Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 28 September–4 October 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.8% | 27.1–30.7% | 26.6–31.2% | 26.1–31.7% | 25.3–32.6% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 17.8% | 16.3–19.4% | 15.9–19.8% | 15.5–20.2% | 14.9–21.0% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 14.5% | 13.1–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.4–16.8% | 11.8–17.5% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.5% | 11.3–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.1–15.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.0–11.6% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 39 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 33–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 22 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 12 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
| Groen | 10 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 4% | 96% | |
| 37 | 24% | 92% | |
| 38 | 17% | 68% | |
| 39 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 35% | |
| 41 | 8% | 18% | |
| 42 | 5% | 10% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 22% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 18% | 77% | |
| 22 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 23 | 9% | 48% | |
| 24 | 9% | 39% | |
| 25 | 17% | 30% | |
| 26 | 8% | 13% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98% | |
| 16 | 5% | 95% | |
| 17 | 7% | 91% | |
| 18 | 10% | 83% | Last Result |
| 19 | 56% | 73% | Median |
| 20 | 8% | 17% | |
| 21 | 3% | 10% | |
| 22 | 3% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 18% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 7% | 81% | |
| 15 | 6% | 74% | |
| 16 | 9% | 68% | |
| 17 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 48% | |
| 19 | 34% | 36% | Last Result |
| 20 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 10 | 4% | 96% | |
| 11 | 29% | 92% | |
| 12 | 23% | 63% | Median |
| 13 | 14% | 41% | |
| 14 | 10% | 27% | |
| 15 | 5% | 16% | |
| 16 | 10% | 11% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 2% | 97% | |
| 10 | 35% | 96% | Last Result |
| 11 | 10% | 61% | |
| 12 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 41% | |
| 14 | 24% | 25% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 93% | |
| 2 | 74% | 83% | Median |
| 3 | 6% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 80 | 100% | 76–84 | 76–85 | 75–86 | 74–87 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 78 | 100% | 75–81 | 74–83 | 73–83 | 71–85 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 70 | 99.6% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 63–76 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 34% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 57–67 | 55–69 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 58 | 7% | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 | 51–65 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 55 | 0.3% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 50–61 | 48–62 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 53 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 | 47–60 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 47–56 | 45–58 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 47 | 0% | 43–51 | 42–52 | 42–52 | 40–53 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 37–46 | 37–46 | 35–49 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 39 | 0% | 36–43 | 34–44 | 33–45 | 33–46 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 36 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 28–42 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 76 | 6% | 96% | |
| 77 | 7% | 89% | |
| 78 | 10% | 82% | |
| 79 | 12% | 73% | |
| 80 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 81 | 16% | 47% | |
| 82 | 9% | 31% | |
| 83 | 8% | 22% | |
| 84 | 6% | 13% | |
| 85 | 4% | 7% | |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 4% | 95% | |
| 75 | 7% | 91% | |
| 76 | 11% | 84% | |
| 77 | 13% | 73% | |
| 78 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 79 | 13% | 43% | |
| 80 | 10% | 30% | |
| 81 | 10% | 20% | |
| 82 | 5% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 5% | |
| 84 | 2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 10% | 91% | |
| 68 | 12% | 81% | |
| 69 | 15% | 70% | |
| 70 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 43% | |
| 72 | 15% | 31% | |
| 73 | 9% | 16% | |
| 74 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 5% | 98% | |
| 58 | 8% | 93% | |
| 59 | 11% | 85% | |
| 60 | 13% | 74% | |
| 61 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 49% | |
| 63 | 11% | 34% | Majority |
| 64 | 9% | 23% | |
| 65 | 7% | 14% | |
| 66 | 5% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 5% | 95% | |
| 55 | 6% | 90% | |
| 56 | 9% | 84% | |
| 57 | 14% | 75% | |
| 58 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 44% | |
| 60 | 10% | 30% | |
| 61 | 8% | 20% | |
| 62 | 5% | 12% | |
| 63 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 5% | 95% | |
| 52 | 8% | 90% | |
| 53 | 9% | 82% | |
| 54 | 13% | 73% | |
| 55 | 16% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 14% | 44% | |
| 57 | 9% | 30% | |
| 58 | 8% | 20% | |
| 59 | 6% | 12% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 49 | 5% | 96% | |
| 50 | 8% | 91% | |
| 51 | 9% | 83% | |
| 52 | 13% | 74% | |
| 53 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 45% | |
| 55 | 10% | 30% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 4% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 10% | 94% | |
| 49 | 14% | 85% | Last Result |
| 50 | 13% | 70% | |
| 51 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 52 | 15% | 47% | |
| 53 | 12% | 32% | |
| 54 | 11% | 20% | |
| 55 | 5% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 4% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 94% | |
| 44 | 6% | 89% | |
| 45 | 9% | 83% | |
| 46 | 13% | 74% | |
| 47 | 11% | 61% | Last Result |
| 48 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 49 | 11% | 31% | |
| 50 | 7% | 20% | |
| 51 | 7% | 13% | |
| 52 | 5% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | |
| 39 | 16% | 89% | |
| 40 | 13% | 73% | |
| 41 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 11% | 49% | |
| 43 | 11% | 38% | |
| 44 | 15% | 27% | |
| 45 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 46 | 3% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 97% | |
| 35 | 4% | 94% | |
| 36 | 5% | 91% | |
| 37 | 7% | 86% | |
| 38 | 12% | 79% | |
| 39 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 40 | 18% | 49% | |
| 41 | 11% | 31% | |
| 42 | 8% | 20% | |
| 43 | 5% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 7% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 97% | |
| 32 | 14% | 95% | |
| 33 | 8% | 81% | |
| 34 | 9% | 73% | |
| 35 | 9% | 64% | |
| 36 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 43% | Last Result |
| 38 | 23% | 30% | |
| 39 | 3% | 7% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 28 September–4 October 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 1030
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 1.45%