Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 10–17 January 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.8–31.2%
CD&V 20.5% 14.9% 13.5–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.1%
sp.a 14.0% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.2%
Open Vld 14.1% 12.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.8% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.9%
Groen 8.7% 12.2% 11.0–13.7% 10.6–14.1% 10.3–14.5% 9.7–15.2%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.5–12.4% 8.0–13.0%
PVDA 2.5% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 38 34–40 33–41 33–41 32–43
CD&V 27 20 16–20 15–21 15–22 15–24
sp.a 18 17 14–19 14–19 14–20 14–22
Open Vld 19 18 14–19 13–20 13–20 12–22
Groen 10 17 14–18 14–19 14–19 14–22
Vlaams Belang 6 12 10–15 9–16 8–16 8–17
PVDA 0 5 2–5 2–5 2–6 2–9

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 5% 99.1%  
34 7% 94%  
35 10% 86%  
36 8% 76%  
37 16% 68%  
38 33% 52% Median
39 9% 19%  
40 5% 10%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 7% 99.9%  
16 11% 93%  
17 6% 82%  
18 7% 76%  
19 11% 68%  
20 50% 57% Median
21 4% 7%  
22 1.3% 3%  
23 0.6% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 15% 99.8%  
15 8% 85%  
16 8% 77%  
17 26% 69% Median
18 13% 43% Last Result
19 26% 30%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.8% 2%  
22 0.5% 0.8%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 8% 99.3%  
14 4% 91%  
15 5% 87%  
16 6% 82%  
17 12% 76%  
18 18% 63% Median
19 40% 45% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 1.3%  
22 0.4% 0.7%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 14% 99.5%  
15 25% 85%  
16 8% 60%  
17 30% 52% Median
18 12% 22%  
19 7% 10%  
20 1.1% 2%  
21 0.6% 1.4%  
22 0.4% 0.8%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 3% 97%  
10 7% 94%  
11 28% 88%  
12 25% 60% Median
13 17% 35%  
14 7% 18%  
15 4% 11%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.4% 1.4%  
18 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 20% 99.8%  
3 23% 79%  
4 4% 56%  
5 48% 52% Median
6 1.1% 3%  
7 0.8% 2%  
8 0.6% 1.3%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 74 100% 70–77 69–78 68–78 66–80
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 73 100% 70–76 69–77 68–78 67–80
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 74 70 99.6% 66–73 65–74 65–75 63–76
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 56 1.2% 53–60 52–61 51–61 50–63
N-VA – CD&V 70 56 0.6% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–63
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld 64 54 0% 50–57 49–58 48–58 46–59
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen 56 53 0% 49–56 48–57 48–57 46–59
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 52 0% 49–56 48–56 48–57 46–59
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen 47 51 0% 47–54 46–55 45–56 44–57
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 49 0% 46–53 45–54 45–54 43–56
CD&V – Open Vld 46 37 0% 33–39 32–40 31–40 29–42
CD&V – sp.a 45 36 0% 33–39 32–39 31–40 30–42
sp.a – Open Vld 37 35 0% 31–38 30–38 30–38 28–40

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.5%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 7% 93%  
71 9% 86%  
72 11% 77%  
73 15% 66%  
74 12% 50%  
75 13% 38%  
76 9% 25% Median
77 9% 15%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 3% 99.0%  
69 5% 96%  
70 7% 92%  
71 9% 85%  
72 16% 76%  
73 18% 60%  
74 12% 41%  
75 13% 30% Median
76 9% 16%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.6% Majority
64 1.2% 98.9%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 95%  
67 9% 89%  
68 11% 80%  
69 14% 69%  
70 12% 56%  
71 16% 44%  
72 15% 28% Median
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 7% Last Result
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 4% 97%  
53 8% 93%  
54 14% 85%  
55 12% 71% Last Result
56 12% 59%  
57 13% 47%  
58 13% 34%  
59 10% 21% Median
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.2% Majority
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.3%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 10% 94%  
54 13% 84%  
55 12% 71%  
56 12% 58%  
57 17% 46%  
58 15% 29% Median
59 7% 13%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.6% Majority
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.4%  
48 3% 98.5%  
49 4% 96%  
50 6% 92%  
51 9% 85%  
52 10% 77%  
53 15% 66%  
54 16% 51%  
55 11% 35% Median
56 8% 24%  
57 8% 16%  
58 6% 7%  
59 1.0% 1.5%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 1.4% 98.9%  
48 4% 98%  
49 5% 94%  
50 8% 88%  
51 9% 80%  
52 14% 71%  
53 15% 57%  
54 18% 42%  
55 10% 24% Median
56 9% 14% Last Result
57 4% 5%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 1.4% 99.0%  
48 5% 98%  
49 9% 93%  
50 8% 84%  
51 11% 75%  
52 16% 64%  
53 17% 49%  
54 12% 31% Median
55 9% 19% Last Result
56 5% 10%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

sp.a – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.6%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 3% 97%  
47 6% 94% Last Result
48 8% 89%  
49 9% 81%  
50 13% 72%  
51 14% 60%  
52 18% 45% Median
53 11% 27%  
54 6% 16%  
55 6% 9%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.2%  
45 5% 98%  
46 9% 93%  
47 9% 83%  
48 11% 74%  
49 17% 63% Last Result
50 17% 46% Median
51 11% 29%  
52 8% 19%  
53 5% 10%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 1.1% 99.3%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 97%  
33 8% 93%  
34 10% 85%  
35 12% 75%  
36 9% 63%  
37 13% 53%  
38 13% 40% Median
39 21% 27%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.5% 99.8%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 4% 92%  
34 16% 87%  
35 15% 72%  
36 14% 57%  
37 14% 43% Median
38 14% 29%  
39 11% 15%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

sp.a – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.6%  
29 1.3% 98.9%  
30 4% 98%  
31 6% 94%  
32 9% 88%  
33 14% 79%  
34 13% 65%  
35 14% 53% Median
36 12% 39%  
37 10% 27% Last Result
38 15% 17%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations