Opinion Poll by Dedicated for RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 16–20 March 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 27.4% 25.4–29.5% 24.8–30.1% 24.4–30.6% 23.4–31.6%
CD&V 20.5% 15.3% 13.8–17.1% 13.4–17.6% 13.0–18.0% 12.3–18.9%
Open Vld 14.1% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.2% 10.9–15.6% 10.2–16.4%
sp.a 14.0% 13.0% 11.6–14.7% 11.2–15.2% 10.9–15.6% 10.2–16.4%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 11.9% 10.5–13.5% 10.1–14.0% 9.8–14.4% 9.2–15.2%
Groen 8.7% 11.6% 10.3–13.2% 9.9–13.7% 9.6–14.1% 9.0–14.9%
PVDA 2.5% 5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.2–6.9% 4.0–7.2% 3.6–7.8%
Piratenpartij 0.6% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 37 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–43
CD&V 27 20 16–21 15–21 15–23 15–25
Open Vld 19 18 14–19 13–20 13–20 12–23
sp.a 18 17 14–19 14–19 14–19 13–21
Vlaams Belang 6 15 12–17 11–17 11–18 10–19
Groen 10 15 14–17 13–18 12–18 11–20
PVDA 0 3 2–5 2–5 2–6 1–9
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.5%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 7% 97%  
34 9% 90%  
35 11% 81%  
36 10% 70%  
37 12% 61% Median
38 34% 49%  
39 8% 15%  
40 3% 7%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 8% 99.9%  
16 8% 92%  
17 6% 83%  
18 6% 77%  
19 14% 71%  
20 47% 57% Median
21 6% 10%  
22 1.4% 5%  
23 1.2% 3%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.4% 100%  
13 9% 98.6%  
14 5% 90%  
15 5% 86%  
16 11% 81%  
17 15% 69%  
18 19% 55% Median
19 27% 36% Last Result
20 6% 9%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.7% 1.2%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 26% 99.1%  
15 7% 73%  
16 6% 67%  
17 27% 60% Median
18 12% 33% Last Result
19 19% 21%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.5% 99.7%  
11 6% 99.2%  
12 8% 93%  
13 18% 85%  
14 14% 67%  
15 9% 53% Median
16 23% 44%  
17 17% 21%  
18 2% 4%  
19 0.9% 1.3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100% Last Result
11 0.7% 99.5%  
12 2% 98.9%  
13 3% 97%  
14 34% 94%  
15 27% 60% Median
16 6% 32%  
17 17% 27%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 99.9%  
2 31% 99.5%  
3 20% 68% Median
4 3% 48%  
5 42% 45%  
6 1.2% 3%  
7 0.7% 2%  
8 0.9% 2%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 73 100% 69–77 68–77 67–78 66–80
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 72 100% 69–75 68–76 67–77 66–80
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 74 68 98% 64–72 63–73 63–74 61–76
N-VA – CD&V 70 56 0.6% 52–59 51–60 50–61 49–63
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0.2% 52–59 51–59 50–60 47–62
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 53 0% 49–57 48–58 47–58 46–60
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 51 0% 48–55 47–55 46–57 44–58
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen 56 52 0% 48–55 47–56 45–57 44–59
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 51 0% 48–54 47–56 46–56 44–58
Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 47 49 0% 45–53 44–54 43–55 42–56
CD&V – Open Vld 46 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–43
CD&V – sp.a 45 36 0% 32–39 31–39 31–40 30–43
Open Vld – sp.a 37 34 0% 30–38 30–38 28–39 27–40

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Majority
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 5% 97%  
69 6% 92%  
70 8% 86%  
71 7% 78%  
72 9% 70%  
73 15% 62%  
74 16% 46%  
75 8% 30% Median
76 7% 22%  
77 10% 15%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 1.3% 99.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 9% 93%  
70 9% 84%  
71 9% 76%  
72 17% 66%  
73 16% 49%  
74 11% 32% Median
75 12% 21%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.1%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 3% 98% Majority
64 9% 95%  
65 6% 86%  
66 12% 80%  
67 11% 68%  
68 12% 57%  
69 11% 45%  
70 13% 34% Median
71 9% 21%  
72 5% 12%  
73 4% 7%  
74 2% 3% Last Result
75 0.8% 1.3%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 4% 97%  
52 4% 93%  
53 9% 89%  
54 11% 80%  
55 12% 69%  
56 12% 56%  
57 17% 44% Median
58 15% 27%  
59 5% 12%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.7% 1.3%  
63 0.4% 0.6% Majority
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.3%  
49 0.5% 98.8%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 5% 97%  
52 11% 92%  
53 25% 82%  
54 19% 57%  
55 11% 38% Last Result, Median
56 4% 27%  
57 5% 23%  
58 7% 18%  
59 6% 11%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Majority
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.5%  
47 2% 99.0%  
48 4% 97%  
49 6% 93%  
50 10% 87%  
51 7% 77%  
52 13% 69%  
53 16% 56%  
54 10% 40%  
55 10% 30% Median
56 10% 20%  
57 5% 10%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.5%  
46 3% 98%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 8% 87% Last Result
50 10% 78%  
51 19% 68%  
52 15% 49% Median
53 9% 33%  
54 14% 24%  
55 5% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 8% 92%  
49 10% 84%  
50 11% 74%  
51 11% 64%  
52 14% 53%  
53 14% 38% Median
54 11% 24%  
55 4% 13%  
56 5% 9% Last Result
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.6%  
45 0.8% 99.2%  
46 2% 98%  
47 5% 97%  
48 13% 92%  
49 11% 79%  
50 16% 68%  
51 15% 52%  
52 12% 37% Median
53 7% 24%  
54 7% 17%  
55 4% 10% Last Result
56 4% 5%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.9% 1.1%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.7%  
43 1.3% 98.6%  
44 5% 97%  
45 4% 93%  
46 9% 89%  
47 12% 79% Last Result
48 10% 68%  
49 11% 58%  
50 12% 46% Median
51 11% 34%  
52 12% 23%  
53 5% 11%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.2% 3%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 3% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 8% 91%  
34 10% 83%  
35 11% 73%  
36 13% 62%  
37 10% 49%  
38 15% 39% Median
39 15% 23%  
40 5% 9%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 2%  
43 0.7% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 4% 98%  
32 5% 94%  
33 6% 89%  
34 22% 84%  
35 9% 61%  
36 13% 52%  
37 19% 39% Median
38 8% 20%  
39 7% 12%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 0.4% 1.1%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 98%  
29 2% 97%  
30 8% 95%  
31 6% 88%  
32 13% 81%  
33 16% 69%  
34 12% 53%  
35 10% 41% Median
36 12% 31%  
37 9% 19% Last Result
38 7% 10%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations