Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 25 August–3 September 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 30.2% | 28.4–32.2% | 27.9–32.8% | 27.4–33.2% | 26.5–34.2% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 16.1% | 14.6–17.7% | 14.2–18.1% | 13.9–18.5% | 13.2–19.3% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 13.5% | 12.1–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.4–15.8% | 10.8–16.5% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 12.2% | 10.9–13.7% | 10.6–14.1% | 10.3–14.4% | 9.7–15.2% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.8–13.5% | 10.5–14.0% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 5.9–10.4% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 41 | 38–44 | 38–45 | 37–45 | 36–47 |
| CD&V | 27 | 20 | 19–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 15–26 |
| Groen | 10 | 18 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 15–23 | 14–23 |
| sp.a | 18 | 15 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 16 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 12–20 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| PVDA | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–7 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 38 | 13% | 96% | |
| 39 | 10% | 83% | |
| 40 | 11% | 73% | |
| 41 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 41% | |
| 43 | 11% | 27% | Last Result |
| 44 | 10% | 16% | |
| 45 | 5% | 6% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 2% | 97% | |
| 18 | 3% | 95% | |
| 19 | 6% | 91% | |
| 20 | 59% | 85% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 27% | |
| 22 | 6% | 18% | |
| 23 | 4% | 13% | |
| 24 | 4% | 8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 7% | 98% | |
| 16 | 5% | 91% | |
| 17 | 22% | 86% | |
| 18 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 19 | 26% | 48% | |
| 20 | 8% | 22% | |
| 21 | 4% | 14% | |
| 22 | 5% | 10% | |
| 23 | 5% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 38% | 97% | |
| 15 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 14% | 47% | |
| 17 | 20% | 33% | |
| 18 | 6% | 13% | Last Result |
| 19 | 7% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 21% | 97% | |
| 14 | 11% | 75% | |
| 15 | 8% | 65% | |
| 16 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 11% | 46% | |
| 18 | 15% | 35% | |
| 19 | 19% | 20% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 7 | 6% | 94% | |
| 8 | 61% | 88% | Median |
| 9 | 8% | 27% | |
| 10 | 12% | 19% | |
| 11 | 5% | 7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 36% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 28% | 63% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 35% | |
| 5 | 30% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 77 | 100% | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–83 | 70–84 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 77 | 100% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 72–82 | 71–84 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – Open Vld | 74 | 70 | 99.9% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 66–75 | 64–76 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 33% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 57–67 | 55–69 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 58 | 4% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 51–65 |
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld | 56 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 48–61 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 54 | 0.1% | 51–58 | 50–59 | 49–60 | 48–61 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 52 | 0% | 48–56 | 48–57 | 47–57 | 45–58 |
| Groen – sp.a – Open Vld | 47 | 50 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 43–57 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 49 | 0% | 46–53 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–40 | 32–41 | 30–43 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 36 | 0% | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 30–43 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 32 | 0% | 28–35 | 27–36 | 27–37 | 26–38 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98% | |
| 73 | 4% | 96% | |
| 74 | 8% | 92% | |
| 75 | 9% | 84% | |
| 76 | 11% | 76% | |
| 77 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 78 | 15% | 49% | |
| 79 | 12% | 35% | |
| 80 | 10% | 22% | |
| 81 | 6% | 12% | |
| 82 | 3% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 73 | 5% | 96% | |
| 74 | 7% | 91% | |
| 75 | 15% | 84% | |
| 76 | 14% | 69% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 55% | |
| 78 | 14% | 42% | |
| 79 | 8% | 28% | |
| 80 | 10% | 20% | |
| 81 | 5% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 10% | 95% | |
| 68 | 11% | 85% | |
| 69 | 12% | 74% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 62% | |
| 71 | 15% | 50% | |
| 72 | 18% | 35% | |
| 73 | 7% | 17% | |
| 74 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 8% | 95% | |
| 59 | 10% | 87% | |
| 60 | 11% | 77% | |
| 61 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 46% | |
| 63 | 12% | 33% | Majority |
| 64 | 10% | 21% | |
| 65 | 5% | 11% | |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 8% | 94% | |
| 55 | 10% | 87% | Last Result |
| 56 | 10% | 77% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 67% | |
| 58 | 16% | 53% | |
| 59 | 13% | 37% | |
| 60 | 9% | 24% | |
| 61 | 7% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 5% | 95% | |
| 52 | 10% | 90% | |
| 53 | 13% | 81% | |
| 54 | 15% | 68% | Median |
| 55 | 15% | 53% | |
| 56 | 13% | 38% | Last Result |
| 57 | 11% | 25% | |
| 58 | 7% | 14% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 7% | 93% | |
| 52 | 10% | 86% | |
| 53 | 15% | 76% | Median |
| 54 | 14% | 61% | |
| 55 | 14% | 47% | Last Result |
| 56 | 13% | 34% | |
| 57 | 8% | 20% | |
| 58 | 5% | 12% | |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 8% | 95% | |
| 49 | 9% | 87% | |
| 50 | 11% | 78% | |
| 51 | 10% | 67% | Median |
| 52 | 13% | 57% | |
| 53 | 16% | 44% | |
| 54 | 11% | 29% | |
| 55 | 7% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 10% | |
| 57 | 4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 4% | 96% | |
| 47 | 10% | 91% | Last Result |
| 48 | 11% | 81% | |
| 49 | 12% | 69% | Median |
| 50 | 13% | 57% | |
| 51 | 14% | 44% | |
| 52 | 16% | 30% | |
| 53 | 7% | 14% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 46 | 11% | 97% | |
| 47 | 9% | 86% | |
| 48 | 11% | 77% | |
| 49 | 19% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 50 | 14% | 48% | |
| 51 | 14% | 33% | |
| 52 | 9% | 20% | |
| 53 | 6% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 13% | 95% | |
| 34 | 12% | 82% | |
| 35 | 10% | 70% | |
| 36 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 50% | |
| 38 | 14% | 39% | |
| 39 | 16% | 25% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98% | |
| 33 | 4% | 96% | |
| 34 | 24% | 91% | |
| 35 | 13% | 67% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 54% | |
| 37 | 16% | 40% | |
| 38 | 11% | 24% | |
| 39 | 8% | 14% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 9% | 94% | |
| 29 | 9% | 85% | |
| 30 | 14% | 76% | |
| 31 | 9% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 53% | |
| 33 | 16% | 39% | |
| 34 | 9% | 22% | |
| 35 | 6% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 25 August–3 September 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 959
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.67%