Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 20 April–3 May 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.5% | 26.7–30.3% | 26.2–30.9% | 25.8–31.3% | 25.0–32.2% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.8% | 18.1–24.7% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 16.1% | 14.7–17.6% | 14.3–18.1% | 14.0–18.5% | 13.3–19.2% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 14.3% | 13.0–15.8% | 12.7–16.2% | 12.3–16.6% | 11.7–17.4% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.3–14.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.2–8.0% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 38 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 26 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 21–33 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–26 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 10–19 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 4 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 0–8 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 96% | |
| 36 | 14% | 89% | |
| 37 | 16% | 75% | |
| 38 | 29% | 59% | Median |
| 39 | 18% | 30% | |
| 40 | 5% | 13% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 24 | 3% | 97% | |
| 25 | 7% | 94% | |
| 26 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 27 | 16% | 47% | Last Result |
| 28 | 7% | 32% | |
| 29 | 8% | 25% | |
| 30 | 10% | 17% | |
| 31 | 6% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 14% | 91% | Last Result |
| 20 | 17% | 77% | |
| 21 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 20% | 44% | |
| 23 | 17% | 24% | |
| 24 | 5% | 7% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 5% | 97% | |
| 16 | 4% | 91% | |
| 17 | 7% | 87% | |
| 18 | 21% | 80% | Last Result |
| 19 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 14% | 98% | |
| 14 | 23% | 84% | |
| 15 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 16 | 28% | 44% | |
| 17 | 15% | 16% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 3% | 98% | |
| 3 | 10% | 95% | |
| 4 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 46% | |
| 6 | 25% | 38% | Last Result |
| 7 | 4% | 13% | |
| 8 | 9% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 86 | 100% | 83–89 | 82–90 | 82–91 | 80–93 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 83 | 100% | 80–86 | 79–87 | 79–88 | 77–89 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen | 74 | 81 | 100% | 79–84 | 78–85 | 77–86 | 76–87 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 66 | 97% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–71 | 60–73 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 65 | 84% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 61–70 | 59–71 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 56 | 63 | 58% | 60–66 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 60 | 18% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–65 | 54–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 60 | 18% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–65 | 54–67 |
| Open Vld – sp.a – Groen | 47 | 54 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 50–59 | 48–60 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–55 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 45 | 0% | 43–49 | 41–49 | 41–50 | 39–51 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 43 | 0% | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–43 | 33–45 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 82 | 4% | 98% | |
| 83 | 10% | 94% | |
| 84 | 13% | 84% | |
| 85 | 18% | 71% | Median |
| 86 | 14% | 53% | |
| 87 | 17% | 40% | |
| 88 | 12% | 23% | |
| 89 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 90 | 2% | 6% | |
| 91 | 2% | 3% | |
| 92 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 79 | 3% | 98% | |
| 80 | 8% | 94% | |
| 81 | 11% | 86% | |
| 82 | 15% | 75% | |
| 83 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 84 | 14% | 41% | |
| 85 | 10% | 26% | |
| 86 | 7% | 16% | |
| 87 | 6% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 78 | 5% | 97% | |
| 79 | 7% | 92% | |
| 80 | 18% | 85% | |
| 81 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 82 | 15% | 44% | |
| 83 | 11% | 29% | |
| 84 | 9% | 18% | |
| 85 | 6% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 64 | 16% | 92% | Last Result |
| 65 | 13% | 76% | |
| 66 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 67 | 17% | 48% | |
| 68 | 12% | 31% | |
| 69 | 9% | 19% | |
| 70 | 5% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 6% | 98% | |
| 62 | 8% | 92% | |
| 63 | 12% | 84% | Majority |
| 64 | 19% | 72% | Median |
| 65 | 19% | 53% | |
| 66 | 11% | 34% | |
| 67 | 8% | 23% | |
| 68 | 8% | 15% | |
| 69 | 4% | 7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 6% | 96% | |
| 61 | 13% | 90% | |
| 62 | 19% | 77% | Median |
| 63 | 18% | 58% | Majority |
| 64 | 12% | 41% | |
| 65 | 12% | 28% | |
| 66 | 9% | 16% | |
| 67 | 4% | 7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | |
| 58 | 9% | 92% | |
| 59 | 22% | 83% | |
| 60 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 17% | 46% | |
| 62 | 12% | 29% | |
| 63 | 7% | 18% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 10% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | |
| 58 | 9% | 92% | |
| 59 | 22% | 83% | |
| 60 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 17% | 46% | |
| 62 | 12% | 29% | |
| 63 | 7% | 18% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 10% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 5% | 95% | |
| 52 | 10% | 90% | |
| 53 | 13% | 80% | |
| 54 | 21% | 67% | |
| 55 | 18% | 47% | Median |
| 56 | 10% | 28% | |
| 57 | 9% | 19% | |
| 58 | 5% | 9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 12% | 97% | |
| 46 | 11% | 85% | Last Result |
| 47 | 15% | 74% | Median |
| 48 | 15% | 59% | |
| 49 | 18% | 44% | |
| 50 | 12% | 26% | |
| 51 | 6% | 14% | |
| 52 | 4% | 8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 95% | |
| 43 | 7% | 91% | |
| 44 | 21% | 84% | |
| 45 | 22% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 46 | 13% | 41% | |
| 47 | 8% | 28% | |
| 48 | 9% | 20% | |
| 49 | 7% | 12% | |
| 50 | 3% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 6% | 97% | |
| 40 | 9% | 91% | |
| 41 | 11% | 82% | |
| 42 | 15% | 71% | Median |
| 43 | 23% | 56% | |
| 44 | 18% | 33% | |
| 45 | 7% | 15% | |
| 46 | 5% | 8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 3% | 95% | |
| 37 | 12% | 92% | Last Result |
| 38 | 17% | 81% | |
| 39 | 17% | 64% | |
| 40 | 14% | 47% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 34% | |
| 42 | 10% | 15% | |
| 43 | 3% | 6% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT
- Fieldwork period: 20 April–3 May 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1032
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.70%