Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT, 27 March–11 April 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 26.3% | 24.6–28.1% | 24.1–28.6% | 23.7–29.1% | 22.9–30.0% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 18.6% | 17.1–20.3% | 16.7–20.7% | 16.4–21.1% | 15.7–21.9% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 14.7% | 13.3–16.2% | 12.9–16.6% | 12.6–17.0% | 12.0–17.7% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 14.4% | 13.0–15.9% | 12.7–16.3% | 12.4–16.7% | 11.8–17.4% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.9–14.6% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.4% | 10.7–16.1% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 35 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| CD&V | 27 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 20–29 |
| Groen | 10 | 19 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 15–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 13–24 |
| sp.a | 18 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 4–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 5% | 94% | |
| 33 | 11% | 90% | |
| 34 | 23% | 78% | |
| 35 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 41% | |
| 37 | 18% | 27% | |
| 38 | 6% | 9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 11% | 91% | |
| 22 | 11% | 80% | |
| 23 | 13% | 68% | |
| 24 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 25 | 13% | 32% | |
| 26 | 14% | 19% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 19% | 98% | |
| 18 | 20% | 79% | |
| 19 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 49% | |
| 21 | 11% | 37% | |
| 22 | 13% | 26% | |
| 23 | 12% | 14% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 16 | 3% | 97% | |
| 17 | 7% | 94% | |
| 18 | 15% | 87% | |
| 19 | 25% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 39% | 47% | |
| 21 | 4% | 8% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 16% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 14% | 84% | |
| 16 | 14% | 70% | |
| 17 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 8% | 39% | Last Result |
| 19 | 30% | 31% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 11% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 7 | 4% | 88% | |
| 8 | 72% | 84% | Median |
| 9 | 4% | 13% | |
| 10 | 4% | 8% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 93% | |
| 2 | 71% | 84% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a | 74 | 79 | 100% | 76–82 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 73–85 |
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 78 | 100% | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–82 | 71–84 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 75 | 100% | 72–79 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 69–82 |
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld | 56 | 62 | 45% | 59–66 | 58–66 | 58–67 | 56–68 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 62 | 40% | 59–65 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 60 | 15% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–67 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 59 | 12% | 56–63 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 59 | 6% | 55–62 | 54–63 | 54–63 | 53–65 |
| Groen – Open Vld – sp.a | 47 | 56 | 0.1% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 43 | 0% | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–47 | 37–49 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 43 | 0% | 39–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 36–48 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 40 | 0% | 37–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–39 | 30–42 |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 9% | 95% | |
| 77 | 13% | 87% | |
| 78 | 12% | 73% | |
| 79 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 80 | 23% | 47% | |
| 81 | 11% | 24% | |
| 82 | 6% | 13% | |
| 83 | 3% | 7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 3% | 96% | |
| 74 | 6% | 93% | |
| 75 | 9% | 87% | |
| 76 | 10% | 78% | |
| 77 | 16% | 69% | |
| 78 | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 79 | 10% | 36% | |
| 80 | 12% | 26% | |
| 81 | 9% | 14% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 10% | 96% | |
| 73 | 11% | 86% | |
| 74 | 14% | 76% | |
| 75 | 15% | 62% | |
| 76 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 32% | |
| 78 | 8% | 19% | |
| 79 | 6% | 11% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 57 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 6% | 95% | |
| 60 | 13% | 88% | |
| 61 | 17% | 76% | |
| 62 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 45% | Majority |
| 64 | 12% | 32% | |
| 65 | 8% | 20% | |
| 66 | 8% | 12% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 6% | 97% | |
| 59 | 10% | 91% | |
| 60 | 9% | 81% | |
| 61 | 11% | 72% | |
| 62 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 63 | 16% | 40% | Majority |
| 64 | 9% | 24% | |
| 65 | 5% | 15% | |
| 66 | 4% | 9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 10% | 91% | |
| 58 | 9% | 82% | |
| 59 | 11% | 73% | |
| 60 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 41% | |
| 62 | 9% | 24% | |
| 63 | 6% | 15% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 6% | 94% | |
| 57 | 7% | 88% | |
| 58 | 15% | 80% | |
| 59 | 17% | 65% | |
| 60 | 14% | 48% | Median |
| 61 | 11% | 34% | |
| 62 | 11% | 23% | |
| 63 | 8% | 12% | Majority |
| 64 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 65 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 55 | 6% | 94% | |
| 56 | 9% | 88% | |
| 57 | 15% | 79% | |
| 58 | 14% | 65% | |
| 59 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 35% | |
| 61 | 11% | 22% | |
| 62 | 5% | 11% | |
| 63 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 89% | |
| 54 | 12% | 79% | |
| 55 | 17% | 67% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 51% | |
| 57 | 14% | 35% | |
| 58 | 8% | 21% | |
| 59 | 7% | 13% | |
| 60 | 5% | 6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 39 | 3% | 97% | |
| 40 | 6% | 94% | |
| 41 | 11% | 88% | |
| 42 | 23% | 77% | |
| 43 | 14% | 54% | Median |
| 44 | 13% | 40% | |
| 45 | 14% | 27% | |
| 46 | 8% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 7% | 95% | |
| 40 | 8% | 89% | |
| 41 | 10% | 80% | |
| 42 | 13% | 70% | |
| 43 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 44 | 23% | 42% | |
| 45 | 10% | 20% | |
| 46 | 7% | 9% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 5% | 95% | |
| 38 | 14% | 90% | |
| 39 | 17% | 76% | |
| 40 | 12% | 59% | |
| 41 | 13% | 47% | Median |
| 42 | 14% | 34% | |
| 43 | 10% | 21% | |
| 44 | 6% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 7% | 92% | |
| 34 | 10% | 84% | |
| 35 | 16% | 74% | |
| 36 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 37 | 17% | 45% | Last Result |
| 38 | 17% | 27% | |
| 39 | 8% | 10% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT
- Fieldwork period: 27 March–11 April 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1030
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%