Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 6–12 May 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 24.2% | 22.6–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.7–26.9% | 20.9–27.8% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.6% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.5–17.9% | 12.9–18.7% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.3% | 12.2–15.7% | 11.9–16.1% | 11.3–16.8% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.2% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.0% | 11.2–16.7% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.6–15.0% | 11.3–15.4% | 10.7–16.1% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.8–13.8% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 33 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| sp.a | 18 | 20 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 13–22 |
| CD&V | 27 | 17 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 18 | 16–19 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 10–18 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 15% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 82% | |
| 32 | 10% | 69% | |
| 33 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 34 | 22% | 36% | |
| 35 | 7% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 7% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 19 | 38% | 96% | |
| 20 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 42% | |
| 22 | 11% | 28% | |
| 23 | 13% | 17% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98% | |
| 16 | 12% | 95% | |
| 17 | 28% | 83% | |
| 18 | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 13% | 27% | |
| 20 | 10% | 14% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 22% | 97% | |
| 16 | 24% | 74% | |
| 17 | 9% | 50% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 41% | |
| 19 | 15% | 29% | |
| 20 | 13% | 14% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 96% | |
| 15 | 3% | 93% | |
| 16 | 7% | 90% | |
| 17 | 22% | 83% | |
| 18 | 44% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 17% | Last Result |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 2% | 98% | |
| 13 | 8% | 96% | |
| 14 | 38% | 88% | |
| 15 | 32% | 50% | Median |
| 16 | 4% | 19% | |
| 17 | 12% | 14% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 49% | |
| 4 | 3% | 22% | |
| 5 | 18% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – sp.a – CD&V | 88 | 70 | 99.9% | 67–73 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 64–76 |
| sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 70 | 99.9% | 67–73 | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–76 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 67 | 98% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 63–72 | 61–73 |
| sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld | 64 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| sp.a – CD&V – Groen | 55 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 48–56 | 48–57 | 46–58 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 52 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 50 | 0% | 47–54 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 45–56 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 50 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| sp.a – CD&V | 45 | 38 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 38 | 0% | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–42 | 32–44 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
N-VA – sp.a – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 6% | 95% | |
| 68 | 14% | 89% | |
| 69 | 15% | 75% | |
| 70 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 44% | |
| 72 | 12% | 27% | |
| 73 | 8% | 15% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 5% | 97% | |
| 67 | 10% | 92% | |
| 68 | 12% | 81% | |
| 69 | 14% | 70% | |
| 70 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 37% | |
| 72 | 10% | 21% | |
| 73 | 5% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 75 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 5% | 98% | Majority |
| 64 | 7% | 93% | |
| 65 | 11% | 86% | |
| 66 | 11% | 75% | |
| 67 | 18% | 64% | |
| 68 | 17% | 46% | Median |
| 69 | 12% | 29% | |
| 70 | 9% | 18% | |
| 71 | 5% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – CD&V – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 5% | 97% | |
| 52 | 7% | 92% | |
| 53 | 12% | 85% | |
| 54 | 12% | 73% | Median |
| 55 | 18% | 61% | Last Result |
| 56 | 16% | 43% | |
| 57 | 12% | 28% | |
| 58 | 9% | 15% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 9% | 94% | |
| 53 | 15% | 85% | |
| 54 | 12% | 70% | |
| 55 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 56 | 17% | 44% | |
| 57 | 12% | 27% | |
| 58 | 8% | 15% | |
| 59 | 4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – CD&V – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 8% | 93% | |
| 50 | 11% | 86% | |
| 51 | 11% | 75% | |
| 52 | 17% | 63% | Median |
| 53 | 18% | 46% | |
| 54 | 14% | 28% | |
| 55 | 7% | 15% | Last Result |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 8% | 93% | |
| 51 | 18% | 85% | |
| 52 | 19% | 67% | |
| 53 | 14% | 48% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 34% | |
| 55 | 8% | 22% | |
| 56 | 10% | 14% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 7% | 96% | |
| 48 | 9% | 90% | |
| 49 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 50 | 18% | 65% | |
| 51 | 16% | 47% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 31% | |
| 53 | 10% | 20% | |
| 54 | 7% | 10% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 46 | 5% | 96% | |
| 47 | 8% | 91% | |
| 48 | 11% | 83% | |
| 49 | 22% | 72% | |
| 50 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 51 | 13% | 36% | |
| 52 | 11% | 23% | |
| 53 | 7% | 12% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 35 | 13% | 90% | |
| 36 | 12% | 77% | |
| 37 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 51% | |
| 39 | 18% | 34% | |
| 40 | 7% | 17% | |
| 41 | 5% | 9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 97% | |
| 35 | 5% | 95% | |
| 36 | 10% | 90% | |
| 37 | 27% | 80% | Last Result |
| 38 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 36% | |
| 40 | 9% | 24% | |
| 41 | 8% | 15% | |
| 42 | 5% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 8% | 93% | |
| 33 | 19% | 85% | |
| 34 | 17% | 66% | |
| 35 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 36 | 10% | 34% | |
| 37 | 14% | 24% | |
| 38 | 7% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 6–12 May 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.98%