Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique, 11 September–5 October 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.0% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.4–30.8% | 24.6–31.7% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 19.4% | 17.9–21.1% | 17.5–21.5% | 17.1–21.9% | 16.4–22.8% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 15.5% | 14.1–17.0% | 13.8–17.5% | 13.4–17.8% | 12.8–18.6% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.3% | 12.2–15.7% | 11.9–16.1% | 11.3–16.8% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 25 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 | 20–30 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 20 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Groen | 10 | 18 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 15–23 |
| sp.a | 18 | 14 | 13–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 | 9–19 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| PVDA | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 6% | 98% | |
| 35 | 10% | 92% | |
| 36 | 14% | 82% | |
| 37 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 38 | 25% | 46% | |
| 39 | 8% | 21% | |
| 40 | 7% | 13% | |
| 41 | 4% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 4% | 97% | |
| 22 | 6% | 94% | |
| 23 | 8% | 87% | |
| 24 | 17% | 79% | |
| 25 | 27% | 62% | Median |
| 26 | 22% | 35% | |
| 27 | 7% | 13% | Last Result |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 8% | 98% | |
| 19 | 17% | 90% | Last Result |
| 20 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 21 | 12% | 39% | |
| 22 | 10% | 27% | |
| 23 | 11% | 17% | |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 5% | 95% | |
| 17 | 30% | 90% | |
| 18 | 29% | 60% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 31% | |
| 20 | 6% | 19% | |
| 21 | 6% | 13% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 97% | |
| 12 | 4% | 94% | |
| 13 | 12% | 91% | |
| 14 | 66% | 79% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 13% | |
| 16 | 2% | 4% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 16% | 98% | |
| 5 | 8% | 82% | |
| 6 | 39% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 11% | 35% | |
| 8 | 24% | 25% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 37% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 30% | 62% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 32% | |
| 5 | 28% | 28% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 83 | 100% | 80–86 | 79–86 | 78–87 | 76–89 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 74 | 77 | 100% | 74–80 | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–83 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 76 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 71–81 | 69–82 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 56 | 63 | 67% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–70 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 62 | 44% | 59–65 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 60 | 12% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 54–66 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 59 | 8% | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 57 | 1.1% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 | 51–63 |
| Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 47 | 52 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–59 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 39–51 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 37–50 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 78 | 3% | 98% | |
| 79 | 5% | 96% | |
| 80 | 9% | 91% | |
| 81 | 13% | 82% | |
| 82 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 83 | 15% | 52% | |
| 84 | 16% | 37% | |
| 85 | 10% | 21% | |
| 86 | 7% | 11% | |
| 87 | 3% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 75 | 11% | 90% | |
| 76 | 14% | 79% | |
| 77 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 78 | 14% | 46% | |
| 79 | 14% | 31% | |
| 80 | 10% | 17% | |
| 81 | 5% | 7% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 72 | 4% | 97% | |
| 73 | 8% | 93% | |
| 74 | 12% | 84% | |
| 75 | 16% | 72% | |
| 76 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 77 | 16% | 41% | |
| 78 | 11% | 25% | |
| 79 | 8% | 14% | |
| 80 | 4% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 96% | |
| 61 | 11% | 91% | |
| 62 | 13% | 80% | |
| 63 | 17% | 67% | Median, Majority |
| 64 | 17% | 50% | |
| 65 | 14% | 33% | |
| 66 | 10% | 19% | |
| 67 | 5% | 9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 94% | |
| 60 | 11% | 87% | |
| 61 | 17% | 76% | |
| 62 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 44% | Majority |
| 64 | 14% | 29% | |
| 65 | 7% | 15% | |
| 66 | 4% | 8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 92% | |
| 58 | 11% | 85% | |
| 59 | 13% | 75% | |
| 60 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 61 | 17% | 43% | |
| 62 | 13% | 26% | |
| 63 | 7% | 12% | Majority |
| 64 | 3% | 6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 5% | 94% | |
| 57 | 10% | 89% | |
| 58 | 19% | 79% | |
| 59 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 43% | |
| 61 | 12% | 27% | |
| 62 | 7% | 15% | |
| 63 | 5% | 8% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 6% | 97% | |
| 54 | 8% | 91% | |
| 55 | 11% | 83% | Last Result |
| 56 | 16% | 72% | |
| 57 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 58 | 15% | 37% | |
| 59 | 11% | 22% | |
| 60 | 6% | 12% | |
| 61 | 3% | 6% | |
| 62 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 5% | 96% | |
| 50 | 10% | 91% | |
| 51 | 16% | 82% | |
| 52 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 53 | 15% | 48% | |
| 54 | 12% | 33% | |
| 55 | 10% | 21% | |
| 56 | 6% | 11% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 95% | |
| 43 | 9% | 91% | |
| 44 | 18% | 82% | |
| 45 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 46 | 15% | 44% | Last Result |
| 47 | 12% | 29% | |
| 48 | 9% | 17% | |
| 49 | 6% | 8% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 40 | 3% | 97% | |
| 41 | 9% | 93% | |
| 42 | 20% | 84% | |
| 43 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 44 | 16% | 47% | |
| 45 | 12% | 31% | |
| 46 | 11% | 19% | |
| 47 | 5% | 8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 5% | 96% | |
| 36 | 7% | 91% | |
| 37 | 10% | 84% | |
| 38 | 17% | 74% | |
| 39 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 31% | |
| 41 | 8% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 3% | 97% | |
| 32 | 10% | 94% | |
| 33 | 15% | 83% | |
| 34 | 28% | 68% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 40% | |
| 36 | 10% | 26% | |
| 37 | 8% | 16% | Last Result |
| 38 | 6% | 8% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique
- Fieldwork period: 11 September–5 October 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.64%