Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 5–11 January 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 27.8% | 26.1–29.6% | 25.6–30.2% | 25.2–30.6% | 24.4–31.5% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 18.3% | 16.8–19.9% | 16.4–20.4% | 16.1–20.8% | 15.4–21.6% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.7% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.7% | 13.6–18.1% | 13.0–18.8% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.6–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.3% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.0% | 8.6–12.4% | 8.1–13.0% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 23 | 21–27 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 20–29 |
| sp.a | 18 | 20 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 14–24 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 12–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 10–17 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 94% | |
| 36 | 13% | 87% | |
| 37 | 29% | 75% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 46% | |
| 39 | 15% | 29% | |
| 40 | 7% | 14% | |
| 41 | 4% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 18% | 94% | |
| 22 | 13% | 75% | |
| 23 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 20% | 49% | |
| 25 | 9% | 30% | |
| 26 | 9% | 20% | |
| 27 | 9% | 11% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 19 | 40% | 95% | |
| 20 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 39% | |
| 22 | 11% | 30% | |
| 23 | 10% | 19% | |
| 24 | 6% | 9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 2% | 98% | |
| 17 | 4% | 96% | |
| 18 | 10% | 92% | |
| 19 | 49% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 19% | 34% | |
| 21 | 6% | 15% | |
| 22 | 5% | 9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 3% | 93% | |
| 12 | 4% | 90% | |
| 13 | 9% | 86% | |
| 14 | 60% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 18% | |
| 16 | 4% | 7% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 3% | 93% | |
| 6 | 29% | 90% | Last Result |
| 7 | 7% | 61% | |
| 8 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 9 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 86% | |
| 2 | 70% | 75% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 81 | 100% | 79–84 | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–88 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 80 | 100% | 77–83 | 76–84 | 76–85 | 74–87 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 77 | 100% | 74–80 | 73–80 | 73–81 | 72–83 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 63 | 60% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 59–68 | 58–70 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 25% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 55–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 59 | 8% | 56–62 | 56–63 | 55–64 | 54–66 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 57 | 2% | 55–61 | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–64 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 53 | 0% | 51–57 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 47–60 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 44 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 40–49 | 39–50 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–50 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 43 | 0% | 40–46 | 39–46 | 39–47 | 37–49 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 39 | 0% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–46 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 78 | 4% | 97% | |
| 79 | 7% | 93% | |
| 80 | 23% | 86% | Median |
| 81 | 20% | 63% | |
| 82 | 14% | 43% | |
| 83 | 10% | 28% | |
| 84 | 9% | 18% | |
| 85 | 5% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 76 | 6% | 98% | |
| 77 | 6% | 92% | |
| 78 | 9% | 86% | |
| 79 | 11% | 77% | Median |
| 80 | 19% | 65% | |
| 81 | 15% | 46% | |
| 82 | 16% | 32% | |
| 83 | 7% | 15% | |
| 84 | 4% | 8% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 75 | 10% | 88% | |
| 76 | 22% | 78% | Median |
| 77 | 18% | 56% | |
| 78 | 15% | 38% | |
| 79 | 11% | 23% | |
| 80 | 7% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 95% | |
| 61 | 10% | 90% | |
| 62 | 19% | 79% | Median |
| 63 | 17% | 60% | Majority |
| 64 | 17% | 44% | Last Result |
| 65 | 12% | 27% | |
| 66 | 7% | 15% | |
| 67 | 4% | 7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 5% | 97% | |
| 58 | 9% | 92% | |
| 59 | 11% | 83% | |
| 60 | 10% | 72% | Median |
| 61 | 21% | 61% | |
| 62 | 15% | 40% | |
| 63 | 12% | 25% | Majority |
| 64 | 6% | 14% | |
| 65 | 4% | 7% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 56 | 5% | 95% | |
| 57 | 9% | 90% | |
| 58 | 14% | 81% | |
| 59 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 42% | |
| 61 | 11% | 28% | |
| 62 | 9% | 17% | |
| 63 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 8% | 93% | Last Result |
| 56 | 12% | 85% | |
| 57 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 48% | |
| 59 | 13% | 33% | |
| 60 | 10% | 20% | |
| 61 | 5% | 10% | |
| 62 | 2% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 4% | 96% | |
| 51 | 8% | 91% | |
| 52 | 22% | 83% | |
| 53 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 54 | 9% | 44% | |
| 55 | 13% | 35% | |
| 56 | 9% | 23% | |
| 57 | 9% | 14% | |
| 58 | 3% | 5% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 7% | 94% | |
| 42 | 12% | 87% | |
| 43 | 22% | 75% | Median |
| 44 | 14% | 53% | |
| 45 | 14% | 38% | Last Result |
| 46 | 12% | 24% | |
| 47 | 7% | 12% | |
| 48 | 3% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 41 | 4% | 97% | |
| 42 | 9% | 93% | |
| 43 | 16% | 84% | |
| 44 | 15% | 69% | |
| 45 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 29% | |
| 47 | 9% | 16% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 39 | 5% | 98% | |
| 40 | 14% | 93% | |
| 41 | 10% | 79% | |
| 42 | 15% | 69% | Median |
| 43 | 18% | 54% | |
| 44 | 14% | 37% | |
| 45 | 11% | 23% | |
| 46 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 38 | 26% | 90% | |
| 39 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 10% | 47% | |
| 41 | 13% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 25% | |
| 43 | 8% | 13% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 January 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1043
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.91%