Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 29 May–6 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 26.5% | 24.8–28.3% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.9–29.3% | 23.0–30.2% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 15.3% | 13.9–16.9% | 13.5–17.3% | 13.2–17.7% | 12.6–18.4% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 13.9% | 12.6–15.4% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.9–16.2% | 11.3–16.9% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 12.4% | 11.1–13.8% | 10.8–14.2% | 10.5–14.6% | 9.9–15.3% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.1–13.5% | 9.8–13.9% | 9.3–14.5% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 9.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.3–11.4% | 8.0–11.7% | 7.5–12.3% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 36 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 30–42 |
| CD&V | 27 | 20 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 14–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–22 |
| sp.a | 18 | 14 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 11 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–15 | 8–16 |
| PVDA | 0 | 5 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 2–9 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 6% | 97% | |
| 34 | 20% | 92% | |
| 35 | 16% | 72% | |
| 36 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 46% | |
| 38 | 26% | 34% | |
| 39 | 5% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 8% | 98% | |
| 17 | 4% | 91% | |
| 18 | 4% | 86% | |
| 19 | 7% | 82% | |
| 20 | 61% | 75% | Median |
| 21 | 7% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 2% | 98% | |
| 17 | 7% | 96% | |
| 18 | 19% | 89% | |
| 19 | 38% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 17% | 32% | |
| 21 | 6% | 14% | |
| 22 | 4% | 8% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 23% | 89% | |
| 16 | 12% | 66% | |
| 17 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 28% | |
| 19 | 5% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 47% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 19% | 49% | |
| 16 | 9% | 31% | |
| 17 | 14% | 21% | |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 94% | |
| 10 | 13% | 84% | |
| 11 | 26% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 31% | 45% | |
| 13 | 8% | 14% | |
| 14 | 3% | 6% | |
| 15 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 98% | |
| 4 | 2% | 91% | |
| 5 | 65% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 23% | |
| 7 | 5% | 18% | |
| 8 | 4% | 12% | |
| 9 | 9% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 75 | 100% | 72–78 | 71–78 | 70–79 | 68–81 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 71 | 100% | 68–74 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 64–76 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 74 | 70 | 99.9% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 57 | 0.8% | 53–60 | 53–61 | 52–61 | 50–63 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 56 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 56 | 0.1% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| N-VA – Open Vld | 62 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 54 | 0% | 51–57 | 50–58 | 49–58 | 47–60 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 45–57 |
| Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 47 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–55 | 45–57 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–51 | 43–52 | 42–54 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 39 | 0% | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 32–44 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 30–40 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–40 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 4% | 95% | |
| 72 | 7% | 91% | |
| 73 | 11% | 84% | |
| 74 | 18% | 73% | |
| 75 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 76 | 13% | 40% | |
| 77 | 14% | 27% | |
| 78 | 8% | 13% | |
| 79 | 3% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 96% | |
| 68 | 12% | 93% | |
| 69 | 12% | 81% | |
| 70 | 12% | 69% | Median |
| 71 | 13% | 57% | |
| 72 | 21% | 44% | |
| 73 | 13% | 24% | |
| 74 | 7% | 10% | |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 6% | 95% | |
| 68 | 13% | 89% | |
| 69 | 13% | 76% | |
| 70 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 71 | 14% | 49% | |
| 72 | 18% | 35% | |
| 73 | 9% | 17% | |
| 74 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 8% | 97% | |
| 54 | 12% | 89% | |
| 55 | 9% | 77% | Last Result |
| 56 | 15% | 68% | Median |
| 57 | 15% | 53% | |
| 58 | 15% | 38% | |
| 59 | 12% | 23% | |
| 60 | 4% | 11% | |
| 61 | 4% | 6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 6% | 95% | |
| 53 | 9% | 90% | |
| 54 | 18% | 81% | |
| 55 | 19% | 63% | |
| 56 | 16% | 44% | Last Result, Median |
| 57 | 11% | 28% | |
| 58 | 9% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | |
| 53 | 7% | 92% | |
| 54 | 18% | 86% | |
| 55 | 16% | 68% | |
| 56 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 57 | 15% | 40% | |
| 58 | 15% | 25% | |
| 59 | 6% | 10% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 6% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 87% | |
| 54 | 18% | 77% | |
| 55 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 45% | |
| 57 | 16% | 33% | |
| 58 | 10% | 17% | |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 5% | 96% | |
| 51 | 7% | 91% | |
| 52 | 10% | 84% | |
| 53 | 21% | 74% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 53% | |
| 55 | 15% | 38% | |
| 56 | 10% | 23% | |
| 57 | 6% | 13% | |
| 58 | 5% | 7% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98% | |
| 48 | 10% | 96% | |
| 49 | 12% | 86% | |
| 50 | 11% | 73% | |
| 51 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 48% | |
| 53 | 16% | 32% | |
| 54 | 10% | 16% | |
| 55 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 48 | 13% | 93% | |
| 49 | 13% | 81% | |
| 50 | 13% | 68% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 55% | |
| 52 | 19% | 40% | |
| 53 | 10% | 21% | |
| 54 | 5% | 11% | |
| 55 | 4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98% | |
| 44 | 5% | 95% | |
| 45 | 11% | 89% | |
| 46 | 20% | 78% | |
| 47 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 48 | 13% | 45% | |
| 49 | 10% | 31% | Last Result |
| 50 | 13% | 21% | |
| 51 | 4% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 7% | 93% | |
| 37 | 10% | 86% | |
| 38 | 19% | 76% | |
| 39 | 27% | 58% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 31% | |
| 41 | 6% | 16% | |
| 42 | 5% | 10% | |
| 43 | 4% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 3% | 95% | |
| 32 | 4% | 92% | |
| 33 | 7% | 88% | |
| 34 | 31% | 81% | Median |
| 35 | 19% | 50% | |
| 36 | 11% | 30% | |
| 37 | 11% | 20% | |
| 38 | 5% | 8% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 9% | 92% | |
| 33 | 26% | 82% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 57% | |
| 35 | 15% | 41% | |
| 36 | 11% | 26% | |
| 37 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 38 | 5% | 7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–6 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.83%