Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 22 February–9 March 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 27.3% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–31.0% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 19.1% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.2–21.2% | 16.8–21.7% | 16.1–22.5% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 14.7% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.0–17.8% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.2% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.8–13.8% | 9.3–14.5% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 34–39 | 33–39 | 33–40 | 31–42 |
| CD&V | 27 | 25 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 20–30 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 13–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 11–19 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 8–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 13% | 94% | |
| 35 | 13% | 81% | |
| 36 | 14% | 68% | |
| 37 | 33% | 54% | Median |
| 38 | 11% | 21% | |
| 39 | 6% | 10% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 5% | 97% | |
| 22 | 9% | 91% | |
| 23 | 11% | 82% | |
| 24 | 20% | 72% | |
| 25 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 18% | 34% | |
| 27 | 13% | 16% | Last Result |
| 28 | 2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 3% | 97% | |
| 17 | 6% | 94% | |
| 18 | 10% | 88% | Last Result |
| 19 | 59% | 78% | Median |
| 20 | 10% | 19% | |
| 21 | 3% | 9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 5% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 16 | 3% | 96% | |
| 17 | 8% | 93% | |
| 18 | 19% | 86% | |
| 19 | 38% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 20% | 28% | |
| 21 | 5% | 9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 2% | 98% | |
| 14 | 30% | 96% | |
| 15 | 34% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 32% | |
| 17 | 21% | 24% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 5% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 7 | 3% | 94% | |
| 8 | 72% | 92% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 20% | |
| 10 | 5% | 14% | |
| 11 | 8% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 12% | 89% | |
| 2 | 70% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 80 | 100% | 77–82 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 73–85 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 80 | 100% | 77–82 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 74–85 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 77 | 100% | 75–80 | 74–81 | 73–81 | 72–83 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 62 | 46% | 60–65 | 59–66 | 58–66 | 56–68 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 60 | 16% | 58–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 54–67 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 23% | 58–64 | 57–64 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 59 | 4% | 56–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–65 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–57 | 48–57 | 47–59 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–49 | 39–50 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 44 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–46 | 39–47 | 37–49 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–43 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 76 | 4% | 97% | |
| 77 | 7% | 92% | |
| 78 | 13% | 85% | |
| 79 | 15% | 72% | |
| 80 | 22% | 57% | |
| 81 | 18% | 36% | Median |
| 82 | 9% | 18% | |
| 83 | 5% | 8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 4% | 97% | |
| 77 | 8% | 93% | |
| 78 | 13% | 85% | |
| 79 | 14% | 73% | |
| 80 | 21% | 59% | |
| 81 | 18% | 38% | Median |
| 82 | 11% | 19% | |
| 83 | 5% | 9% | |
| 84 | 2% | 4% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 74 | 4% | 96% | Last Result |
| 75 | 8% | 92% | |
| 76 | 14% | 84% | |
| 77 | 23% | 70% | |
| 78 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 79 | 16% | 32% | |
| 80 | 10% | 16% | |
| 81 | 4% | 6% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 5% | 95% | |
| 60 | 10% | 90% | |
| 61 | 12% | 81% | |
| 62 | 22% | 68% | |
| 63 | 19% | 46% | Median, Majority |
| 64 | 15% | 27% | Last Result |
| 65 | 8% | 13% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 95% | |
| 58 | 8% | 90% | |
| 59 | 16% | 82% | |
| 60 | 18% | 66% | |
| 61 | 18% | 48% | Median |
| 62 | 14% | 30% | |
| 63 | 9% | 16% | Majority |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 7% | 92% | |
| 59 | 13% | 85% | |
| 60 | 13% | 72% | |
| 61 | 20% | 59% | |
| 62 | 15% | 38% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 23% | Majority |
| 64 | 7% | 11% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 92% | |
| 57 | 14% | 84% | |
| 58 | 17% | 70% | |
| 59 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 60 | 15% | 34% | |
| 61 | 10% | 19% | |
| 62 | 5% | 9% | |
| 63 | 3% | 4% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 6% | 94% | |
| 51 | 12% | 88% | |
| 52 | 14% | 76% | |
| 53 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 36% | |
| 55 | 13% | 24% | |
| 56 | 6% | 11% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 11% | 96% | |
| 43 | 14% | 85% | |
| 44 | 13% | 71% | |
| 45 | 28% | 58% | Median |
| 46 | 15% | 30% | |
| 47 | 8% | 15% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 96% | |
| 41 | 9% | 91% | |
| 42 | 12% | 82% | |
| 43 | 21% | 70% | |
| 44 | 17% | 49% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 32% | Last Result |
| 46 | 9% | 16% | |
| 47 | 4% | 7% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 5% | 95% | |
| 41 | 9% | 90% | |
| 42 | 13% | 81% | |
| 43 | 17% | 68% | |
| 44 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 45 | 18% | 30% | |
| 46 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | |
| 35 | 5% | 93% | |
| 36 | 8% | 88% | |
| 37 | 18% | 80% | Last Result |
| 38 | 32% | 62% | Median |
| 39 | 15% | 30% | |
| 40 | 7% | 15% | |
| 41 | 4% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT
- Fieldwork period: 22 February–9 March 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 4,194,304
- Error estimate: 0.75%