Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 2–6 September 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 25.2% 23.2–27.3% 22.7–27.8% 22.2–28.4% 21.3–29.4%
CD&V 20.5% 15.6% 14.0–17.4% 13.6–17.9% 13.2–18.4% 12.5–19.2%
sp.a 14.0% 14.9% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.6–17.6% 11.9–18.5%
Open Vld 14.1% 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.7–16.7% 11.1–17.5%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 13.1% 11.6–14.8% 11.2–15.3% 10.9–15.7% 10.2–16.5%
Groen 8.7% 10.0% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–11.9% 8.0–12.3% 7.5–13.1%
PVDA 2.5% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.9% 3.4–7.5%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.6–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 33 30–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
CD&V 27 20 16–21 15–22 15–23 15–25
sp.a 18 19 17–22 16–23 15–23 14–25
Open Vld 19 19 16–21 15–22 14–23 13–24
Vlaams Belang 6 17 14–19 13–19 13–20 11–22
Groen 10 13 10–15 10–15 10–16 8–17
PVDA 0 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 1–8
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.1%  
30 10% 97%  
31 9% 87%  
32 11% 78%  
33 23% 67% Median
34 16% 44%  
35 11% 28%  
36 6% 17%  
37 6% 11%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 5% 99.8%  
16 5% 95%  
17 6% 89%  
18 6% 83%  
19 13% 77%  
20 48% 65% Median
21 9% 16%  
22 4% 8%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.8%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 2% 98%  
16 3% 97%  
17 7% 94%  
18 7% 88% Last Result
19 53% 81% Median
20 9% 28%  
21 8% 19%  
22 3% 10%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 2% 98%  
15 2% 96%  
16 4% 94%  
17 13% 90%  
18 17% 77%  
19 31% 61% Last Result, Median
20 19% 29%  
21 4% 11%  
22 2% 6%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.2%  
13 6% 98%  
14 5% 92%  
15 8% 88%  
16 27% 79%  
17 24% 52% Median
18 18% 28%  
19 6% 10%  
20 2% 4%  
21 0.6% 1.2%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.7%  
9 0.6% 99.5%  
10 16% 98.9% Last Result
11 9% 82%  
12 9% 74%  
13 18% 65% Median
14 33% 47%  
15 10% 14%  
16 2% 4%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 1.1% 99.5%  
2 41% 98%  
3 19% 57% Median
4 5% 38%  
5 31% 33%  
6 0.4% 2%  
7 0.6% 1.5%  
8 0.7% 0.9%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 72 100% 69–75 68–76 67–77 66–79
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 71 99.9% 68–75 67–76 66–77 64–79
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 74 70 99.8% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–77
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld 64 58 3% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–64
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 55 0.3% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–62
N-VA – CD&V 70 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–59
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 52 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 44–58
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 51 0% 48–54 46–55 46–56 44–58
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 50 0% 46–53 46–54 45–55 43–56
CD&V – sp.a 45 39 0% 35–42 35–43 34–44 32–45
CD&V – Open Vld 46 38 0% 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–44
sp.a – Open Vld 37 38 0% 35–41 34–42 32–43 31–45

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Majority
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 4% 97%  
69 10% 94%  
70 12% 84%  
71 14% 72%  
72 18% 58% Median
73 13% 40%  
74 11% 27%  
75 7% 16%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9% Majority
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 0.8% 99.1%  
66 2% 98%  
67 5% 97%  
68 8% 92%  
69 10% 84%  
70 12% 73%  
71 12% 62%  
72 14% 50% Median
73 12% 36%  
74 11% 24%  
75 6% 13%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 1.5%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8% Majority
64 1.4% 99.3%  
65 3% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 6% 91%  
68 11% 85%  
69 14% 74%  
70 13% 60%  
71 15% 47% Median
72 14% 32%  
73 7% 17%  
74 5% 10% Last Result
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 99.0%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 8% 91%  
55 8% 83%  
56 11% 75%  
57 14% 65%  
58 19% 51% Median
59 14% 32%  
60 7% 19%  
61 5% 12%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 3% Majority
64 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 1.3% 99.0%  
50 5% 98%  
51 7% 93%  
52 8% 86%  
53 10% 78%  
54 13% 69%  
55 13% 55% Last Result, Median
56 13% 42%  
57 10% 29%  
58 11% 19%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Majority
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 0.8% 99.1%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 97%  
50 13% 92%  
51 10% 79%  
52 14% 69%  
53 19% 55% Median
54 12% 36%  
55 9% 23%  
56 7% 14%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 0.9% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 6% 94%  
49 11% 87%  
50 10% 76%  
51 13% 66%  
52 15% 53% Median
53 18% 38%  
54 8% 20%  
55 6% 12% Last Result
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 1.4% 99.0%  
46 3% 98%  
47 4% 95% Last Result
48 8% 90%  
49 11% 82%  
50 16% 71%  
51 16% 54% Median
52 15% 38%  
53 10% 23%  
54 6% 13%  
55 3% 8%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.7%  
44 1.1% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 6% 96%  
47 8% 90%  
48 12% 82%  
49 15% 70% Last Result
50 17% 55% Median
51 11% 38%  
52 10% 27%  
53 8% 17%  
54 6% 9%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.7% 99.4%  
34 3% 98.7%  
35 6% 95%  
36 8% 90%  
37 9% 82%  
38 13% 73%  
39 31% 60% Median
40 11% 29%  
41 7% 18%  
42 4% 11%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 1.0% 99.3%  
33 4% 98%  
34 5% 95%  
35 6% 90%  
36 8% 83%  
37 12% 76%  
38 14% 63%  
39 23% 49% Median
40 13% 26%  
41 6% 13%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.5%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 2% 97%  
34 5% 95%  
35 5% 90%  
36 10% 85%  
37 15% 75% Last Result
38 23% 60% Median
39 15% 38%  
40 9% 23%  
41 5% 14%  
42 4% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.5%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations