Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 31 March–4 April 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 25.7% 23.7–27.8% 23.2–28.3% 22.7–28.9% 21.8–29.9%
CD&V 20.5% 15.8% 14.2–17.6% 13.7–18.1% 13.4–18.5% 12.6–19.4%
sp.a 14.0% 15.0% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.6–17.7% 11.9–18.5%
Open Vld 14.1% 13.7% 12.2–15.4% 11.8–15.9% 11.4–16.3% 10.7–17.1%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 13.2% 11.7–14.8% 11.3–15.3% 10.9–15.7% 10.3–16.6%
Groen 8.7% 9.8% 8.5–11.3% 8.2–11.7% 7.9–12.1% 7.3–12.8%
PVDA 2.5% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.0% 3.3–6.3% 2.9–6.9%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.8% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.0% 0.9–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 34 31–37 30–38 30–38 29–40
CD&V 27 20 17–22 16–22 15–24 15–25
sp.a 18 19 17–22 16–23 16–24 14–25
Open Vld 19 19 16–20 14–21 13–22 13–23
Vlaams Belang 6 16 14–19 13–19 13–20 12–22
Groen 10 13 10–14 10–15 10–15 8–17
PVDA 0 2 2–5 1–5 0–5 0–5
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 5% 99.2%  
31 6% 94%  
32 8% 88%  
33 18% 81%  
34 19% 63% Median
35 16% 44%  
36 9% 28%  
37 10% 19%  
38 6% 8%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.7% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 4% 96%  
17 3% 92%  
18 5% 89%  
19 15% 84%  
20 49% 70% Median
21 9% 21%  
22 7% 11%  
23 1.4% 4%  
24 2% 3%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 1.5% 99.0%  
16 3% 98%  
17 6% 95%  
18 7% 89% Last Result
19 51% 82% Median
20 13% 31%  
21 6% 18%  
22 4% 12%  
23 4% 8%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 3% 96%  
15 2% 93%  
16 5% 91%  
17 14% 86%  
18 18% 72%  
19 31% 54% Last Result, Median
20 17% 24%  
21 2% 6%  
22 2% 4%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.5%  
13 5% 98%  
14 4% 94%  
15 8% 90%  
16 35% 82% Median
17 19% 47%  
18 18% 28%  
19 6% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 1.4%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.6%  
9 0.5% 99.3%  
10 21% 98.8% Last Result
11 7% 78%  
12 11% 71%  
13 15% 60% Median
14 35% 45%  
15 7% 10%  
16 1.0% 2%  
17 1.1% 1.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 3% 97%  
2 63% 94% Median
3 15% 32%  
4 5% 17%  
5 12% 12%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 73 100% 70–76 69–77 69–78 67–81
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 72 100% 68–76 68–77 67–77 65–79
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 74 70 99.8% 67–73 66–75 65–75 63–77
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld 64 58 3% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–64
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0.2% 51–58 50–59 49–60 47–61
N-VA – CD&V 70 54 0.1% 51–57 50–58 49–59 48–61
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 52 0% 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–59
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 51 0% 48–54 47–55 46–56 44–57
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 50 0% 47–54 46–54 45–56 43–57
CD&V – sp.a 45 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
CD&V – Open Vld 46 38 0% 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–44
sp.a – Open Vld 37 38 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–44

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 1.5% 99.3%  
69 3% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 11% 89%  
72 15% 78%  
73 16% 63% Median
74 17% 47%  
75 12% 30%  
76 9% 19%  
77 6% 9%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Majority
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 6% 96%  
69 7% 90%  
70 8% 82%  
71 10% 74%  
72 15% 64%  
73 17% 50% Median
74 11% 32%  
75 9% 21%  
76 6% 12%  
77 4% 6%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8% Majority
64 2% 99.2%  
65 3% 98%  
66 3% 95%  
67 7% 92%  
68 14% 85%  
69 11% 70%  
70 16% 59%  
71 16% 43% Median
72 12% 27%  
73 6% 16%  
74 4% 9% Last Result
75 3% 5%  
76 1.4% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 7% 91%  
55 7% 84%  
56 13% 77%  
57 14% 64%  
58 16% 50% Median
59 14% 34%  
60 9% 20%  
61 6% 12%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3% Majority
64 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 9% 93%  
52 11% 84%  
53 9% 73%  
54 15% 64% Median
55 19% 49% Last Result
56 12% 30%  
57 7% 18%  
58 5% 11%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Majority
64 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.8% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 4% 96%  
51 7% 92%  
52 11% 85%  
53 16% 74%  
54 17% 58% Median
55 16% 42%  
56 11% 26%  
57 8% 15%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.2%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.6%  
46 1.4% 98.9%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 94%  
49 11% 90%  
50 12% 79%  
51 10% 67%  
52 17% 57% Median
53 18% 40%  
54 10% 23%  
55 5% 13% Last Result
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 1.1% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 8% 92%  
49 13% 84% Last Result
50 18% 71% Median
51 16% 53%  
52 10% 37%  
53 13% 27%  
54 8% 15%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 1.0% 1.4%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 3% 98.6%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93% Last Result
48 12% 88%  
49 10% 76%  
50 21% 66%  
51 14% 45% Median
52 15% 31%  
53 6% 16%  
54 5% 10%  
55 2% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.5%  
35 4% 97%  
36 6% 93%  
37 7% 86%  
38 13% 80%  
39 31% 67% Median
40 14% 36%  
41 8% 22%  
42 6% 14%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 1.3% 99.2%  
33 4% 98%  
34 4% 94%  
35 7% 90%  
36 6% 83%  
37 13% 76%  
38 16% 63%  
39 20% 47% Median
40 15% 27%  
41 5% 12%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.7%  
32 3% 99.2%  
33 3% 97%  
34 5% 94%  
35 6% 89%  
36 12% 83%  
37 14% 71% Last Result
38 22% 57% Median
39 16% 35%  
40 9% 19%  
41 4% 10%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations