Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 5–9 March 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.8% | 26.7–31.1% | 26.1–31.7% | 25.5–32.3% | 24.5–33.4% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 16.6% | 14.9–18.6% | 14.4–19.1% | 14.1–19.6% | 13.3–20.6% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 16.4% | 14.7–18.3% | 14.2–18.8% | 13.8–19.3% | 13.0–20.3% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 15.3% | 13.7–17.2% | 13.2–17.8% | 12.8–18.2% | 12.1–19.2% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.2–11.1% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.6–12.0% | 7.0–12.8% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2–8.8% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.7–9.6% | 5.2–10.3% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.0% | 1.9–5.5% |
| Piratenpartij | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.5% | 0.5–2.9% |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 39 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 35–44 | 33–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 15–27 |
| sp.a | 18 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 20 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 15–27 |
| Groen | 10 | 13 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 7–17 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–11 | 4–11 | 4–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–5 |
| Piratenpartij | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lijst Dedecker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 94% | |
| 37 | 14% | 88% | |
| 38 | 14% | 74% | |
| 39 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 18% | 46% | |
| 41 | 9% | 27% | |
| 42 | 10% | 19% | |
| 43 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 3% | 97% | |
| 19 | 9% | 94% | |
| 20 | 19% | 85% | |
| 21 | 40% | 66% | Median |
| 22 | 8% | 26% | |
| 23 | 7% | 18% | |
| 24 | 4% | 11% | |
| 25 | 3% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 19 | 22% | 97% | |
| 20 | 14% | 75% | |
| 21 | 4% | 61% | |
| 22 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 23 | 17% | 42% | |
| 24 | 18% | 25% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 98.7% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 26% | 94% | Last Result |
| 20 | 27% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 42% | |
| 22 | 9% | 28% | |
| 23 | 12% | 19% | |
| 24 | 3% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 10 | 22% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 6% | 76% | |
| 12 | 12% | 70% | |
| 13 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 14 | 39% | 49% | |
| 15 | 7% | 11% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 6 | 21% | 95% | Last Result |
| 7 | 9% | 74% | |
| 8 | 54% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 11% | |
| 10 | 3% | 9% | |
| 11 | 5% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 2 | 38% | 40% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lijst Dedecker
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lijst Dedecker page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 81 | 100% | 77–84 | 76–86 | 76–87 | 74–88 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 82 | 100% | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–87 | 75–88 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 76 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 71–81 | 69–83 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 63 | 62% | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 | 56–71 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 21% | 57–64 | 56–64 | 55–66 | 54–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 57 | 1.1% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 50–64 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 56 | 0.6% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 49–63 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 55 | 0.3% | 52–58 | 50–59 | 49–60 | 48–62 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 46 | 0% | 44–50 | 42–51 | 42–52 | 40–54 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 43 | 0% | 39–46 | 39–48 | 38–48 | 36–50 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 43 | 0% | 39–46 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 36–49 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 42 | 0% | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 35–49 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 6% | 98% | |
| 77 | 5% | 92% | |
| 78 | 7% | 87% | |
| 79 | 9% | 80% | |
| 80 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 81 | 14% | 58% | |
| 82 | 17% | 44% | |
| 83 | 15% | 27% | |
| 84 | 3% | 12% | |
| 85 | 4% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 5% | |
| 87 | 2% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 77 | 3% | 97% | |
| 78 | 5% | 94% | |
| 79 | 5% | 89% | |
| 80 | 11% | 84% | |
| 81 | 14% | 73% | |
| 82 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 83 | 24% | 48% | |
| 84 | 11% | 25% | |
| 85 | 5% | 14% | |
| 86 | 4% | 8% | |
| 87 | 3% | 4% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 5% | 96% | |
| 73 | 13% | 91% | |
| 74 | 6% | 78% | Last Result |
| 75 | 11% | 71% | |
| 76 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 77 | 10% | 44% | |
| 78 | 16% | 34% | |
| 79 | 10% | 18% | |
| 80 | 4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 5% | 91% | |
| 61 | 11% | 87% | |
| 62 | 14% | 76% | |
| 63 | 12% | 62% | Median, Majority |
| 64 | 16% | 49% | Last Result |
| 65 | 13% | 33% | |
| 66 | 6% | 20% | |
| 67 | 8% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 9% | 84% | |
| 59 | 13% | 74% | |
| 60 | 10% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 21% | 51% | |
| 62 | 9% | 30% | |
| 63 | 10% | 21% | Majority |
| 64 | 7% | 11% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | |
| 53 | 5% | 93% | |
| 54 | 14% | 87% | |
| 55 | 9% | 74% | Last Result |
| 56 | 11% | 64% | |
| 57 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 58 | 11% | 32% | |
| 59 | 10% | 22% | |
| 60 | 6% | 12% | |
| 61 | 2% | 6% | |
| 62 | 3% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 51 | 4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 92% | |
| 53 | 15% | 87% | |
| 54 | 9% | 72% | |
| 55 | 9% | 63% | Last Result |
| 56 | 14% | 53% | Median |
| 57 | 20% | 39% | |
| 58 | 8% | 19% | |
| 59 | 5% | 11% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 97% | |
| 51 | 4% | 94% | |
| 52 | 13% | 91% | |
| 53 | 10% | 78% | |
| 54 | 12% | 68% | |
| 55 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 56 | 6% | 43% | |
| 57 | 20% | 37% | |
| 58 | 10% | 17% | |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 5% | 95% | |
| 44 | 9% | 90% | |
| 45 | 13% | 82% | |
| 46 | 19% | 69% | |
| 47 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 48 | 11% | 37% | |
| 49 | 8% | 26% | Last Result |
| 50 | 11% | 18% | |
| 51 | 4% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 9% | 96% | |
| 40 | 7% | 87% | |
| 41 | 13% | 80% | |
| 42 | 9% | 67% | |
| 43 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 44 | 9% | 38% | |
| 45 | 17% | 28% | Last Result |
| 46 | 4% | 11% | |
| 47 | 2% | 7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 38 | 8% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 90% | |
| 40 | 14% | 86% | |
| 41 | 6% | 72% | |
| 42 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 43 | 23% | 50% | |
| 44 | 10% | 27% | |
| 45 | 4% | 17% | |
| 46 | 6% | 13% | |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 12% | 91% | |
| 40 | 11% | 80% | |
| 41 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 42 | 18% | 52% | |
| 43 | 12% | 34% | |
| 44 | 8% | 21% | |
| 45 | 4% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 47 | 2% | 4% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 5–9 March 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 691
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.52%