Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 14 September–3 October 2016
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 27.8% | 26.1–29.7% | 25.6–30.2% | 25.2–30.7% | 24.3–31.6% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 16.8% | 15.3–18.4% | 15.0–18.8% | 14.6–19.2% | 13.9–20.0% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–18.9% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 13.6% | 12.3–15.1% | 11.9–15.5% | 11.6–15.9% | 11.1–16.6% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 13.3% | 12.0–14.8% | 11.7–15.2% | 11.4–15.6% | 10.8–16.3% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.5% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.1–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 16–27 |
| sp.a | 18 | 20 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 16–25 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 13–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 17 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 14–23 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 10% | 93% | |
| 36 | 15% | 83% | |
| 37 | 25% | 68% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 43% | |
| 39 | 15% | 29% | |
| 40 | 7% | 13% | |
| 41 | 4% | 6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 10% | 97% | |
| 20 | 30% | 87% | |
| 21 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 30% | |
| 23 | 6% | 14% | |
| 24 | 3% | 8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 19 | 44% | 95% | |
| 20 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 42% | |
| 22 | 10% | 32% | |
| 23 | 13% | 22% | |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 4% | 96% | |
| 16 | 4% | 92% | |
| 17 | 13% | 88% | |
| 18 | 18% | 75% | |
| 19 | 44% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 9% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 90% | |
| 17 | 45% | 80% | Median |
| 18 | 12% | 35% | |
| 19 | 7% | 23% | |
| 20 | 7% | 15% | |
| 21 | 4% | 9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 7 | 2% | 95% | |
| 8 | 72% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 21% | |
| 10 | 4% | 16% | |
| 11 | 9% | 12% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 79 | 100% | 76–81 | 75–82 | 74–83 | 73–85 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 77 | 100% | 75–80 | 74–81 | 73–81 | 71–83 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 76 | 100% | 73–80 | 72–80 | 71–81 | 70–82 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 60 | 13% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 59 | 7% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 55–64 | 53–66 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 60 | 13% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–64 | 53–65 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 58 | 3% | 55–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 56 | 0.4% | 53–59 | 53–60 | 52–61 | 50–62 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 46 | 0% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 40–51 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 41 | 0% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 38–46 | 36–48 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 39 | 0% | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 | 33–45 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 38 | 0% | 36–42 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 32–44 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 8% | 93% | |
| 77 | 12% | 84% | |
| 78 | 17% | 73% | Median |
| 79 | 15% | 56% | |
| 80 | 18% | 41% | |
| 81 | 13% | 23% | |
| 82 | 5% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 75 | 10% | 90% | |
| 76 | 14% | 80% | |
| 77 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 78 | 15% | 44% | |
| 79 | 12% | 28% | |
| 80 | 9% | 16% | |
| 81 | 5% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 72 | 3% | 97% | |
| 73 | 6% | 95% | |
| 74 | 10% | 89% | |
| 75 | 12% | 79% | |
| 76 | 18% | 67% | |
| 77 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 78 | 12% | 37% | |
| 79 | 12% | 25% | |
| 80 | 9% | 13% | |
| 81 | 3% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 56 | 4% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 93% | |
| 58 | 17% | 87% | |
| 59 | 13% | 70% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 57% | |
| 61 | 18% | 43% | |
| 62 | 12% | 25% | |
| 63 | 6% | 13% | Majority |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 56 | 9% | 94% | |
| 57 | 11% | 85% | |
| 58 | 17% | 74% | Median |
| 59 | 16% | 58% | |
| 60 | 15% | 42% | |
| 61 | 13% | 27% | |
| 62 | 7% | 14% | |
| 63 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 4% | 95% | |
| 57 | 8% | 91% | |
| 58 | 12% | 83% | |
| 59 | 16% | 71% | |
| 60 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 35% | |
| 62 | 10% | 23% | |
| 63 | 8% | 13% | Majority |
| 64 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 65 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 6% | 96% | |
| 56 | 10% | 90% | |
| 57 | 19% | 80% | |
| 58 | 16% | 61% | Median |
| 59 | 15% | 45% | |
| 60 | 11% | 30% | |
| 61 | 12% | 20% | |
| 62 | 4% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 9% | 90% | |
| 55 | 20% | 80% | |
| 56 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 57 | 16% | 46% | |
| 58 | 14% | 31% | |
| 59 | 8% | 17% | |
| 60 | 5% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 5% | 98% | |
| 43 | 9% | 93% | |
| 44 | 13% | 85% | |
| 45 | 20% | 72% | Median |
| 46 | 14% | 52% | |
| 47 | 18% | 38% | |
| 48 | 10% | 20% | |
| 49 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 5% | 98% | |
| 39 | 14% | 93% | |
| 40 | 13% | 79% | |
| 41 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 47% | |
| 43 | 13% | 32% | |
| 44 | 11% | 20% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 46 | 2% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 6% | 95% | |
| 37 | 10% | 89% | |
| 38 | 12% | 78% | |
| 39 | 18% | 66% | |
| 40 | 22% | 48% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 26% | |
| 42 | 4% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 6% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 3% | 96% | |
| 36 | 5% | 93% | |
| 37 | 11% | 87% | Last Result |
| 38 | 31% | 76% | |
| 39 | 10% | 45% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 35% | |
| 41 | 11% | 24% | |
| 42 | 9% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT
- Fieldwork period: 14 September–3 October 2016
Calculations
- Sample size: 1013
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%