Opinion Poll by AQ Rate for Het Laatste Nieuws, 4–5 December 2014
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.0% | 26.0–30.1% | 25.4–30.7% | 25.0–31.2% | 24.0–32.2% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 17.0% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.5–19.8% | 13.8–20.7% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 16.0% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.6–18.7% | 12.9–19.6% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 14.0% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.1–16.2% | 11.7–16.6% | 11.1–17.4% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.2–14.0% | 9.9–14.4% | 9.3–15.2% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.2–8.6% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 38 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 32–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 21 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 17–27 |
| sp.a | 18 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Groen | 10 | 19 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 16–24 | 14–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 16 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 12–19 | 12–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 6 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 1–8 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 96% | |
| 36 | 8% | 91% | |
| 37 | 17% | 83% | |
| 38 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 39 | 22% | 49% | |
| 40 | 6% | 27% | |
| 41 | 7% | 20% | |
| 42 | 8% | 13% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 19 | 4% | 97% | |
| 20 | 13% | 93% | |
| 21 | 36% | 80% | Median |
| 22 | 14% | 44% | |
| 23 | 8% | 30% | |
| 24 | 6% | 22% | |
| 25 | 7% | 16% | |
| 26 | 4% | 9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 4% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 19 | 27% | 95% | |
| 20 | 9% | 68% | |
| 21 | 7% | 59% | |
| 22 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 42% | |
| 24 | 17% | 23% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98% | |
| 17 | 25% | 94% | |
| 18 | 9% | 69% | |
| 19 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 20 | 13% | 48% | |
| 21 | 11% | 35% | |
| 22 | 9% | 24% | |
| 23 | 9% | 14% | |
| 24 | 5% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 22% | 94% | |
| 14 | 7% | 72% | |
| 15 | 11% | 66% | |
| 16 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 43% | |
| 18 | 12% | 25% | |
| 19 | 11% | 12% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 6% | 98% | |
| 4 | 22% | 92% | |
| 5 | 7% | 71% | |
| 6 | 32% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 4% | 32% | |
| 8 | 28% | 28% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 3% | |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 82 | 100% | 78–86 | 77–87 | 76–88 | 75–90 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – Open Vld | 74 | 79 | 100% | 75–82 | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–86 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 76 | 100% | 73–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 | 69–84 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 63 | 54% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–68 | 55–71 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 63 | 54% | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–68 | 55–71 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 60 | 23% | 57–64 | 56–66 | 55–67 | 54–69 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 59 | 14% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 52–67 |
| sp.a – Groen – Open Vld | 47 | 57 | 2% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 50–62 | 49–64 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 44 | 0% | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–50 | 37–51 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 44 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–49 | 38–49 | 37–50 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 38 | 0% | 34–41 | 33–42 | 33–44 | 31–45 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 37 | 0% | 33–41 | 32–42 | 32–42 | 31–44 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 77 | 4% | 97% | |
| 78 | 5% | 93% | |
| 79 | 7% | 87% | |
| 80 | 11% | 80% | |
| 81 | 15% | 69% | Median |
| 82 | 14% | 54% | |
| 83 | 11% | 39% | |
| 84 | 7% | 29% | |
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 6% | 14% | |
| 87 | 4% | 8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 89 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 75 | 6% | 93% | |
| 76 | 9% | 87% | |
| 77 | 8% | 78% | |
| 78 | 16% | 70% | Median |
| 79 | 16% | 54% | |
| 80 | 18% | 38% | |
| 81 | 7% | 20% | |
| 82 | 6% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 4% | 94% | |
| 73 | 9% | 90% | |
| 74 | 13% | 82% | |
| 75 | 13% | 68% | Median |
| 76 | 12% | 56% | |
| 77 | 12% | 43% | |
| 78 | 9% | 32% | |
| 79 | 9% | 23% | |
| 80 | 5% | 14% | |
| 81 | 5% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 5% | 93% | |
| 60 | 5% | 88% | |
| 61 | 11% | 83% | |
| 62 | 17% | 71% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 54% | Majority |
| 64 | 9% | 39% | |
| 65 | 10% | 30% | |
| 66 | 8% | 20% | |
| 67 | 7% | 13% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 6% | 93% | |
| 60 | 5% | 87% | |
| 61 | 11% | 82% | |
| 62 | 17% | 71% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 54% | Majority |
| 64 | 9% | 39% | |
| 65 | 10% | 30% | |
| 66 | 8% | 20% | |
| 67 | 7% | 12% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 7% | 93% | |
| 58 | 12% | 86% | |
| 59 | 14% | 74% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 60% | |
| 61 | 11% | 47% | |
| 62 | 13% | 36% | |
| 63 | 10% | 23% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 13% | |
| 65 | 3% | 8% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 6% | 93% | |
| 56 | 6% | 87% | |
| 57 | 11% | 81% | |
| 58 | 12% | 70% | |
| 59 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 47% | |
| 61 | 8% | 32% | |
| 62 | 10% | 24% | |
| 63 | 9% | 14% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Groen – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | |
| 53 | 8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 9% | 85% | |
| 55 | 9% | 76% | |
| 56 | 11% | 68% | |
| 57 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 58 | 16% | 42% | |
| 59 | 11% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 15% | |
| 61 | 4% | 8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 3% | 97% | |
| 41 | 6% | 93% | |
| 42 | 8% | 87% | |
| 43 | 18% | 80% | |
| 44 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 45 | 16% | 46% | |
| 46 | 8% | 29% | |
| 47 | 9% | 22% | |
| 48 | 6% | 13% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 4% | 97% | |
| 40 | 11% | 93% | |
| 41 | 8% | 82% | |
| 42 | 11% | 74% | |
| 43 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 44 | 17% | 51% | |
| 45 | 13% | 34% | Last Result |
| 46 | 7% | 21% | |
| 47 | 5% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 9% | 94% | |
| 35 | 10% | 85% | |
| 36 | 14% | 76% | |
| 37 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 52% | |
| 39 | 14% | 39% | |
| 40 | 11% | 25% | |
| 41 | 5% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 7% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 92% | |
| 34 | 6% | 88% | |
| 35 | 8% | 83% | |
| 36 | 15% | 75% | |
| 37 | 15% | 60% | Last Result |
| 38 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 39 | 9% | 31% | |
| 40 | 8% | 23% | |
| 41 | 7% | 14% | |
| 42 | 6% | 7% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: AQ Rate
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 4–5 December 2014
Calculations
- Sample size: 794
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.62%