Opinion Poll by Ipsos for RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws, 27 February–6 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 31.3% | 29.4–33.3% | 28.9–33.8% | 28.4–34.3% | 27.6–35.3% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 15.1% | 13.7–16.7% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.3% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.9% | 11.0–15.2% | 10.4–16.0% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.8–15.0% | 10.2–15.7% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.6–12.5% | 8.1–13.1% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 38–47 | 37–48 |
| CD&V | 27 | 20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 15–24 |
| sp.a | 18 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 18 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 |
| Groen | 10 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| PVDA | 0 | 5 | 3–6 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 2–9 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 39 | 11% | 92% | |
| 40 | 17% | 81% | |
| 41 | 13% | 64% | |
| 42 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 42% | Last Result |
| 44 | 14% | 30% | |
| 45 | 10% | 16% | |
| 46 | 3% | 5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 10% | 92% | |
| 17 | 5% | 82% | |
| 18 | 9% | 76% | |
| 19 | 15% | 67% | |
| 20 | 45% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 25% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 8% | 75% | |
| 16 | 9% | 66% | |
| 17 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 34% | Last Result |
| 19 | 22% | 25% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 8% | 98% | |
| 14 | 5% | 90% | |
| 15 | 5% | 85% | |
| 16 | 8% | 80% | |
| 17 | 10% | 72% | |
| 18 | 25% | 61% | Median |
| 19 | 31% | 36% | Last Result |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 12 | 6% | 94% | |
| 13 | 16% | 89% | |
| 14 | 48% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 19% | 24% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 30% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 15% | 69% | |
| 10 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 11 | 24% | 34% | |
| 12 | 5% | 10% | |
| 13 | 3% | 5% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 94% | |
| 4 | 2% | 82% | |
| 5 | 66% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 14% | |
| 7 | 4% | 10% | |
| 8 | 2% | 5% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 78 | 100% | 75–81 | 74–83 | 73–83 | 71–84 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 77 | 100% | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–83 | 71–84 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 74 | 67 | 91% | 63–70 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 60 | 27% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 56–66 | 54–68 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA | 55 | 54 | 0.1% | 51–58 | 50–58 | 49–59 | 47–61 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld | 64 | 53 | 0% | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 | 45–59 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 51 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–56 | 47–57 | 46–59 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 56 | 50 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–54 | 43–56 |
| CD&V – sp.a – Groen | 55 | 49 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 42–56 |
| sp.a – Open Vld – Groen | 47 | 48 | 0% | 44–51 | 43–52 | 42–52 | 41–53 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 36 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 29–42 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–41 |
| sp.a – Open Vld | 37 | 34 | 0% | 30–37 | 29–38 | 28–38 | 27–39 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 4% | 96% | |
| 75 | 10% | 92% | |
| 76 | 10% | 82% | |
| 77 | 14% | 72% | |
| 78 | 18% | 58% | |
| 79 | 13% | 40% | |
| 80 | 11% | 27% | Median |
| 81 | 7% | 16% | |
| 82 | 4% | 9% | |
| 83 | 4% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 4% | 97% | |
| 74 | 8% | 93% | |
| 75 | 9% | 85% | |
| 76 | 17% | 76% | |
| 77 | 17% | 60% | |
| 78 | 10% | 43% | |
| 79 | 14% | 32% | Median |
| 80 | 7% | 18% | |
| 81 | 4% | 11% | |
| 82 | 4% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 8% | 91% | Majority |
| 64 | 10% | 83% | |
| 65 | 7% | 73% | |
| 66 | 7% | 65% | |
| 67 | 13% | 58% | |
| 68 | 15% | 45% | |
| 69 | 17% | 30% | Median |
| 70 | 9% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 95% | |
| 58 | 10% | 87% | |
| 59 | 13% | 78% | |
| 60 | 16% | 64% | |
| 61 | 11% | 48% | |
| 62 | 10% | 37% | Median |
| 63 | 10% | 27% | Majority |
| 64 | 7% | 17% | |
| 65 | 7% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 5% | 96% | |
| 51 | 7% | 91% | |
| 52 | 12% | 84% | |
| 53 | 14% | 73% | |
| 54 | 15% | 59% | |
| 55 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 56 | 12% | 33% | Median |
| 57 | 10% | 21% | |
| 58 | 7% | 11% | |
| 59 | 3% | 4% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 48 | 4% | 97% | |
| 49 | 6% | 92% | |
| 50 | 10% | 86% | |
| 51 | 7% | 76% | |
| 52 | 11% | 69% | |
| 53 | 16% | 58% | |
| 54 | 15% | 42% | |
| 55 | 11% | 27% | Median |
| 56 | 9% | 16% | |
| 57 | 5% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 48 | 9% | 96% | |
| 49 | 13% | 87% | Last Result |
| 50 | 13% | 73% | |
| 51 | 13% | 61% | |
| 52 | 11% | 48% | Median |
| 53 | 11% | 37% | |
| 54 | 10% | 26% | |
| 55 | 7% | 16% | |
| 56 | 4% | 8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 2% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 7% | 90% | |
| 48 | 10% | 83% | |
| 49 | 13% | 73% | |
| 50 | 17% | 60% | |
| 51 | 15% | 44% | |
| 52 | 11% | 29% | Median |
| 53 | 9% | 17% | |
| 54 | 6% | 8% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 5% | 96% | |
| 46 | 5% | 91% | |
| 47 | 9% | 86% | |
| 48 | 14% | 76% | |
| 49 | 14% | 62% | |
| 50 | 13% | 48% | |
| 51 | 14% | 35% | Median |
| 52 | 9% | 20% | |
| 53 | 6% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 96% | |
| 44 | 7% | 92% | |
| 45 | 10% | 85% | |
| 46 | 8% | 75% | |
| 47 | 9% | 67% | Last Result |
| 48 | 11% | 58% | |
| 49 | 13% | 47% | Median |
| 50 | 17% | 34% | |
| 51 | 10% | 16% | |
| 52 | 5% | 6% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 3% | 96% | |
| 33 | 8% | 93% | |
| 34 | 13% | 85% | |
| 35 | 11% | 72% | |
| 36 | 13% | 61% | |
| 37 | 15% | 48% | |
| 38 | 14% | 33% | Median |
| 39 | 15% | 19% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 6% | 94% | |
| 33 | 6% | 88% | |
| 34 | 20% | 82% | |
| 35 | 15% | 62% | |
| 36 | 14% | 48% | |
| 37 | 13% | 34% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 21% | |
| 39 | 10% | 14% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
sp.a – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 6% | 93% | |
| 31 | 6% | 88% | |
| 32 | 12% | 82% | |
| 33 | 13% | 70% | |
| 34 | 11% | 57% | |
| 35 | 14% | 45% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 31% | |
| 37 | 10% | 18% | Last Result |
| 38 | 7% | 8% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws
- Fieldwork period: 27 February–6 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 965
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%