Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 20–24 April 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.3% | 26.5–30.3% | 26.0–30.8% | 25.6–31.3% | 24.7–32.2% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.6–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.6% | 14.2–17.2% | 13.8–17.6% | 13.4–18.0% | 12.8–18.8% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–16.0% | 12.0–16.4% | 11.3–17.1% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.5% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 39 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 34–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 15–26 |
| sp.a | 18 | 20 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 13–24 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 6–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 7% | 95% | |
| 37 | 14% | 88% | |
| 38 | 18% | 74% | |
| 39 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 39% | |
| 41 | 12% | 27% | |
| 42 | 11% | 15% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98% | |
| 18 | 7% | 93% | |
| 19 | 12% | 86% | |
| 20 | 33% | 74% | Median |
| 21 | 27% | 41% | |
| 22 | 7% | 14% | |
| 23 | 3% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 8% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 19 | 32% | 91% | |
| 20 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 49% | |
| 22 | 10% | 39% | |
| 23 | 18% | 29% | |
| 24 | 9% | 11% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 17 | 4% | 96% | |
| 18 | 8% | 92% | |
| 19 | 64% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 6% | 20% | |
| 21 | 5% | 13% | |
| 22 | 4% | 9% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 13 | 4% | 95% | |
| 14 | 63% | 91% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 28% | |
| 16 | 8% | 17% | |
| 17 | 9% | 9% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 7 | 2% | 96% | |
| 8 | 67% | 95% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 28% | |
| 10 | 6% | 21% | |
| 11 | 11% | 15% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 35% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 80 | 100% | 77–82 | 76–83 | 76–84 | 74–86 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 78 | 100% | 75–82 | 74–82 | 73–83 | 72–84 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 75 | 100% | 72–77 | 71–78 | 70–79 | 69–80 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 60 | 16% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 56–65 | 54–66 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 59 | 9% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–63 | 53–65 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 56 | 0.5% | 53–59 | 52–60 | 52–61 | 50–63 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–62 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 54 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 50–59 | 48–60 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 48 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–54 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 35–47 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 40 | 0% | 38–43 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 34–46 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 5% | 98% | |
| 77 | 8% | 93% | |
| 78 | 10% | 85% | |
| 79 | 13% | 75% | Median |
| 80 | 19% | 62% | |
| 81 | 18% | 43% | |
| 82 | 16% | 25% | |
| 83 | 5% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 97% | |
| 75 | 5% | 94% | |
| 76 | 11% | 89% | |
| 77 | 15% | 78% | |
| 78 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 79 | 11% | 45% | |
| 80 | 13% | 34% | |
| 81 | 11% | 21% | |
| 82 | 7% | 11% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 69 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 71 | 4% | 96% | |
| 72 | 12% | 92% | |
| 73 | 16% | 80% | Median |
| 74 | 14% | 64% | Last Result |
| 75 | 15% | 51% | |
| 76 | 15% | 36% | |
| 77 | 13% | 21% | |
| 78 | 4% | 8% | |
| 79 | 3% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 94% | |
| 58 | 13% | 88% | |
| 59 | 15% | 75% | Median |
| 60 | 14% | 59% | |
| 61 | 15% | 45% | |
| 62 | 14% | 30% | |
| 63 | 10% | 16% | Majority |
| 64 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 6% | 94% | |
| 57 | 12% | 88% | |
| 58 | 15% | 76% | |
| 59 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 43% | |
| 61 | 12% | 30% | |
| 62 | 9% | 18% | |
| 63 | 7% | 9% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 13% | 88% | |
| 55 | 15% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 13% | 60% | |
| 57 | 13% | 47% | |
| 58 | 15% | 34% | |
| 59 | 12% | 19% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 7% | 95% | |
| 53 | 13% | 88% | |
| 54 | 15% | 75% | Median |
| 55 | 12% | 61% | Last Result |
| 56 | 13% | 49% | |
| 57 | 16% | 36% | |
| 58 | 12% | 20% | |
| 59 | 4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 22% | 93% | |
| 53 | 12% | 72% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 60% | |
| 55 | 13% | 47% | |
| 56 | 19% | 35% | |
| 57 | 7% | 16% | |
| 58 | 5% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 6% | 96% | |
| 45 | 10% | 91% | |
| 46 | 15% | 80% | |
| 47 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 48 | 15% | 52% | |
| 49 | 15% | 36% | Last Result |
| 50 | 12% | 21% | |
| 51 | 4% | 9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 10% | 94% | |
| 39 | 14% | 84% | |
| 40 | 14% | 70% | Median |
| 41 | 12% | 56% | |
| 42 | 14% | 44% | |
| 43 | 16% | 31% | |
| 44 | 10% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 38 | 27% | 92% | |
| 39 | 11% | 65% | Median |
| 40 | 12% | 54% | |
| 41 | 12% | 41% | |
| 42 | 19% | 30% | |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 96% | |
| 37 | 8% | 91% | |
| 38 | 11% | 84% | |
| 39 | 27% | 73% | Median |
| 40 | 23% | 46% | |
| 41 | 10% | 23% | |
| 42 | 5% | 13% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 20–24 April 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 963
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.08%