Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 27 November–3 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
CD&V 20.5% 14.6% 13.3–16.2% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 11.9–17.7%
Open Vld 14.1% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.8–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
sp.a 14.0% 12.3% 11.1–13.8% 10.7–14.2% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Groen 8.7% 12.2% 11.0–13.7% 10.6–14.1% 10.3–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.2–13.5% 9.9–13.9% 9.3–14.6%
PVDA 2.5% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 38 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–43
CD&V 27 18 15–20 15–20 15–20 15–22
Open Vld 19 18 15–20 14–20 13–21 13–22
sp.a 18 15 14–17 14–19 13–19 13–19
Groen 10 15 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–21
Vlaams Belang 6 14 12–17 11–17 11–17 10–18
PVDA 0 5 3–7 3–9 2–9 2–9

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 4% 99.0%  
34 7% 95%  
35 10% 88%  
36 10% 78%  
37 8% 68%  
38 46% 60% Median
39 7% 14%  
40 2% 7%  
41 2% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 15% 99.6%  
16 22% 84%  
17 9% 62%  
18 6% 54% Median
19 11% 48%  
20 36% 37%  
21 0.9% 1.5%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 3% 96%  
15 5% 93%  
16 9% 88%  
17 17% 80%  
18 19% 63% Median
19 33% 44% Last Result
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 1.2%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.2% 99.9%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 46% 96%  
15 14% 51% Median
16 12% 37%  
17 15% 25%  
18 4% 10% Last Result
19 6% 6%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.8% 99.6%  
14 18% 98.8%  
15 37% 81% Median
16 9% 44%  
17 18% 36%  
18 14% 18%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 1.0%  
21 0.3% 0.6%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.6% 99.8%  
11 6% 99.2%  
12 13% 93%  
13 26% 80%  
14 12% 55% Median
15 10% 43%  
16 17% 33%  
17 15% 16%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 9% 96%  
4 3% 87%  
5 68% 84% Median
6 4% 16%  
7 5% 12%  
8 2% 7%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 73 100% 69–76 68–77 67–78 66–79
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 70 100% 68–73 66–74 66–75 64–77
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a 80 70 99.9% 67–74 66–75 65–75 64–77
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 74 67 95% 63–70 63–71 62–72 60–74
N-VA – Open Vld 62 55 0.1% 52–58 50–59 49–60 48–62
N-VA – CD&V 70 55 0.1% 52–58 51–58 50–59 49–61
CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA 55 54 0.1% 51–57 50–58 49–59 48–61
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen 56 52 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 44–58
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 51 0% 48–54 47–55 46–56 44–58
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 51 0% 48–55 47–55 46–56 45–58
CD&V – sp.a – Groen 55 49 0% 46–52 45–53 44–54 43–56
Open Vld – sp.a – Groen 47 49 0% 46–52 44–53 44–54 42–56
CD&V – Open Vld 46 35 0% 33–39 32–39 31–40 29–41
CD&V – sp.a 45 33 0% 30–36 30–37 29–38 29–39
Open Vld – sp.a 37 33 0% 30–36 29–37 28–38 27–39

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.1% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.5%  
68 2% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 9% 90%  
71 8% 81%  
72 16% 73%  
73 18% 57%  
74 14% 39% Median
75 8% 25%  
76 8% 17%  
77 6% 9%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.9% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Majority
64 0.5% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.4%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 13% 91%  
69 15% 77%  
70 16% 62%  
71 14% 46% Median
72 15% 32%  
73 8% 16%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9% Majority
64 2% 99.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 9% 91%  
68 13% 82%  
69 9% 69%  
70 12% 60%  
71 13% 48% Median
72 14% 35%  
73 9% 21%  
74 5% 12%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.1%  
62 3% 98%  
63 8% 95% Majority
64 10% 88%  
65 8% 78%  
66 15% 70% Median
67 17% 55%  
68 15% 38%  
69 8% 23%  
70 7% 15%  
71 4% 9%  
72 3% 4%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

N-VA – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 3% 97%  
51 4% 94%  
52 7% 90%  
53 10% 83%  
54 13% 73%  
55 14% 59%  
56 13% 45% Median
57 19% 32%  
58 7% 13%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 1.1% 99.8%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 4% 96%  
52 4% 93%  
53 12% 88%  
54 21% 76%  
55 15% 55%  
56 9% 40% Median
57 12% 31%  
58 14% 19%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a – Groen – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 5% 97%  
51 6% 93%  
52 11% 86%  
53 19% 75% Median
54 18% 56%  
55 12% 38% Last Result
56 10% 26%  
57 7% 16%  
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 1.3% 98.6%  
47 4% 97%  
48 7% 94%  
49 11% 87%  
50 11% 75%  
51 13% 64% Median
52 14% 51%  
53 13% 37%  
54 12% 24%  
55 6% 12%  
56 4% 7% Last Result
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.0% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 10% 92%  
49 12% 82%  
50 13% 70%  
51 16% 56% Median
52 13% 41%  
53 12% 27%  
54 7% 16%  
55 5% 9%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 3% 99.2%  
47 4% 96%  
48 5% 92%  
49 8% 87% Last Result
50 13% 80%  
51 21% 67%  
52 14% 45% Median
53 8% 31%  
54 12% 23%  
55 7% 11%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

CD&V – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 6% 97%  
46 6% 91%  
47 9% 85%  
48 22% 76% Median
49 18% 54%  
50 10% 36%  
51 10% 26%  
52 7% 16%  
53 5% 9%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.8% 2% Last Result
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Open Vld – sp.a – Groen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 4% 98%  
45 4% 94%  
46 9% 90%  
47 12% 81% Last Result
48 15% 69% Median
49 11% 54%  
50 12% 42%  
51 16% 31%  
52 7% 15%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 1.2% 99.0%  
31 2% 98%  
32 5% 96%  
33 7% 90%  
34 17% 83%  
35 17% 66%  
36 13% 50% Median
37 10% 37%  
38 10% 27%  
39 13% 17%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.7%  
30 13% 97%  
31 10% 84%  
32 14% 74%  
33 12% 60% Median
34 25% 48%  
35 8% 22%  
36 7% 14%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 4% 97%  
30 8% 93%  
31 11% 85%  
32 14% 74%  
33 18% 60% Median
34 16% 42%  
35 11% 26%  
36 8% 15%  
37 5% 8% Last Result
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations