% | 90% | |
| 36 | 7% | 85% | |
| 37 | 10% | 78% | Last Result |
| 38 | 34% | 69% | Median |
| 39 | 10% | 35% | |
| 40 | 11% | 25% | |
| 41 | 6% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–1 December 2014
Calculations
- Sample size: 773
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.16%