Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 24–28 November 2016

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 27.6% 25.6–29.8% 25.0–30.4% 24.5–30.9% 23.6–32.0%
CD&V 20.5% 16.5% 14.9–18.4% 14.4–18.9% 14.0–19.4% 13.3–20.3%
sp.a 14.0% 12.8% 11.4–14.5% 10.9–15.0% 10.6–15.4% 9.9–16.2%
Open Vld 14.1% 12.3% 10.9–13.9% 10.4–14.4% 10.1–14.8% 9.5–15.7%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 12.3% 10.9–13.9% 10.4–14.4% 10.1–14.8% 9.5–15.7%
Groen 8.7% 12.1% 10.7–13.8% 10.3–14.3% 10.0–14.7% 9.3–15.5%
PVDA 2.5% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.9% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 37 34–40 34–41 33–42 31–44
CD&V 27 20 19–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
sp.a 18 17 14–19 14–19 14–19 13–21
Open Vld 19 16 13–19 13–19 12–20 12–21
Vlaams Belang 6 16 13–18 12–18 12–19 11–20
Groen 10 16 14–18 14–19 14–20 12–22
PVDA 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 1.0% 99.3%  
33 2% 98%  
34 10% 96%  
35 10% 86%  
36 11% 76%  
37 19% 65% Median
38 17% 46%  
39 14% 29%  
40 6% 15%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.2% 2% Last Result
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 2% 98%  
18 3% 96%  
19 6% 93%  
20 39% 87% Median
21 21% 48%  
22 9% 27%  
23 6% 18%  
24 7% 12%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.7% 99.8%  
14 18% 99.0%  
15 17% 81%  
16 10% 64%  
17 16% 54% Median
18 19% 39% Last Result
19 18% 19%  
20 1.0% 2%  
21 0.4% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 18% 95%  
14 13% 78%  
15 9% 65%  
16 7% 56% Median
17 20% 49%  
18 16% 29%  
19 10% 13% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 1.4% 99.8%  
12 7% 98%  
13 7% 92%  
14 7% 85%  
15 11% 78%  
16 36% 66% Median
17 16% 31%  
18 11% 15%  
19 2% 4%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 0.3% 99.7%  
13 1.1% 99.4%  
14 22% 98%  
15 19% 77%  
16 14% 58% Median
17 30% 43%  
18 7% 14%  
19 3% 7%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 2%  
22 0.6% 1.0%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 12% 51% Median
2 36% 38%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.5%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 75 100% 71–78 70–79 70–80 68–82
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 74 100% 71–78 70–79 69–80 67–82
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 74 69 99.4% 66–73 65–74 64–75 62–77
N-VA – CD&V 70 58 5% 55–62 54–62 53–63 52–66
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0.3% 51–58 50–59 49–60 48–62
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 53 0.1% 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–61
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld 64 53 0.1% 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–61
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 53 0% 50–56 49–58 48–58 46–60
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 48 0% 45–52 44–53 43–54 41–56
CD&V – sp.a 45 38 0% 34–41 34–42 33–43 31–45
CD&V – Open Vld 46 37 0% 33–40 33–41 32–42 30–44
sp.a – Open Vld 37 32 0% 29–36 28–37 27–38 26–39

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 1.2% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 5% 95%  
72 9% 90%  
73 14% 81%  
74 14% 67% Median
75 15% 52%  
76 12% 37%  
77 11% 25%  
78 6% 14%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.4% 2%  
82 0.6% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 95%  
71 8% 92%  
72 14% 84%  
73 15% 69% Median
74 13% 54%  
75 12% 41%  
76 10% 29%  
77 8% 19%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.9% 1.5%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 1.3% 99.4% Majority
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 7% 92%  
67 11% 85%  
68 15% 74%  
69 11% 59% Median
70 13% 48%  
71 12% 35%  
72 10% 23%  
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 8% Last Result
75 2% 4%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.6%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 5% 97%  
55 9% 92%  
56 9% 82%  
57 13% 74% Median
58 18% 60%  
59 13% 42%  
60 12% 29%  
61 7% 18%  
62 6% 10%  
63 2% 5% Majority
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.5%  
50 4% 97%  
51 6% 93%  
52 10% 87%  
53 14% 77%  
54 15% 63% Median
55 17% 48% Last Result
56 11% 31%  
57 6% 20%  
58 5% 13%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Majority
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 3% 97%  
50 6% 93%  
51 9% 88%  
52 13% 78%  
53 18% 65% Median
54 14% 47%  
55 11% 33% Last Result
56 9% 22%  
57 5% 13%  
58 4% 8%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.6%  
48 3% 98.7%  
49 5% 95%  
50 8% 91%  
51 8% 83%  
52 12% 75%  
53 15% 63% Median
54 15% 48%  
55 11% 33%  
56 7% 22%  
57 7% 14%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 1.4% 99.0%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95% Last Result
50 11% 91%  
51 11% 80%  
52 11% 69%  
53 14% 58% Median
54 15% 44%  
55 13% 29%  
56 7% 16%  
57 3% 9%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 4% 96%  
45 7% 92%  
46 10% 85%  
47 15% 76% Last Result
48 12% 61%  
49 13% 49% Median
50 11% 36%  
51 9% 25%  
52 7% 16%  
53 4% 9%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.7%  
32 0.7% 99.2%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 7% 97%  
35 10% 89%  
36 15% 79%  
37 14% 64% Median
38 18% 50%  
39 13% 32%  
40 8% 18%  
41 5% 10%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 0.8% 99.3%  
32 3% 98.5%  
33 7% 96%  
34 11% 89%  
35 12% 78%  
36 12% 66% Median
37 14% 54%  
38 13% 40%  
39 12% 27%  
40 7% 15%  
41 3% 7%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.7% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 6% 97%  
29 6% 91%  
30 8% 85%  
31 11% 77%  
32 19% 66%  
33 14% 47% Median
34 10% 33%  
35 9% 23%  
36 6% 14%  
37 4% 9% Last Result
38 4% 4%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations