Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 27 November–4 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 29.5% 27.7–31.5% 27.2–32.0% 26.8–32.5% 25.9–33.4%
CD&V 20.5% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.0–16.4% 11.4–17.1%
Groen 8.7% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.1%
Open Vld 14.1% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.3% 9.7–15.1%
sp.a 14.0% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.5–13.6%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
PVDA 2.5% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 40 38–43 38–44 37–45 35–46
CD&V 27 18 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–22
Groen 10 18 15–21 15–22 15–23 14–23
Open Vld 19 17 13–19 13–19 12–19 12–20
sp.a 18 14 13–15 12–17 11–17 10–19
Vlaams Belang 6 12 10–15 10–16 9–16 8–17
PVDA 0 5 2–5 2–6 2–7 2–9

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.5%  
36 1.0% 98.8%  
37 3% 98%  
38 25% 95%  
39 10% 70%  
40 13% 60% Median
41 12% 47%  
42 12% 35%  
43 13% 23% Last Result
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.7%  
15 15% 99.2%  
16 26% 84%  
17 8% 58%  
18 8% 51% Median
19 10% 43%  
20 31% 33%  
21 0.6% 1.2%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 10% 98%  
16 6% 87%  
17 20% 81%  
18 26% 61% Median
19 19% 36%  
20 6% 16%  
21 4% 10%  
22 3% 7%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 3% 100%  
13 16% 97%  
14 7% 81%  
15 8% 74%  
16 13% 66%  
17 16% 53% Median
18 15% 37%  
19 21% 22% Last Result
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 1.1% 98%  
12 2% 97%  
13 18% 94%  
14 61% 77% Median
15 7% 16%  
16 4% 9%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 1.4% 100%  
9 2% 98.6%  
10 8% 96%  
11 18% 88%  
12 30% 71% Median
13 17% 41%  
14 12% 24%  
15 3% 12%  
16 7% 9%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 14% 99.9%  
3 22% 86%  
4 7% 64%  
5 52% 58% Median
6 2% 6%  
7 2% 4%  
8 0.7% 2%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 74 100% 71–78 70–79 69–79 67–81
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 72 100% 68–75 68–76 67–77 66–79
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 74 66 89% 62–69 61–70 61–71 59–72
N-VA – CD&V 70 58 4% 54–61 54–62 53–63 52–65
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA 55 54 0.1% 50–57 49–59 49–59 47–61
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 53 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 46–60
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld 56 52 0% 48–55 47–56 47–57 45–58
CD&V – Groen – sp.a 55 50 0% 46–53 45–54 45–55 43–57
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 48 0% 44–52 43–53 43–53 41–54
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 47 48 0% 45–51 44–52 43–53 41–55
CD&V – Open Vld 46 34 0% 30–38 29–39 29–39 28–39
CD&V – sp.a 45 32 0% 29–34 28–35 28–36 26–37
Open Vld – sp.a 37 31 0% 27–33 26–34 26–35 25–36

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.4%  
69 2% 98.6%  
70 4% 97%  
71 6% 93%  
72 11% 86%  
73 15% 76%  
74 13% 61%  
75 13% 48% Median
76 12% 35%  
77 9% 23%  
78 7% 13%  
79 4% 7%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 8% 97%  
69 8% 90%  
70 9% 82%  
71 12% 73%  
72 17% 60% Median
73 15% 44%  
74 11% 28%  
75 8% 17%  
76 5% 9%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 1.2% 98.9%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 94%  
63 8% 89% Majority
64 11% 82%  
65 11% 71%  
66 15% 60%  
67 15% 45% Median
68 13% 30%  
69 8% 17%  
70 5% 9%  
71 3% 4%  
72 1.0% 1.4%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 7% 97%  
55 7% 90%  
56 10% 83%  
57 13% 73%  
58 17% 60% Median
59 14% 43%  
60 11% 29%  
61 9% 18%  
62 5% 9%  
63 3% 4% Majority
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.2%  
49 4% 98%  
50 6% 94%  
51 8% 88%  
52 9% 80%  
53 17% 71%  
54 14% 54%  
55 12% 40% Last Result, Median
56 10% 28%  
57 8% 18%  
58 5% 10%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 5% 96% Last Result
50 13% 91%  
51 14% 78%  
52 11% 64% Median
53 12% 53%  
54 15% 41%  
55 11% 26%  
56 6% 15%  
57 4% 9%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 0.9% 98.9%  
47 4% 98%  
48 5% 94%  
49 7% 89%  
50 10% 82%  
51 13% 72%  
52 15% 59%  
53 14% 45% Median
54 12% 30%  
55 8% 18%  
56 6% 10% Last Result
57 2% 4%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 4% 98%  
46 5% 94%  
47 9% 89%  
48 15% 80%  
49 13% 65%  
50 13% 52% Median
51 13% 38%  
52 10% 25%  
53 7% 15%  
54 4% 8%  
55 2% 4% Last Result
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 4% 98%  
44 5% 94%  
45 7% 89%  
46 11% 82%  
47 13% 71%  
48 16% 58%  
49 14% 42% Median
50 9% 28%  
51 7% 19%  
52 5% 12%  
53 5% 6%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 7% 92%  
46 8% 84%  
47 11% 76% Last Result
48 16% 64%  
49 13% 48% Median
50 14% 35%  
51 12% 21%  
52 5% 10%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 4% 94%  
31 6% 89%  
32 11% 83%  
33 15% 73%  
34 15% 58%  
35 15% 42% Median
36 9% 27%  
37 6% 18%  
38 6% 12%  
39 6% 6%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 1.1% 99.3%  
28 3% 98%  
29 12% 95%  
30 21% 83%  
31 11% 62%  
32 10% 51% Median
33 14% 41%  
34 20% 27%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 1.5%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 1.3% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 11% 93%  
28 8% 82%  
29 9% 74%  
30 14% 65%  
31 15% 51% Median
32 14% 36%  
33 16% 22%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations