Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 23–28 January 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 30.2% | 28.5–32.1% | 28.0–32.6% | 27.5–33.1% | 26.7–34.0% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.3–19.1% | 14.9–19.5% | 14.3–20.3% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.8% | 12.8–17.2% | 12.2–17.9% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 14.7% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.0–16.6% | 12.7–17.0% | 12.0–17.7% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.5–12.3% | 8.0–12.9% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 41 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 |
| CD&V | 27 | 21 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 17–27 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 20 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 15–24 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 4–11 |
| PVDA | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 9% | 93% | |
| 39 | 14% | 83% | |
| 40 | 15% | 69% | |
| 41 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 42 | 16% | 39% | |
| 43 | 16% | 22% | Last Result |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 25% | 94% | |
| 21 | 35% | 69% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 34% | |
| 23 | 11% | 24% | |
| 24 | 5% | 13% | |
| 25 | 5% | 8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 40% | 95% | Last Result |
| 20 | 30% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 25% | |
| 22 | 8% | 15% | |
| 23 | 5% | 7% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 3% | 97% | |
| 17 | 5% | 94% | |
| 18 | 11% | 89% | Last Result |
| 19 | 62% | 79% | Median |
| 20 | 7% | 17% | |
| 21 | 3% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 5% | 93% | |
| 12 | 4% | 89% | |
| 13 | 9% | 85% | |
| 14 | 59% | 76% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 17% | |
| 16 | 4% | 5% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 11% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 7 | 5% | 88% | |
| 8 | 74% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 3% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 6% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 2 | 47% | 49% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 82 | 100% | 79–85 | 78–86 | 78–87 | 76–88 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 81 | 100% | 79–83 | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–87 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen | 74 | 74 | 100% | 71–77 | 70–78 | 70–78 | 68–80 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 62 | 44% | 59–64 | 58–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 60 | 19% | 58–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 55 | 0.1% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–61 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 54 | 0% | 51–57 | 50–58 | 50–58 | 49–60 |
| Open Vld – sp.a – Groen | 47 | 53 | 0% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 46–58 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 49 | 0% | 46–51 | 45–52 | 45–53 | 43–54 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 41 | 0% | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 36–48 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 40 | 0% | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 33–45 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 78 | 3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 6% | 95% | |
| 80 | 10% | 89% | |
| 81 | 17% | 80% | |
| 82 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 83 | 21% | 41% | |
| 84 | 10% | 20% | |
| 85 | 4% | 11% | |
| 86 | 3% | 6% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98% | |
| 78 | 5% | 96% | |
| 79 | 9% | 91% | |
| 80 | 19% | 82% | |
| 81 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 82 | 22% | 42% | |
| 83 | 11% | 20% | |
| 84 | 4% | 9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 5% | |
| 86 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 6% | 95% | |
| 72 | 12% | 89% | |
| 73 | 20% | 77% | |
| 74 | 18% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 12% | 39% | |
| 76 | 12% | 27% | |
| 77 | 10% | 15% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 6% | 95% | |
| 60 | 11% | 89% | |
| 61 | 15% | 78% | |
| 62 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 63 | 20% | 44% | Majority |
| 64 | 14% | 24% | |
| 65 | 4% | 9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 5% | 97% | |
| 58 | 14% | 92% | |
| 59 | 18% | 79% | |
| 60 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 44% | |
| 62 | 12% | 31% | |
| 63 | 10% | 19% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 52 | 5% | 96% | |
| 53 | 9% | 91% | |
| 54 | 18% | 82% | |
| 55 | 22% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 14% | 42% | |
| 57 | 12% | 29% | |
| 58 | 8% | 16% | |
| 59 | 5% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 6% | 95% | |
| 52 | 9% | 89% | |
| 53 | 18% | 80% | |
| 54 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 55 | 13% | 39% | Last Result |
| 56 | 12% | 25% | |
| 57 | 7% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 48 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 6% | 92% | |
| 51 | 10% | 86% | |
| 52 | 23% | 76% | |
| 53 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 30% | |
| 55 | 8% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 9% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 6% | 98% | |
| 46 | 10% | 92% | |
| 47 | 14% | 82% | |
| 48 | 14% | 67% | |
| 49 | 18% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 50 | 16% | 35% | |
| 51 | 12% | 19% | |
| 52 | 4% | 7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 14% | 96% | |
| 40 | 21% | 82% | |
| 41 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 42 | 12% | 41% | |
| 43 | 11% | 29% | |
| 44 | 9% | 18% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 3% | 97% | |
| 38 | 8% | 94% | |
| 39 | 20% | 86% | |
| 40 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 41 | 11% | 41% | |
| 42 | 13% | 29% | |
| 43 | 7% | 16% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 4% | 96% | |
| 37 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 38 | 32% | 86% | |
| 39 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 31% | |
| 41 | 9% | 20% | |
| 42 | 6% | 11% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 January 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1035
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 0.88%