Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 20–27 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
CD&V 20.5% 17.2% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.3% 15.0–19.7% 14.3–20.5%
Groen 8.7% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Open Vld 14.1% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
sp.a 14.0% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
PVDA 2.5% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 34 31–36 30–37 30–38 28–39
CD&V 27 21 20–24 20–25 19–26 18–27
Groen 10 18 17–23 17–23 16–23 15–24
Open Vld 19 17 13–19 13–19 13–20 12–21
sp.a 18 15 14–18 14–19 14–19 13–19
Vlaams Belang 6 13 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
PVDA 0 2 2–3 1–5 0–5 0–5

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.4%  
30 5% 98.6%  
31 9% 93%  
32 12% 84%  
33 15% 72%  
34 29% 57% Median
35 13% 28%  
36 6% 15%  
37 6% 10%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 0.6% 99.5%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 35% 97%  
21 17% 63% Median
22 11% 45%  
23 10% 35%  
24 16% 25%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 1.4% 98%  
17 23% 96%  
18 26% 73% Median
19 12% 47%  
20 7% 35%  
21 7% 28%  
22 7% 21%  
23 13% 14%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 10% 99.4%  
14 5% 90%  
15 6% 84%  
16 8% 78%  
17 21% 70% Median
18 21% 49%  
19 26% 28% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.8%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.2% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 44% 98%  
15 13% 54% Median
16 14% 41%  
17 16% 27%  
18 6% 12% Last Result
19 5% 5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.8%  
10 1.0% 99.6%  
11 7% 98.6%  
12 21% 92%  
13 24% 71% Median
14 10% 46%  
15 12% 36%  
16 19% 25%  
17 5% 6%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 5% 97%  
2 64% 93% Median
3 19% 28%  
4 1.3% 9%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 74 73 100% 70–77 69–78 68–78 66–79
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 72 100% 69–76 68–77 67–78 66–79
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 71 100% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–78
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a 80 66 90% 62–70 61–70 61–71 59–73
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA 55 58 10% 55–62 55–63 54–64 53–66
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld 56 58 4% 54–61 53–62 52–63 51–64
CD&V – Groen – sp.a 55 56 0.9% 53–60 52–61 52–62 50–64
N-VA – CD&V 70 55 0.3% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–62
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 54 0.1% 51–58 50–58 49–59 48–61
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 47 51 0% 48–55 47–56 46–56 45–58
N-VA – Open Vld 62 51 0% 47–54 46–55 45–56 43–57
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 47 0% 44–51 43–51 43–52 41–54
CD&V – Open Vld 46 39 0% 35–42 34–43 33–43 33–45
CD&V – sp.a 45 37 0% 34–40 34–41 34–42 33–44
Open Vld – sp.a 37 33 0% 29–36 28–36 27–37 27–38

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 1.2% 99.4%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 8% 93%  
71 11% 86% Median
72 13% 75%  
73 13% 62%  
74 17% 49% Last Result
75 13% 32%  
76 8% 19%  
77 5% 10%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 3% 98.9%  
68 4% 96%  
69 7% 92%  
70 8% 85%  
71 10% 77%  
72 20% 67% Median
73 14% 47%  
74 12% 34%  
75 8% 22%  
76 6% 14%  
77 5% 8%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Majority
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 1.0% 99.7%  
66 1.4% 98.6%  
67 5% 97%  
68 12% 93%  
69 15% 80%  
70 11% 65% Median
71 16% 54%  
72 16% 38%  
73 8% 22%  
74 7% 14%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 1.3% 99.2%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 95%  
63 7% 90% Majority
64 9% 83%  
65 15% 74%  
66 18% 59% Median
67 14% 41%  
68 8% 27%  
69 8% 19%  
70 6% 11%  
71 3% 5%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 3% 99.1%  
55 8% 96% Last Result
56 9% 87% Median
57 17% 79%  
58 14% 62%  
59 13% 48%  
60 13% 36%  
61 8% 23%  
62 5% 15%  
63 6% 10% Majority
64 3% 4%  
65 0.6% 1.3%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.8%  
52 1.5% 98.9%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 7% 89%  
56 11% 82% Last Result, Median
57 15% 72%  
58 15% 57%  
59 13% 42%  
60 12% 29%  
61 9% 17%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4% Majority
64 2% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 1.1% 99.4%  
52 6% 98%  
53 8% 92%  
54 9% 84% Median
55 17% 75% Last Result
56 15% 58%  
57 12% 43%  
58 11% 31%  
59 7% 20%  
60 4% 13%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.3% 0.9% Majority
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.3% 99.4%  
51 3% 98%  
52 4% 95%  
53 11% 91%  
54 19% 80%  
55 18% 61% Median
56 11% 43%  
57 11% 31%  
58 9% 20%  
59 5% 11%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.3% Majority
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.5%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 9% 92%  
52 10% 83%  
53 15% 73% Median
54 12% 58%  
55 12% 46%  
56 13% 34%  
57 10% 20%  
58 6% 11%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.5% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 4% 96% Last Result
48 6% 92%  
49 7% 86%  
50 13% 79% Median
51 17% 67%  
52 12% 50%  
53 15% 37%  
54 8% 22%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.5% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

N-VA – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.9%  
46 2% 97%  
47 6% 95%  
48 10% 89%  
49 12% 79%  
50 14% 67%  
51 12% 53% Median
52 16% 41%  
53 13% 25%  
54 5% 12%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.2%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 1.4% 99.3%  
43 4% 98%  
44 6% 93%  
45 9% 88%  
46 14% 78%  
47 19% 64% Median
48 13% 45%  
49 12% 32% Last Result
50 10% 20%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 1.0% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 4% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 6% 89%  
37 14% 84%  
38 13% 70% Median
39 17% 56%  
40 15% 39%  
41 9% 24%  
42 7% 16%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.7%  
33 1.1% 99.5%  
34 15% 98%  
35 10% 83%  
36 11% 73% Median
37 18% 62%  
38 19% 44%  
39 13% 25%  
40 4% 12%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 4% 97%  
29 5% 93%  
30 8% 88%  
31 11% 79%  
32 17% 68% Median
33 22% 51%  
34 10% 29%  
35 8% 19%  
36 6% 11%  
37 2% 4% Last Result
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations