Opinion Poll by Dedicated for MR, 23–27 June 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
31.9% |
27.0% |
24.8–29.4% |
24.2–30.1% |
23.7–30.7% |
22.7–31.8% |
CD&V |
20.5% |
17.0% |
15.2–19.0% |
14.6–19.6% |
14.2–20.1% |
13.4–21.1% |
Open Vld |
14.1% |
12.6% |
11.1–14.5% |
10.6–15.0% |
10.3–15.5% |
9.6–16.4% |
Groen |
8.7% |
12.5% |
10.9–14.3% |
10.5–14.8% |
10.1–15.3% |
9.4–16.2% |
Vlaams Belang |
5.9% |
11.7% |
10.2–13.5% |
9.8–14.0% |
9.4–14.4% |
8.7–15.3% |
sp.a |
14.0% |
9.4% |
8.1–11.1% |
7.7–11.6% |
7.4–12.0% |
6.8–12.8% |
PVDA |
2.5% |
7.4% |
6.2–8.9% |
5.8–9.3% |
5.6–9.7% |
5.0–10.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA |
43 |
36 |
33–38 |
32–39 |
31–40 |
30–43 |
CD&V |
27 |
20 |
20–25 |
18–25 |
16–26 |
16–28 |
Open Vld |
19 |
17 |
13–19 |
13–20 |
12–20 |
12–22 |
Groen |
10 |
16 |
14–19 |
14–20 |
14–21 |
12–23 |
Vlaams Belang |
6 |
14 |
12–17 |
11–17 |
10–18 |
9–20 |
sp.a |
18 |
12 |
9–14 |
8–14 |
8–14 |
7–16 |
PVDA |
0 |
7 |
5–9 |
5–9 |
5–10 |
3–12 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
98.7% |
|
32 |
4% |
97% |
|
33 |
6% |
94% |
|
34 |
19% |
88% |
|
35 |
14% |
69% |
|
36 |
9% |
55% |
Median |
37 |
10% |
45% |
|
38 |
26% |
36% |
|
39 |
6% |
10% |
|
40 |
2% |
4% |
|
41 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
2% |
97% |
|
18 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
19 |
3% |
94% |
|
20 |
44% |
91% |
Median |
21 |
9% |
47% |
|
22 |
9% |
37% |
|
23 |
8% |
29% |
|
24 |
8% |
20% |
|
25 |
7% |
12% |
|
26 |
3% |
5% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
13% |
95% |
|
14 |
7% |
83% |
|
15 |
9% |
75% |
|
16 |
11% |
66% |
|
17 |
18% |
55% |
Median |
18 |
15% |
38% |
|
19 |
17% |
23% |
Last Result |
20 |
3% |
5% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
15% |
98% |
|
15 |
28% |
83% |
|
16 |
8% |
55% |
Median |
17 |
18% |
47% |
|
18 |
17% |
29% |
|
19 |
7% |
12% |
|
20 |
2% |
6% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
11 |
5% |
97% |
|
12 |
20% |
92% |
|
13 |
13% |
72% |
|
14 |
12% |
59% |
Median |
15 |
8% |
47% |
|
16 |
15% |
39% |
|
17 |
21% |
23% |
|
18 |
2% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
9 |
10% |
91% |
|
10 |
23% |
82% |
|
11 |
9% |
59% |
|
12 |
7% |
51% |
Median |
13 |
22% |
44% |
|
14 |
20% |
21% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
5 |
32% |
99.1% |
|
6 |
5% |
67% |
|
7 |
20% |
62% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
43% |
|
9 |
31% |
35% |
|
10 |
2% |
4% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld |
89 |
74 |
100% |
70–78 |
69–79 |
67–80 |
65–82 |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a |
88 |
68 |
98% |
65–73 |
64–74 |
63–75 |
61–77 |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a |
74 |
65 |
87% |
62–70 |
60–72 |
59–72 |
57–74 |
N-VA – CD&V |
70 |
57 |
5% |
54–61 |
53–62 |
52–63 |
50–65 |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA |
55 |
56 |
4% |
52–61 |
51–62 |
50–63 |
48–65 |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen |
56 |
54 |
0.8% |
50–58 |
49–59 |
48–61 |
46–63 |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang |
49 |
50 |
0% |
46–54 |
45–55 |
45–56 |
43–57 |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a |
64 |
49 |
0% |
45–53 |
44–55 |
43–56 |
41–58 |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a |
55 |
49 |
0% |
45–53 |
44–54 |
43–55 |
41–57 |
Open Vld – Groen – sp.a |
47 |
44 |
0% |
40–48 |
39–49 |
38–51 |
37–52 |
CD&V – Open Vld |
46 |
38 |
0% |
34–42 |
33–43 |
32–44 |
30–46 |
CD&V – sp.a |
45 |
33 |
0% |
29–37 |
28–38 |
28–39 |
25–40 |
Open Vld – sp.a |
37 |
28 |
0% |
24–31 |
23–33 |
22–33 |
21–34 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
64 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
67 |
1.3% |
98.7% |
|
68 |
2% |
97% |
|
69 |
4% |
95% |
|
70 |
6% |
91% |
|
71 |
9% |
85% |
|
72 |
12% |
76% |
|
73 |
11% |
64% |
Median |
74 |
13% |
54% |
|
75 |
12% |
41% |
|
76 |
11% |
29% |
|
77 |
8% |
18% |
|
78 |
5% |
11% |
|
79 |
3% |
6% |
|
80 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
81 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
82 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
62 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
|
63 |
2% |
98% |
Majority |
64 |
4% |
96% |
|
65 |
7% |
92% |
|
66 |
6% |
84% |
|
67 |
10% |
78% |
|
68 |
19% |
68% |
Median |
69 |
11% |
49% |
|
70 |
8% |
38% |
|
71 |
9% |
30% |
|
72 |
8% |
21% |
|
73 |
6% |
13% |
|
74 |
2% |
7% |
|
75 |
2% |
4% |
|
76 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
77 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
59 |
3% |
98% |
|
60 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
61 |
2% |
94% |
|
62 |
5% |
92% |
|
63 |
9% |
87% |
Majority |
64 |
15% |
78% |
|
65 |
13% |
63% |
Median |
66 |
12% |
50% |
|
67 |
15% |
37% |
|
68 |
8% |
22% |
|
69 |
4% |
15% |
|
70 |
3% |
10% |
|
71 |
3% |
8% |
|
72 |
3% |
5% |
|
73 |
2% |
2% |
|
74 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
75 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
N-VA – CD&V
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
51 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
52 |
2% |
98% |
|
53 |
3% |
97% |
|
54 |
12% |
93% |
|
55 |
11% |
82% |
|
56 |
10% |
71% |
Median |
57 |
11% |
60% |
|
58 |
18% |
49% |
|
59 |
12% |
31% |
|
60 |
6% |
20% |
|
61 |
4% |
13% |
|
62 |
4% |
9% |
|
63 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
64 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
2% |
98% |
|
51 |
3% |
97% |
|
52 |
5% |
94% |
|
53 |
8% |
89% |
|
54 |
11% |
81% |
|
55 |
12% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
56 |
12% |
58% |
|
57 |
12% |
46% |
|
58 |
11% |
34% |
|
59 |
7% |
23% |
|
60 |
6% |
16% |
|
61 |
4% |
10% |
|
62 |
3% |
7% |
|
63 |
2% |
4% |
Majority |
64 |
0.9% |
1.5% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
47 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
48 |
2% |
98% |
|
49 |
3% |
96% |
|
50 |
4% |
93% |
|
51 |
7% |
89% |
|
52 |
10% |
81% |
|
53 |
13% |
71% |
Median |
54 |
18% |
58% |
|
55 |
11% |
41% |
|
56 |
9% |
30% |
Last Result |
57 |
8% |
21% |
|
58 |
4% |
13% |
|
59 |
4% |
9% |
|
60 |
2% |
5% |
|
61 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
62 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
Majority |
64 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
3% |
98% |
|
46 |
5% |
95% |
|
47 |
7% |
89% |
|
48 |
6% |
83% |
|
49 |
9% |
77% |
Last Result |
50 |
19% |
68% |
Median |
51 |
17% |
48% |
|
52 |
12% |
31% |
|
53 |
7% |
20% |
|
54 |
5% |
12% |
|
55 |
4% |
8% |
|
56 |
2% |
3% |
|
57 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
1.4% |
99.3% |
|
43 |
3% |
98% |
|
44 |
3% |
95% |
|
45 |
3% |
92% |
|
46 |
4% |
89% |
|
47 |
8% |
85% |
|
48 |
16% |
78% |
|
49 |
18% |
62% |
Median |
50 |
16% |
44% |
|
51 |
9% |
28% |
|
52 |
5% |
19% |
|
53 |
4% |
13% |
|
54 |
3% |
9% |
|
55 |
3% |
6% |
|
56 |
2% |
3% |
|
57 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
64 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.7% |
99.5% |
|
43 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
44 |
3% |
97% |
|
45 |
6% |
94% |
|
46 |
9% |
88% |
|
47 |
10% |
79% |
|
48 |
14% |
68% |
Median |
49 |
9% |
55% |
|
50 |
12% |
45% |
|
51 |
9% |
33% |
|
52 |
8% |
24% |
|
53 |
8% |
16% |
|
54 |
4% |
8% |
|
55 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
56 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
57 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
38 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
39 |
5% |
96% |
|
40 |
4% |
92% |
|
41 |
6% |
87% |
|
42 |
10% |
81% |
|
43 |
11% |
71% |
|
44 |
15% |
61% |
|
45 |
11% |
46% |
Median |
46 |
9% |
35% |
|
47 |
11% |
27% |
Last Result |
48 |
7% |
15% |
|
49 |
4% |
8% |
|
50 |
2% |
5% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
52 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – Open Vld
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
32 |
2% |
98% |
|
33 |
4% |
96% |
|
34 |
5% |
92% |
|
35 |
7% |
87% |
|
36 |
10% |
80% |
|
37 |
17% |
70% |
Median |
38 |
16% |
52% |
|
39 |
13% |
36% |
|
40 |
7% |
23% |
|
41 |
6% |
17% |
|
42 |
4% |
11% |
|
43 |
3% |
7% |
|
44 |
2% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
47 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
CD&V – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
98.7% |
|
28 |
3% |
98% |
|
29 |
7% |
95% |
|
30 |
14% |
88% |
|
31 |
9% |
74% |
|
32 |
8% |
64% |
Median |
33 |
14% |
57% |
|
34 |
17% |
42% |
|
35 |
9% |
25% |
|
36 |
5% |
17% |
|
37 |
5% |
12% |
|
38 |
4% |
7% |
|
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
4% |
97% |
|
24 |
5% |
93% |
|
25 |
7% |
88% |
|
26 |
10% |
81% |
|
27 |
14% |
71% |
|
28 |
16% |
57% |
|
29 |
12% |
42% |
Median |
30 |
12% |
29% |
|
31 |
7% |
17% |
|
32 |
5% |
10% |
|
33 |
4% |
5% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Dedicated
- Commissioner(s): MR
- Fieldwork period: 23–27 June 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 625
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%