Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 12–18 May 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 28.1% 26.1–30.3% 25.5–30.9% 25.0–31.4% 24.1–32.5%
CD&V 20.5% 17.2% 15.6–19.1% 15.1–19.6% 14.7–20.1% 13.9–21.0%
sp.a 14.0% 15.6% 14.1–17.4% 13.6–18.0% 13.2–18.4% 12.5–19.3%
Open Vld 14.1% 15.4% 13.8–17.2% 13.4–17.7% 13.0–18.1% 12.3–19.0%
Groen 8.7% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9% 8.0–12.3% 7.5–13.1%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 7.9% 6.8–9.3% 6.4–9.7% 6.2–10.0% 5.7–10.7%
PVDA 2.5% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 38 35–42 35–42 34–43 32–44
CD&V 27 21 20–25 19–26 19–27 17–27
sp.a 18 20 19–24 18–24 17–25 15–26
Open Vld 19 20 19–23 19–24 18–25 16–26
Groen 10 14 10–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Vlaams Belang 6 8 7–11 6–11 6–12 4–13
PVDA 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 1.2% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 12% 90%  
37 19% 78%  
38 20% 59% Median
39 12% 39%  
40 11% 26%  
41 5% 15%  
42 5% 10%  
43 4% 5% Last Result
44 0.5% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.8% 99.7%  
18 1.0% 98.9%  
19 5% 98%  
20 18% 92%  
21 32% 74% Median
22 12% 42%  
23 8% 30%  
24 5% 22%  
25 7% 17%  
26 5% 10%  
27 4% 4% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.8%  
16 0.7% 99.2%  
17 1.3% 98.5%  
18 4% 97% Last Result
19 44% 94%  
20 10% 50% Median
21 8% 40%  
22 9% 32%  
23 11% 23%  
24 8% 12%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.6% 1.1%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.8%  
16 0.5% 99.7%  
17 1.1% 99.1%  
18 2% 98%  
19 21% 95% Last Result
20 28% 74% Median
21 11% 46%  
22 13% 35%  
23 13% 22%  
24 6% 9%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 1.2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.9%  
9 0.4% 99.7%  
10 16% 99.3% Last Result
11 5% 84%  
12 3% 79%  
13 10% 76%  
14 47% 65% Median
15 11% 18%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 0.4% 98.9%  
6 8% 98.5% Last Result
7 5% 91%  
8 62% 86% Median
9 4% 23%  
10 5% 19%  
11 12% 14%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.7%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 12% 52% Median
2 38% 40%  
3 1.1% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 81 100% 77–84 76–86 76–87 74–88
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 81 100% 77–84 76–85 75–86 74–87
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 74 77 100% 73–80 72–81 71–81 70–83
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld 64 63 62% 60–67 59–68 58–69 57–71
N-VA – CD&V 70 60 20% 57–64 56–64 55–65 53–67
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 57 1.4% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 55 0.7% 53–59 51–60 51–61 49–63
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 55 0.1% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–61
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 46 0% 43–50 42–51 42–51 40–53
CD&V – Open Vld 46 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–49 36–50
CD&V – sp.a 45 42 0% 39–46 38–47 38–48 36–50
sp.a – Open Vld 37 41 0% 38–45 38–46 37–47 35–48

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 1.0% 99.2%  
76 3% 98%  
77 6% 95%  
78 10% 89%  
79 11% 79% Median
80 12% 68%  
81 13% 56%  
82 14% 43%  
83 15% 30%  
84 6% 14%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.6% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 3% 97%  
77 7% 94%  
78 9% 87%  
79 10% 78% Median
80 17% 68%  
81 13% 50%  
82 14% 37%  
83 10% 23%  
84 6% 13%  
85 3% 7%  
86 2% 3%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 3% 97%  
73 7% 95%  
74 10% 88% Last Result
75 11% 78% Median
76 13% 67%  
77 18% 54%  
78 16% 36%  
79 8% 20%  
80 7% 12%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 3% 98.8%  
59 6% 96%  
60 8% 90%  
61 9% 83% Median
62 12% 74%  
63 14% 62% Majority
64 16% 47% Last Result
65 11% 31%  
66 9% 20%  
67 5% 12%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.4%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 9% 91%  
58 13% 83%  
59 16% 70% Median
60 11% 54%  
61 14% 43%  
62 9% 29%  
63 9% 20% Majority
64 7% 12%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 2% 97%  
53 5% 95%  
54 11% 90%  
55 15% 78% Last Result
56 13% 64% Median
57 12% 51%  
58 12% 39%  
59 11% 26%  
60 8% 15%  
61 4% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.4% Majority
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 3% 98%  
52 4% 95%  
53 10% 91%  
54 15% 81%  
55 16% 66% Last Result, Median
56 12% 50%  
57 10% 38%  
58 13% 28%  
59 8% 15%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.4%  
63 0.5% 0.7% Majority
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
48 1.3% 99.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 4% 94%  
52 10% 90%  
53 16% 80%  
54 12% 64% Median
55 12% 52%  
56 12% 40%  
57 14% 27%  
58 6% 13%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.0%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 1.2% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 95%  
44 10% 89%  
45 14% 80%  
46 18% 65% Median
47 15% 47%  
48 12% 33%  
49 8% 21% Last Result
50 7% 13%  
51 4% 6%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.1%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.5%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 6% 97%  
40 13% 91%  
41 15% 77% Median
42 11% 63%  
43 12% 51%  
44 12% 39%  
45 13% 27%  
46 6% 15% Last Result
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 4%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.1%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 14% 87%  
41 13% 73% Median
42 12% 59%  
43 10% 47%  
44 15% 37%  
45 10% 22% Last Result
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98.6% Last Result
38 11% 97%  
39 15% 86%  
40 11% 71% Median
41 13% 61%  
42 14% 48%  
43 14% 34%  
44 9% 20%  
45 4% 11%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.2%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations