Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT, 25 March–14 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 31.9% 27.9% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
CD&V 20.5% 14.7% 13.4–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.7–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Groen 8.7% 14.6% 13.3–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Open Vld 14.1% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
sp.a 14.0% 12.7% 11.5–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.7%
Vlaams Belang 5.9% 9.3% 8.3–10.6% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
PVDA 2.5% 5.9% 5.0–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA 43 38 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
CD&V 27 18 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–22
Groen 10 19 17–23 17–23 16–23 15–24
Open Vld 19 19 17–20 16–21 15–23 13–24
sp.a 18 15 14–19 14–19 14–19 13–19
Vlaams Belang 6 10 8–12 8–13 8–13 8–14
PVDA 0 5 3–5 2–6 2–8 2–9

N-VA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.7%  
32 1.1% 99.5%  
33 2% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 14% 91%  
36 9% 77%  
37 16% 68%  
38 31% 52% Median
39 10% 21%  
40 5% 11%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

CD&V

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 13% 99.4%  
16 16% 86%  
17 15% 70%  
18 9% 55% Median
19 12% 46%  
20 32% 33%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100% Last Result
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 1.4% 98%  
17 12% 97%  
18 24% 85%  
19 12% 61% Median
20 11% 49%  
21 11% 38%  
22 12% 27%  
23 14% 15%  
24 0.5% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Open Vld

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.4%  
15 2% 98%  
16 4% 96%  
17 13% 93%  
18 23% 79%  
19 25% 56% Last Result, Median
20 23% 31%  
21 3% 8%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

sp.a

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 31% 98.8%  
15 19% 68% Median
16 10% 49%  
17 12% 39%  
18 12% 27% Last Result
19 14% 15%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 24% 99.5%  
9 14% 76%  
10 20% 62% Median
11 26% 42%  
12 8% 16%  
13 8% 8%  
14 0.3% 0.8%  
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

PVDA

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 19% 90%  
4 6% 71%  
5 59% 66% Median
6 2% 6%  
7 1.0% 4%  
8 1.3% 3%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld 89 74 100% 70–78 69–78 68–79 67–81
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 74 72 100% 69–75 68–76 68–77 66–79
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a 80 72 100% 68–76 68–76 67–77 65–78
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a 88 71 100% 68–74 67–75 66–76 65–77
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA 55 58 4% 55–61 53–62 53–63 51–65
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld 56 56 0.5% 53–60 52–61 51–61 50–62
N-VA – Open Vld 62 56 0.5% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–62
N-VA – CD&V 70 55 0.1% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–62
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a 47 54 0% 51–58 51–59 49–59 48–60
CD&V – Groen – sp.a 55 54 0% 50–57 49–58 48–59 47–61
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a 64 53 0% 49–56 49–57 48–58 46–59
N-VA – Vlaams Belang 49 47 0% 45–50 43–51 43–52 41–53
CD&V – Open Vld 46 36 0% 33–40 33–40 32–41 31–43
CD&V – sp.a 45 34 0% 31–37 30–38 30–39 29–39
Open Vld – sp.a 37 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–39 29–40

N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 93%  
71 7% 89%  
72 10% 82%  
73 17% 73%  
74 16% 55%  
75 15% 39% Median
76 10% 25%  
77 5% 15%  
78 6% 10%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.8% 1.5%  
81 0.6% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.4% 99.2%  
68 6% 98%  
69 5% 92%  
70 7% 87%  
71 16% 80% Median
72 15% 64%  
73 22% 50%  
74 10% 28% Last Result
75 8% 18%  
76 6% 9%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Majority
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 3% 98%  
68 6% 95%  
69 10% 89%  
70 11% 78%  
71 11% 67%  
72 16% 56% Median
73 12% 40%  
74 9% 29%  
75 10% 20%  
76 6% 10%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.8% 1.3%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100% Majority
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 1.5% 98.9%  
67 3% 97%  
68 8% 95%  
69 15% 87%  
70 17% 73%  
71 13% 56% Median
72 14% 43%  
73 11% 29%  
74 10% 19%  
75 5% 9%  
76 3% 4%  
77 1.1% 1.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 2% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 5% 95%  
55 9% 90% Last Result
56 5% 81%  
57 16% 76% Median
58 17% 60%  
59 14% 43%  
60 13% 29%  
61 6% 15%  
62 5% 10%  
63 2% 4% Majority
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

CD&V – Groen – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 1.5% 98.7%  
52 3% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 13% 88%  
55 13% 75%  
56 14% 62% Last Result, Median
57 16% 48%  
58 12% 32%  
59 9% 20%  
60 5% 10%  
61 4% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.5% Majority
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

N-VA – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.2% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 8% 92%  
54 12% 84%  
55 15% 72%  
56 19% 57%  
57 12% 38% Median
58 11% 26%  
59 8% 15%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 2% Last Result
63 0.2% 0.5% Majority
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

N-VA – CD&V

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.2%  
51 3% 96%  
52 6% 93%  
53 10% 87%  
54 12% 76%  
55 24% 64%  
56 12% 40% Median
57 11% 28%  
58 9% 17%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.8% 1.4%  
62 0.6% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Groen – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
48 0.7% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 2% 97%  
51 6% 95%  
52 11% 89%  
53 16% 79% Median
54 16% 62%  
55 16% 46%  
56 11% 30%  
57 9% 19%  
58 6% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Groen – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 3% 99.2%  
49 4% 97%  
50 5% 92%  
51 6% 87%  
52 15% 81% Median
53 15% 67%  
54 17% 52%  
55 12% 35% Last Result
56 8% 23%  
57 7% 15%  
58 5% 8%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 1.0% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0% Majority

CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 3% 98%  
49 8% 95%  
50 10% 87%  
51 13% 77%  
52 12% 64% Median
53 13% 52%  
54 15% 39%  
55 11% 24%  
56 7% 13%  
57 3% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0% Last Result

N-VA – Vlaams Belang

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 94%  
45 8% 90%  
46 24% 82%  
47 14% 59%  
48 17% 45% Median
49 12% 28% Last Result
50 6% 16%  
51 6% 10%  
52 2% 3%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

CD&V – Open Vld

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 7% 97%  
34 8% 90%  
35 17% 82%  
36 18% 66%  
37 11% 48% Median
38 11% 36%  
39 12% 25%  
40 10% 14%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.8% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

CD&V – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 6% 98%  
31 10% 91%  
32 10% 81%  
33 9% 71% Median
34 22% 62%  
35 17% 40%  
36 11% 23%  
37 5% 12%  
38 4% 7%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vld – sp.a

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.7%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 7% 97%  
32 9% 90%  
33 11% 80%  
34 18% 69% Median
35 15% 51%  
36 14% 37%  
37 10% 23% Last Result
38 7% 13%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.8% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations