Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 6–14 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 31.9% | 28.1% | 26.3–30.0% | 25.8–30.5% | 25.4–31.0% | 24.6–31.9% |
| CD&V | 20.5% | 17.1% | 15.7–18.8% | 15.3–19.2% | 14.9–19.6% | 14.3–20.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 5.9% | 14.8% | 13.4–16.3% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.1–17.8% |
| Groen | 8.7% | 12.1% | 10.8–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Open Vld | 14.1% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| sp.a | 14.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.6–13.7% |
| PVDA | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA | 43 | 38 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 32–43 |
| CD&V | 27 | 21 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 16–26 |
| Vlaams Belang | 6 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Groen | 10 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Open Vld | 19 | 13 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 |
| sp.a | 18 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 |
| PVDA | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
N-VA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the N-VA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 6% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 92% | |
| 36 | 12% | 84% | |
| 37 | 13% | 72% | |
| 38 | 30% | 59% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 29% | |
| 40 | 8% | 16% | |
| 41 | 6% | 8% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CD&V page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 44% | 97% | |
| 21 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 10% | 38% | |
| 23 | 10% | 28% | |
| 24 | 14% | 18% | |
| 25 | 3% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 28% | 95% | |
| 18 | 15% | 67% | |
| 19 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 20 | 35% | 44% | |
| 21 | 5% | 8% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 14% | 97% | |
| 15 | 51% | 84% | Median |
| 16 | 12% | 33% | |
| 17 | 12% | 21% | |
| 18 | 7% | 8% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vld
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vld page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 21% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 14 | 12% | 32% | |
| 15 | 7% | 20% | |
| 16 | 6% | 13% | |
| 17 | 4% | 7% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
sp.a
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the sp.a page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 3% | 95% | |
| 13 | 21% | 92% | |
| 14 | 54% | 70% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 16% | |
| 16 | 3% | 6% | |
| 17 | 3% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
PVDA
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PVDA page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 54% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 42% | |
| 4 | 3% | 12% | |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld | 89 | 72 | 100% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 |
| N-VA – CD&V – sp.a | 88 | 73 | 100% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 68–76 | 67–78 |
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a | 74 | 64 | 76% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 |
| N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a | 80 | 65 | 84% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| N-VA – CD&V | 70 | 59 | 4% | 56–62 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 53–64 |
| N-VA – Vlaams Belang | 49 | 57 | 0.3% | 53–59 | 52–60 | 52–60 | 50–62 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA | 55 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 47–59 |
| N-VA – Open Vld | 62 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–57 |
| CD&V – Groen – Open Vld | 56 | 50 | 0% | 48–53 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 45–57 |
| CD&V – Groen – sp.a | 55 | 50 | 0% | 48–53 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 45–56 |
| CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a | 64 | 48 | 0% | 46–52 | 46–53 | 45–53 | 43–55 |
| Groen – Open Vld – sp.a | 47 | 42 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 |
| CD&V – Open Vld | 46 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 32–38 | 32–39 | 30–41 |
| CD&V – sp.a | 45 | 35 | 0% | 33–38 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 |
| Open Vld – sp.a | 37 | 27 | 0% | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–32 | 23–33 |
N-VA – CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 7% | 92% | |
| 71 | 14% | 84% | |
| 72 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 73 | 16% | 46% | |
| 74 | 11% | 30% | |
| 75 | 10% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 7% | 92% | |
| 71 | 10% | 85% | |
| 72 | 17% | 75% | |
| 73 | 22% | 58% | Median |
| 74 | 14% | 36% | |
| 75 | 13% | 22% | |
| 76 | 7% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 15% | 91% | |
| 63 | 19% | 76% | Median, Majority |
| 64 | 18% | 58% | |
| 65 | 13% | 40% | |
| 66 | 12% | 27% | |
| 67 | 8% | 14% | |
| 68 | 4% | 7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 61 | 4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 10% | 94% | |
| 63 | 10% | 84% | Majority |
| 64 | 12% | 73% | |
| 65 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 66 | 19% | 42% | |
| 67 | 12% | 23% | |
| 68 | 7% | 12% | |
| 69 | 3% | 5% | |
| 70 | 2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – CD&V
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 5% | 92% | |
| 57 | 10% | 88% | |
| 58 | 19% | 77% | |
| 59 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 38% | |
| 61 | 11% | 25% | |
| 62 | 10% | 14% | |
| 63 | 3% | 4% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
N-VA – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 12% | 89% | |
| 55 | 13% | 77% | |
| 56 | 13% | 63% | |
| 57 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 58 | 24% | 37% | |
| 59 | 8% | 14% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a – PVDA
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 50 | 7% | 96% | |
| 51 | 14% | 89% | |
| 52 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 53 | 14% | 56% | |
| 54 | 12% | 42% | |
| 55 | 13% | 30% | Last Result |
| 56 | 7% | 17% | |
| 57 | 7% | 10% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
N-VA – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 9% | 95% | |
| 49 | 10% | 86% | |
| 50 | 10% | 76% | |
| 51 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 52 | 20% | 44% | |
| 53 | 10% | 24% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – Groen – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 5% | 98% | |
| 48 | 18% | 93% | |
| 49 | 14% | 76% | Median |
| 50 | 17% | 61% | |
| 51 | 15% | 44% | |
| 52 | 13% | 29% | |
| 53 | 9% | 17% | |
| 54 | 4% | 8% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Groen – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 10% | 94% | |
| 49 | 20% | 84% | |
| 50 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 49% | |
| 52 | 15% | 35% | |
| 53 | 11% | 20% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 7% | 95% | |
| 47 | 18% | 88% | |
| 48 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 49 | 18% | 50% | |
| 50 | 14% | 32% | |
| 51 | 7% | 18% | |
| 52 | 6% | 11% | |
| 53 | 4% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Groen – Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 5% | 97% | |
| 41 | 14% | 92% | |
| 42 | 30% | 77% | Median |
| 43 | 18% | 47% | |
| 44 | 12% | 29% | |
| 45 | 7% | 17% | |
| 46 | 5% | 11% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 48 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
CD&V – Open Vld
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 9% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 21% | 90% | |
| 34 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 52% | |
| 36 | 17% | 38% | |
| 37 | 11% | 22% | |
| 38 | 6% | 11% | |
| 39 | 3% | 5% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
CD&V – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 8% | 95% | |
| 34 | 30% | 87% | |
| 35 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 38% | |
| 37 | 10% | 24% | |
| 38 | 10% | 13% | |
| 39 | 3% | 4% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vld – sp.a
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 25 | 7% | 96% | |
| 26 | 21% | 89% | |
| 27 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 28 | 17% | 37% | |
| 29 | 7% | 21% | |
| 30 | 7% | 13% | |
| 31 | 3% | 6% | |
| 32 | 2% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 6–14 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%