Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 3–7 December 2015
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 29.2% | 27.4–31.1% | 26.9–31.6% | 26.4–32.1% | 25.6–33.0% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.0% | 13.0–17.4% | 12.3–18.2% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.7% | 12.4–16.1% | 12.1–16.5% | 11.5–17.2% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.0–14.5% | 10.7–14.8% | 10.1–15.6% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.5–14.8% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.8% | 9.2–14.5% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 39 | 37–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| CD&V | 27 | 19 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–23 |
| sp.a | 18 | 18 | 16–19 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Groen | 10 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 12–19 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 5% | 96% | |
| 37 | 7% | 90% | |
| 38 | 16% | 83% | |
| 39 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 36% | |
| 41 | 7% | 21% | |
| 42 | 7% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 10% | 95% | |
| 17 | 13% | 85% | |
| 18 | 17% | 71% | |
| 19 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 31% | 40% | |
| 21 | 8% | 9% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 6% | 98% | |
| 16 | 4% | 92% | |
| 17 | 9% | 88% | |
| 18 | 32% | 79% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 38% | 48% | |
| 20 | 4% | 10% | |
| 21 | 2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 14% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 7% | 85% | |
| 15 | 8% | 78% | |
| 16 | 13% | 70% | |
| 17 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 31% | |
| 19 | 15% | 17% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98% | |
| 13 | 5% | 93% | |
| 14 | 13% | 89% | |
| 15 | 19% | 75% | |
| 16 | 48% | 56% | Median |
| 17 | 5% | 8% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 47% | 98% | |
| 15 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 35% | |
| 17 | 16% | 19% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 25% | |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 76 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 72–81 | 70–83 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 74 | 100% | 71–77 | 71–78 | 69–79 | 68–80 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 68 | 99.2% | 66–71 | 65–72 | 64–73 | 62–75 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 58 | 3% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 50–58 | 47–61 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–59 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 52 | 0% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–59 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 48–56 | 48–56 | 46–58 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 50 | 0% | 46–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 37 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 31–43 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 28–40 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 10% | 95% | |
| 74 | 11% | 85% | |
| 75 | 18% | 74% | |
| 76 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 77 | 15% | 38% | |
| 78 | 8% | 23% | |
| 79 | 6% | 15% | |
| 80 | 5% | 9% | |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 97% | |
| 71 | 7% | 95% | |
| 72 | 12% | 88% | |
| 73 | 14% | 76% | |
| 74 | 20% | 62% | |
| 75 | 18% | 42% | Median |
| 76 | 9% | 24% | |
| 77 | 8% | 15% | |
| 78 | 4% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 8% | 92% | |
| 67 | 15% | 84% | |
| 68 | 28% | 69% | |
| 69 | 18% | 41% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 2% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 10% | 93% | |
| 56 | 14% | 83% | |
| 57 | 17% | 69% | |
| 58 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 59 | 16% | 36% | |
| 60 | 7% | 20% | |
| 61 | 6% | 13% | |
| 62 | 5% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 50 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 3% | 96% | |
| 52 | 6% | 93% | |
| 53 | 13% | 87% | |
| 54 | 23% | 74% | |
| 55 | 29% | 51% | Median |
| 56 | 11% | 22% | |
| 57 | 5% | 10% | |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 5% | 94% | |
| 51 | 13% | 89% | |
| 52 | 11% | 76% | |
| 53 | 19% | 65% | |
| 54 | 18% | 46% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 28% | |
| 56 | 8% | 14% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 11% | 92% | |
| 51 | 18% | 81% | |
| 52 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 53 | 16% | 43% | |
| 54 | 13% | 26% | |
| 55 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 7% | 95% | |
| 50 | 12% | 88% | |
| 51 | 21% | 76% | |
| 52 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 53 | 16% | 37% | |
| 54 | 11% | 21% | |
| 55 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 7% | 97% | |
| 47 | 8% | 90% | Last Result |
| 48 | 15% | 82% | |
| 49 | 13% | 68% | |
| 50 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 51 | 14% | 39% | |
| 52 | 15% | 25% | |
| 53 | 5% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 9% | 95% | |
| 35 | 12% | 86% | |
| 36 | 16% | 74% | |
| 37 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 38 | 20% | 39% | |
| 39 | 12% | 19% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 12% | 87% | |
| 34 | 14% | 75% | |
| 35 | 21% | 60% | |
| 36 | 14% | 39% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 25% | |
| 38 | 7% | 12% | |
| 39 | 4% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 6% | 97% | |
| 32 | 11% | 91% | |
| 33 | 12% | 80% | |
| 34 | 12% | 68% | |
| 35 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 36% | |
| 37 | 14% | 24% | Last Result |
| 38 | 8% | 11% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 3–7 December 2015
Calculations
- Sample size: 990
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.11%