Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 5–11 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 27.4% | 25.7–29.3% | 25.1–29.8% | 24.7–30.3% | 23.9–31.2% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 15.6% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.8–17.6% | 13.4–18.0% | 12.8–18.7% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.2–18.1% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.0–14.5% | 10.7–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 11.1% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.3–13.3% | 8.8–13.9% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.2% | 8.7–13.8% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 37 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| Groen | 10 | 22 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| CD&V | 27 | 19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 15–23 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–21 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 13 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 9–17 |
| sp.a | 18 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–17 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| PVDA | 0 | 3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 6% | 98% | |
| 34 | 13% | 92% | |
| 35 | 11% | 80% | |
| 36 | 10% | 69% | |
| 37 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 38 | 32% | 44% | |
| 39 | 5% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 11% | 98% | |
| 19 | 11% | 87% | |
| 20 | 8% | 76% | |
| 21 | 10% | 68% | |
| 22 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 23 | 39% | 48% | |
| 24 | 4% | 8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 16% | 93% | |
| 17 | 7% | 77% | |
| 18 | 8% | 70% | |
| 19 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 20 | 46% | 49% | |
| 21 | 2% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 12% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 10% | 86% | |
| 15 | 10% | 77% | |
| 16 | 10% | 67% | |
| 17 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 36% | |
| 19 | 10% | 13% | Last Result |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 11% | 96% | |
| 12 | 29% | 85% | |
| 13 | 25% | 57% | Median |
| 14 | 7% | 32% | |
| 15 | 11% | 24% | |
| 16 | 9% | 13% | |
| 17 | 4% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 12 | 2% | 96% | |
| 13 | 17% | 94% | |
| 14 | 62% | 78% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 16% | |
| 16 | 3% | 8% | |
| 17 | 4% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 44% | 98% | |
| 3 | 26% | 54% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 28% | |
| 5 | 21% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 72 | 100% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 67–77 | 65–78 |
| Groen – CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 74 | 70 | 99.9% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–75 | 63–76 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 69 | 99.5% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–75 |
| N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a | 80 | 67 | 96% | 63–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 60–74 |
| Groen – CD&V – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 57 | 1.4% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 | 50–63 |
| Groen – CD&V – Open Vld | 56 | 56 | 0.5% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–61 | 50–62 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 55 | 0.1% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| Groen – CD&V – sp.a | 55 | 54 | 0% | 51–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 | 47–60 |
| N-VA – Open Vld | 62 | 53 | 0% | 49–56 | 49–57 | 48–58 | 47–60 |
| Groen – Open Vld – sp.a | 47 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 50 | 0% | 46–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–57 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 49 | 0% | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–53 | 42–55 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–41 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 33 | 0% | 29–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 27–38 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 31 | 0% | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 | 25–36 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 7% | 95% | |
| 69 | 10% | 88% | |
| 70 | 9% | 78% | |
| 71 | 16% | 70% | |
| 72 | 20% | 53% | |
| 73 | 12% | 33% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 21% | |
| 75 | 7% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 8% | 93% | |
| 68 | 8% | 85% | |
| 69 | 10% | 77% | |
| 70 | 17% | 67% | |
| 71 | 17% | 49% | |
| 72 | 12% | 32% | Median |
| 73 | 7% | 20% | |
| 74 | 6% | 13% | Last Result |
| 75 | 5% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 94% | |
| 67 | 12% | 88% | |
| 68 | 17% | 76% | |
| 69 | 16% | 60% | |
| 70 | 15% | 44% | Median |
| 71 | 14% | 29% | |
| 72 | 8% | 16% | |
| 73 | 5% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 64 | 5% | 89% | |
| 65 | 10% | 84% | |
| 66 | 21% | 74% | |
| 67 | 12% | 53% | |
| 68 | 13% | 41% | Median |
| 69 | 11% | 28% | |
| 70 | 8% | 18% | |
| 71 | 6% | 9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – CD&V – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98% | |
| 53 | 5% | 96% | |
| 54 | 8% | 91% | |
| 55 | 11% | 83% | Last Result |
| 56 | 13% | 71% | |
| 57 | 15% | 59% | |
| 58 | 12% | 44% | Median |
| 59 | 15% | 32% | |
| 60 | 8% | 17% | |
| 61 | 5% | 9% | |
| 62 | 3% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 1.4% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Groen – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 7% | 93% | |
| 54 | 7% | 86% | |
| 55 | 12% | 79% | |
| 56 | 19% | 67% | Last Result |
| 57 | 16% | 48% | |
| 58 | 11% | 32% | Median |
| 59 | 7% | 21% | |
| 60 | 6% | 14% | |
| 61 | 6% | 8% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 51 | 2% | 97% | |
| 52 | 6% | 95% | |
| 53 | 10% | 89% | |
| 54 | 19% | 78% | |
| 55 | 14% | 60% | |
| 56 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 57 | 16% | 32% | |
| 58 | 10% | 16% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 4% | 95% | |
| 51 | 7% | 91% | |
| 52 | 13% | 84% | |
| 53 | 13% | 71% | |
| 54 | 15% | 58% | |
| 55 | 11% | 43% | Last Result, Median |
| 56 | 12% | 32% | |
| 57 | 13% | 20% | |
| 58 | 4% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
N-VA – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 6% | 96% | |
| 50 | 5% | 90% | |
| 51 | 10% | 85% | |
| 52 | 21% | 75% | |
| 53 | 11% | 54% | |
| 54 | 13% | 42% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 30% | |
| 56 | 9% | 18% | |
| 57 | 5% | 9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 48 | 4% | 95% | |
| 49 | 8% | 90% | |
| 50 | 12% | 82% | |
| 51 | 16% | 70% | |
| 52 | 15% | 55% | |
| 53 | 12% | 40% | Median |
| 54 | 11% | 28% | |
| 55 | 10% | 16% | |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 6% | 96% | |
| 47 | 8% | 89% | |
| 48 | 11% | 82% | |
| 49 | 18% | 71% | Last Result |
| 50 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 36% | |
| 52 | 8% | 22% | |
| 53 | 6% | 14% | |
| 54 | 5% | 8% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 5% | 95% | |
| 46 | 7% | 90% | |
| 47 | 13% | 84% | |
| 48 | 17% | 70% | |
| 49 | 13% | 53% | |
| 50 | 10% | 40% | Median |
| 51 | 11% | 30% | |
| 52 | 11% | 20% | |
| 53 | 6% | 8% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 3% | 95% | |
| 32 | 6% | 92% | |
| 33 | 17% | 86% | |
| 34 | 16% | 69% | |
| 35 | 12% | 53% | |
| 36 | 9% | 41% | Median |
| 37 | 12% | 32% | |
| 38 | 13% | 20% | |
| 39 | 5% | 7% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 29 | 8% | 98% | |
| 30 | 13% | 90% | |
| 31 | 9% | 77% | |
| 32 | 9% | 68% | |
| 33 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 31% | 42% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 27 | 8% | 96% | |
| 28 | 12% | 88% | |
| 29 | 10% | 75% | |
| 30 | 14% | 65% | |
| 31 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 34% | |
| 33 | 11% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 996
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%