Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 19–25 September 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 25.9% | 24.2–27.8% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.3–28.8% | 22.5–29.7% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 17.6% | 16.1–19.3% | 15.7–19.7% | 15.3–20.1% | 14.7–20.9% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.4–15.2% | 12.0–15.7% | 11.7–16.0% | 11.1–16.8% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.5% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.4% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.5% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.5–14.9% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.5–12.1% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.9–12.8% | 8.4–13.5% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| CD&V | 27 | 22 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| sp.a | 18 | 19 | 16–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–23 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 10–17 | 10–18 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 14% | 91% | |
| 34 | 18% | 78% | |
| 35 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 46% | |
| 37 | 20% | 32% | |
| 38 | 9% | 13% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 17% | 98.5% | |
| 21 | 20% | 82% | |
| 22 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 23 | 11% | 46% | |
| 24 | 14% | 35% | |
| 25 | 11% | 21% | |
| 26 | 4% | 10% | |
| 27 | 6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 95% | |
| 16 | 8% | 91% | |
| 17 | 13% | 83% | |
| 18 | 18% | 70% | Last Result |
| 19 | 43% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 5% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 16% | 98% | |
| 14 | 10% | 82% | |
| 15 | 8% | 72% | |
| 16 | 7% | 64% | |
| 17 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 13% | 40% | |
| 19 | 25% | 27% | Last Result |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 19% | 89% | |
| 14 | 15% | 70% | |
| 15 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 16 | 26% | 40% | |
| 17 | 5% | 14% | |
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 12 | 3% | 96% | |
| 13 | 9% | 93% | |
| 14 | 54% | 83% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 30% | |
| 16 | 5% | 13% | |
| 17 | 7% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 13% | 87% | |
| 2 | 68% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 76 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 69–82 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 74 | 100% | 71–78 | 70–78 | 69–79 | 68–81 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 71 | 100% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 66–76 | 65–78 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 58 | 3% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 57 | 2% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–62 | 50–64 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 57 | 0.9% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 50–63 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 48–61 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 50 | 0% | 46–54 | 45–54 | 45–55 | 43–56 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 49 | 0% | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 | 42–55 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 39 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–44 | 34–45 | 33–46 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 34 | 0% | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 5% | 95% | |
| 73 | 5% | 91% | |
| 74 | 6% | 86% | |
| 75 | 22% | 80% | |
| 76 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 77 | 15% | 38% | |
| 78 | 12% | 23% | |
| 79 | 8% | 12% | |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 3% | 97% | |
| 71 | 7% | 94% | |
| 72 | 13% | 87% | |
| 73 | 13% | 74% | |
| 74 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 75 | 16% | 46% | |
| 76 | 13% | 31% | |
| 77 | 7% | 17% | |
| 78 | 5% | 10% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 6% | 97% | |
| 68 | 8% | 92% | |
| 69 | 10% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 74% | |
| 71 | 17% | 64% | |
| 72 | 16% | 47% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 31% | |
| 74 | 7% | 19% | Last Result |
| 75 | 5% | 11% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 54 | 5% | 96% | |
| 55 | 6% | 91% | |
| 56 | 16% | 85% | |
| 57 | 16% | 69% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 53% | |
| 59 | 13% | 38% | |
| 60 | 10% | 24% | |
| 61 | 8% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 53 | 5% | 96% | |
| 54 | 8% | 91% | |
| 55 | 10% | 82% | |
| 56 | 11% | 72% | |
| 57 | 18% | 62% | |
| 58 | 16% | 44% | Median |
| 59 | 11% | 28% | |
| 60 | 7% | 18% | |
| 61 | 5% | 10% | |
| 62 | 3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 2% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 97% | |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 8% | 89% | |
| 55 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 56 | 14% | 65% | |
| 57 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 37% | |
| 59 | 9% | 23% | |
| 60 | 8% | 13% | |
| 61 | 3% | 5% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 7% | 92% | |
| 53 | 16% | 84% | |
| 54 | 14% | 68% | |
| 55 | 14% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 15% | 41% | |
| 57 | 11% | 26% | |
| 58 | 9% | 15% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 6% | 89% | |
| 48 | 10% | 84% | |
| 49 | 16% | 73% | Last Result |
| 50 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 41% | |
| 52 | 10% | 29% | |
| 53 | 8% | 18% | |
| 54 | 7% | 11% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 97% | |
| 45 | 6% | 95% | |
| 46 | 12% | 88% | |
| 47 | 13% | 76% | Last Result |
| 48 | 12% | 64% | |
| 49 | 11% | 52% | |
| 50 | 11% | 41% | Median |
| 51 | 11% | 29% | |
| 52 | 11% | 18% | |
| 53 | 4% | 7% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 9% | 91% | |
| 39 | 16% | 82% | |
| 40 | 14% | 66% | |
| 41 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 42 | 11% | 35% | |
| 43 | 12% | 25% | |
| 44 | 8% | 13% | |
| 45 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 95% | |
| 36 | 6% | 89% | |
| 37 | 12% | 83% | |
| 38 | 12% | 72% | |
| 39 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 17% | 44% | |
| 41 | 9% | 26% | |
| 42 | 7% | 17% | |
| 43 | 5% | 10% | |
| 44 | 2% | 5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 97% | |
| 31 | 6% | 94% | |
| 32 | 15% | 88% | |
| 33 | 13% | 74% | |
| 34 | 12% | 61% | |
| 35 | 11% | 49% | |
| 36 | 11% | 38% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 27% | Last Result |
| 38 | 14% | 17% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 September 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 983
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.02%