Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 9–14 September 2015

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 27.5% 25.5–29.7% 24.9–30.3% 24.4–30.8% 23.5–31.9%
sp.a 14.0% 16.2% 14.6–18.1% 14.2–18.6% 13.8–19.1% 13.0–20.0%
CD&V 20.5% 16.0% 14.4–17.8% 13.9–18.3% 13.5–18.8% 12.8–19.7%
Open Vld 14.1% 14.4% 12.8–16.1% 12.4–16.6% 12.0–17.1% 11.3–18.0%
Groen 8.7% 10.1% 8.8–11.6% 8.4–12.1% 8.1–12.5% 7.5–13.2%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 9.7% 8.4–11.2% 8.0–11.6% 7.7–12.0% 7.2–12.8%
PVDA 2.5% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–5.9%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.2% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.3% 0.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 37 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
sp.a 18 21 19–24 19–25 18–26 17–27
CD&V 27 20 18–22 17–23 16–25 15–26
Open Vld 19 19 18–22 16–23 15–23 13–25
Groen 10 14 10–15 10–16 10–17 9–17
Vlaams Belang 6 11 8–13 8–14 8–15 8–16
PVDA 0 2 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–5
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 94%  
35 7% 87%  
36 17% 80%  
37 27% 63% Median
38 14% 36%  
39 9% 22%  
40 7% 13%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 0.6% 99.6%  
18 2% 98.9% Last Result
19 28% 97%  
20 12% 69%  
21 13% 57% Median
22 8% 44%  
23 14% 36%  
24 16% 22%  
25 3% 6%  
26 1.2% 3%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 3% 98%  
17 4% 95%  
18 6% 91%  
19 17% 85%  
20 36% 68% Median
21 20% 33%  
22 5% 13%  
23 3% 8%  
24 2% 5%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.6% 1.1%  
27 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.0%  
15 2% 98%  
16 2% 96%  
17 4% 94%  
18 8% 91%  
19 41% 82% Last Result, Median
20 25% 41%  
21 6% 16%  
22 5% 11%  
23 4% 6%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.3% 99.7%  
10 17% 99.4% Last Result
11 4% 83%  
12 4% 79%  
13 9% 75%  
14 49% 66% Median
15 10% 17%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 18% 99.8%  
9 6% 82%  
10 7% 76%  
11 33% 68% Median
12 20% 35%  
13 8% 16%  
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 4%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 14% 82%  
2 61% 68% Median
3 4% 7%  
4 1.4% 3%  
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – sp.a – CD&V 88 78 100% 75–82 74–83 73–84 72–86
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 76 100% 73–80 72–81 71–82 69–84
sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld – Groen 74 74 100% 71–77 70–78 69–80 67–81
sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld 64 61 27% 57–64 56–66 55–66 54–68
N-VA – CD&V 70 57 2% 54–60 53–61 52–62 50–64
sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA 55 56 1.4% 53–59 52–61 51–62 49–64
sp.a – CD&V – Groen 55 54 0.3% 52–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 54 0.1% 51–57 49–58 48–59 47–61
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 48 0% 45–51 44–52 43–53 41–55
sp.a – CD&V 45 41 0% 38–45 38–46 37–47 35–48
sp.a – Open Vld 37 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–46 34–48
CD&V – Open Vld 46 39 0% 36–42 35–44 34–45 32–46

N-VA – sp.a – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.7%  
73 2% 98.9%  
74 4% 97%  
75 7% 93%  
76 15% 87%  
77 12% 72%  
78 14% 59% Median
79 11% 45%  
80 9% 34%  
81 11% 25%  
82 7% 14%  
83 3% 7%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.5% 1.0%  
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.6%  
70 1.2% 99.0%  
71 2% 98%  
72 4% 96%  
73 5% 92%  
74 8% 87%  
75 15% 79%  
76 15% 63% Median
77 18% 48%  
78 9% 30%  
79 9% 21%  
80 6% 13%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 1.5%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 1.1% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 5% 92%  
72 14% 86%  
73 17% 72%  
74 14% 55% Last Result, Median
75 13% 41%  
76 12% 28%  
77 8% 17%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.6%  
55 1.4% 98.9%  
56 3% 97%  
57 5% 94%  
58 13% 89%  
59 12% 76%  
60 12% 64% Median
61 12% 52%  
62 14% 40%  
63 11% 27% Majority
64 7% 16% Last Result
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 0.8% 99.3%  
52 3% 98.5%  
53 5% 96%  
54 7% 91%  
55 10% 85%  
56 14% 74%  
57 23% 60% Median
58 12% 38%  
59 9% 26%  
60 9% 16%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.4% 2% Majority
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.9% 99.5%  
51 1.5% 98.5%  
52 4% 97%  
53 6% 93%  
54 10% 87%  
55 17% 77% Last Result
56 16% 60%  
57 12% 43% Median
58 12% 31%  
59 9% 19%  
60 4% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.4% Majority
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

sp.a – CD&V – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.7% 99.6%  
49 1.1% 98.9%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 8% 92%  
53 19% 84%  
54 18% 65%  
55 14% 47% Last Result, Median
56 11% 33%  
57 9% 22%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Majority
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
48 2% 99.0%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 95%  
51 4% 91%  
52 15% 87%  
53 16% 71%  
54 14% 55% Median
55 10% 40%  
56 10% 30%  
57 12% 21%  
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.4% 99.4%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 8% 93%  
46 12% 84%  
47 15% 72%  
48 16% 57% Median
49 18% 41% Last Result
50 9% 24%  
51 7% 15%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

sp.a – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 1.1% 98.8%  
37 2% 98%  
38 7% 95%  
39 18% 89%  
40 11% 71%  
41 13% 60% Median
42 15% 47%  
43 9% 32%  
44 10% 23%  
45 7% 12% Last Result
46 3% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 0.6% 99.6%  
35 0.7% 99.0%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 96% Last Result
38 17% 93%  
39 13% 76%  
40 12% 63% Median
41 12% 51%  
42 10% 40%  
43 17% 30%  
44 7% 13%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.7% 99.4%  
34 2% 98.8%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 94%  
37 6% 89%  
38 12% 82%  
39 24% 71% Median
40 20% 46%  
41 8% 26%  
42 9% 17%  
43 3% 9%  
44 3% 5%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations