Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 19 November–8 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.3% | 26.6–30.2% | 26.1–30.7% | 25.7–31.2% | 24.8–32.1% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 18.7% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.8–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.7–22.0% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 17.5% | 16.1–19.1% | 15.7–19.6% | 15.3–20.0% | 14.7–20.8% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.1% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.1–11.7% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 24 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–28 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Groen | 10 | 22 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| sp.a | 18 | 9 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–11 | 4–11 |
| PVDA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 35 | 12% | 95% | |
| 36 | 17% | 83% | |
| 37 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 38 | 10% | 49% | |
| 39 | 26% | 38% | |
| 40 | 6% | 13% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 13% | 95% | |
| 22 | 17% | 82% | |
| 23 | 13% | 65% | |
| 24 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 35% | |
| 26 | 10% | 14% | |
| 27 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 5% | 90% | |
| 22 | 10% | 85% | |
| 23 | 37% | 75% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 38% | |
| 25 | 14% | 23% | |
| 26 | 6% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 9% | 95% | |
| 20 | 16% | 86% | |
| 21 | 15% | 70% | |
| 22 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 23 | 20% | 40% | |
| 24 | 18% | 21% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 14% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 41% | 86% | Median |
| 10 | 9% | 46% | |
| 11 | 10% | 37% | |
| 12 | 4% | 26% | |
| 13 | 4% | 22% | |
| 14 | 17% | 17% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 15% | 97% | Last Result |
| 7 | 9% | 83% | |
| 8 | 67% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 7% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 6% | |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 84 | 100% | 81–87 | 80–88 | 79–88 | 78–90 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 74 | 79 | 100% | 76–81 | 75–82 | 74–83 | 73–84 |
| N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a | 80 | 71 | 100% | 68–74 | 67–76 | 67–76 | 65–78 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 71 | 100% | 68–74 | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–78 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – Groen | 56 | 68 | 98% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–73 | 62–74 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 61 | 23% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| N-VA – Open Vld | 62 | 61 | 20% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–65 | 55–67 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 57 | 2% | 54–61 | 53–61 | 52–62 | 51–64 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 56 | 0.3% | 52–59 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 49–62 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 56 | 0.3% | 52–59 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| Open Vld – Groen – sp.a | 47 | 55 | 0.1% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–62 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 40–53 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 45 | 0% | 42–48 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 34 | 0% | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 29–40 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 33 | 0% | 30–37 | 29–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 80 | 4% | 97% | |
| 81 | 4% | 93% | |
| 82 | 11% | 89% | |
| 83 | 15% | 78% | |
| 84 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 85 | 17% | 44% | |
| 86 | 8% | 26% | |
| 87 | 11% | 18% | |
| 88 | 5% | 7% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 75 | 4% | 97% | |
| 76 | 7% | 93% | |
| 77 | 17% | 86% | |
| 78 | 12% | 69% | Median |
| 79 | 20% | 57% | |
| 80 | 17% | 37% | |
| 81 | 10% | 20% | |
| 82 | 7% | 9% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 6% | 98% | |
| 68 | 15% | 92% | |
| 69 | 9% | 77% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 68% | |
| 71 | 12% | 57% | |
| 72 | 13% | 45% | |
| 73 | 12% | 32% | |
| 74 | 11% | 20% | |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 5% | 94% | |
| 69 | 10% | 89% | |
| 70 | 17% | 79% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 61% | |
| 72 | 15% | 49% | |
| 73 | 16% | 34% | |
| 74 | 9% | 19% | |
| 75 | 6% | 9% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 98% | Majority |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 10% | 94% | |
| 66 | 9% | 84% | |
| 67 | 13% | 76% | |
| 68 | 16% | 63% | |
| 69 | 12% | 47% | Median |
| 70 | 9% | 35% | |
| 71 | 15% | 25% | |
| 72 | 5% | 11% | |
| 73 | 4% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 57 | 3% | 95% | |
| 58 | 5% | 92% | |
| 59 | 13% | 88% | |
| 60 | 10% | 75% | |
| 61 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 62 | 20% | 44% | |
| 63 | 13% | 23% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 10% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 11% | 93% | |
| 59 | 17% | 83% | |
| 60 | 14% | 66% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 52% | |
| 62 | 20% | 40% | Last Result |
| 63 | 6% | 20% | Majority |
| 64 | 8% | 14% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 53 | 7% | 97% | |
| 54 | 11% | 91% | |
| 55 | 8% | 80% | |
| 56 | 10% | 72% | Median |
| 57 | 20% | 62% | |
| 58 | 13% | 42% | |
| 59 | 13% | 29% | |
| 60 | 5% | 16% | |
| 61 | 7% | 11% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 7% | 96% | |
| 53 | 7% | 89% | |
| 54 | 18% | 83% | |
| 55 | 11% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 15% | 54% | |
| 57 | 18% | 38% | |
| 58 | 10% | 20% | |
| 59 | 5% | 11% | |
| 60 | 4% | 6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 7% | 95% | |
| 53 | 7% | 88% | |
| 54 | 18% | 81% | |
| 55 | 11% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 16% | 52% | |
| 57 | 17% | 36% | |
| 58 | 9% | 19% | |
| 59 | 5% | 10% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 5% | 97% | |
| 53 | 11% | 92% | |
| 54 | 22% | 81% | Median |
| 55 | 19% | 59% | |
| 56 | 11% | 40% | |
| 57 | 15% | 29% | |
| 58 | 7% | 14% | |
| 59 | 3% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 4% | 97% | |
| 44 | 8% | 93% | |
| 45 | 20% | 85% | |
| 46 | 14% | 65% | Last Result |
| 47 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 48 | 18% | 38% | |
| 49 | 8% | 21% | |
| 50 | 8% | 13% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 42 | 7% | 97% | |
| 43 | 11% | 90% | |
| 44 | 18% | 79% | |
| 45 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 46 | 11% | 41% | |
| 47 | 17% | 30% | |
| 48 | 6% | 13% | |
| 49 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 11% | 97% | |
| 31 | 6% | 86% | |
| 32 | 5% | 81% | |
| 33 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 58% | |
| 35 | 12% | 37% | |
| 36 | 15% | 26% | |
| 37 | 4% | 11% | |
| 38 | 3% | 6% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 4% | 94% | |
| 31 | 6% | 89% | |
| 32 | 23% | 84% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 60% | |
| 34 | 15% | 48% | |
| 35 | 11% | 33% | |
| 36 | 8% | 23% | |
| 37 | 9% | 15% | Last Result |
| 38 | 3% | 6% | |
| 39 | 3% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 19 November–8 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1038
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%