Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Nieuwsblad, 13–17 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
CD&V 20.5% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Groen 8.7% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Open Vld 14.1% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
sp.a 14.0% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
PVDA 2.5% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 40 38–43 37–44 36–44 34–45
CD&V 27 20 16–21 16–22 16–23 15–25
Groen 10 18 16–21 15–23 15–23 14–23
Vlaams Belang 6 15 12–17 12–17 11–17 10–19
Open Vld 19 14 12–17 12–18 12–19 12–19
sp.a 18 13 10–14 9–14 8–14 8–15
PVDA 0 4 2–5 2–5 2–6 2–9

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.4%  
36 1.1% 98.6%  
37 4% 97%  
38 22% 94%  
39 12% 72%  
40 13% 59% Median
41 19% 46%  
42 10% 27%  
43 10% 18% Last Result
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 9% 98%  
17 3% 89%  
18 4% 86%  
19 6% 81%  
20 64% 76% Median
21 5% 11%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 1.3% 100%  
15 7% 98.7%  
16 6% 92%  
17 18% 86%  
18 30% 68% Median
19 19% 38%  
20 6% 19%  
21 5% 13%  
22 3% 8%  
23 5% 5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 12% 97%  
13 16% 86%  
14 16% 70%  
15 9% 54% Median
16 23% 45%  
17 20% 22%  
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.7%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 15% 99.7%  
13 33% 85%  
14 12% 51% Median
15 10% 39%  
16 12% 29%  
17 10% 17%  
18 4% 8%  
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 5% 97%  
10 21% 92%  
11 6% 70%  
12 11% 64%  
13 31% 54% Median
14 22% 23%  
15 0.7% 1.0%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 16% 99.8%  
3 29% 84%  
4 7% 55% Median
5 45% 48%  
6 1.0% 3%  
7 1.2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.9%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 74 100% 71–77 70–78 69–79 67–82
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 72 99.9% 68–75 67–76 67–77 65–78
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a 80 67 95% 63–70 62–71 61–72 60–74
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 74 64 74% 61–68 60–69 59–70 58–71
N-VA – CD&V 70 60 14% 56–63 56–64 54–64 54–66
N-VA – Open Vld 62 55 0.3% 51–57 51–59 50–60 49–62
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 55 0.1% 51–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA 55 54 0% 50–57 49–58 49–59 47–60
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld 56 52 0% 49–56 48–57 47–57 45–59
CD&V – Groen – sp.a 55 50 0% 47–53 46–54 45–55 43–57
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 46 0% 42–49 42–50 41–51 38–53
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 47 45 0% 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
CD&V – Open Vld 46 33 0% 31–37 30–38 29–39 28–40
CD&V – sp.a 45 32 0% 29–34 28–34 27–35 25–37
Open Vld – sp.a 37 26 0% 23–30 22–31 22–31 21–33

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.2%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 9% 92%  
72 11% 84%  
73 13% 72%  
74 14% 59% Median
75 17% 45%  
76 12% 29%  
77 10% 17%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9% Majority
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 1.2% 99.1%  
67 4% 98%  
68 6% 94%  
69 8% 88%  
70 11% 80%  
71 13% 69%  
72 15% 56%  
73 16% 41% Median
74 10% 25%  
75 10% 16%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.6%  
61 1.3% 98.7%  
62 3% 97%  
63 7% 95% Majority
64 9% 88%  
65 12% 79%  
66 15% 68%  
67 17% 53% Median
68 18% 36%  
69 7% 18%  
70 5% 12%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 1.4% 99.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 8% 91%  
62 10% 84%  
63 17% 74% Majority
64 12% 57%  
65 13% 45% Median
66 10% 32%  
67 11% 21%  
68 5% 11%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – CD&V

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 5% 95%  
57 6% 90%  
58 14% 84%  
59 16% 69%  
60 14% 53% Median
61 16% 39%  
62 10% 24%  
63 8% 14% Majority
64 4% 6%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.5%  
50 3% 98.9%  
51 10% 96%  
52 9% 86%  
53 10% 77%  
54 14% 67% Median
55 20% 54%  
56 13% 34%  
57 12% 21%  
58 5% 10%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
63 0.3% 0.3% Majority
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 1.2% 99.6% Last Result
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 95%  
52 6% 89%  
53 9% 82%  
54 14% 73%  
55 18% 59% Median
56 12% 42%  
57 13% 29%  
58 8% 16%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.9% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 1.4% 99.0%  
49 3% 98%  
50 7% 95%  
51 8% 88%  
52 11% 81%  
53 14% 69%  
54 16% 55%  
55 13% 39% Last Result, Median
56 11% 26%  
57 7% 15%  
58 4% 8%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.5%  
47 3% 98.5%  
48 4% 96%  
49 7% 92%  
50 13% 85%  
51 17% 73%  
52 15% 55% Median
53 10% 40%  
54 9% 31%  
55 8% 22%  
56 7% 14% Last Result
57 5% 7%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Groen – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 1.0% 99.2%  
45 3% 98%  
46 5% 95%  
47 8% 90%  
48 13% 82%  
49 14% 69%  
50 15% 55%  
51 12% 39% Median
52 11% 28%  
53 9% 17%  
54 4% 8%  
55 2% 4% Last Result
56 0.8% 1.4%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.5%  
40 0.9% 99.1%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 96%  
43 7% 90%  
44 9% 83%  
45 16% 74%  
46 19% 58%  
47 14% 39% Median
48 11% 25%  
49 6% 14%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.8% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.1%  
40 4% 98%  
41 7% 94%  
42 10% 87%  
43 16% 78%  
44 10% 62%  
45 13% 52% Median
46 13% 39%  
47 12% 26% Last Result
48 7% 14%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.9%  
29 3% 98.5%  
30 3% 95%  
31 4% 93%  
32 14% 89%  
33 26% 75%  
34 13% 49% Median
35 11% 36%  
36 10% 25%  
37 8% 15%  
38 3% 7%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.5%  
26 0.9% 98.6%  
27 1.3% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 9% 92%  
30 21% 83%  
31 9% 62%  
32 12% 53%  
33 18% 41% Median
34 18% 23%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.5% 1.0%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.5%  
22 4% 98%  
23 5% 94%  
24 7% 89%  
25 18% 81%  
26 20% 64%  
27 14% 43% Median
28 11% 29%  
29 7% 18%  
30 6% 11%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations