Partij van de Arbeid van België

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 5.3% (General Election of 26 May 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 9.8% 8.3–12.8% 8.0–13.3% 7.8–13.8% 7.3–14.6%
23 April–3 May 2024 iVOX
Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen		 8.8% 7.9–9.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.5–10.3% 7.1–10.8%
8–18 April 2024 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
11–18 March 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
22 January–8 February 2024 Kantar
Knack and Le Vif		 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.5% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.5%
9–22 January 2024 iVOX
Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds		 9.3% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.1–10.7% 7.7–11.1%
8–22 January 2024 Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.8–12.2% 9.6–12.4% 9.1–12.9%
4–11 December 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
23–28 November 2023 iVOX
Gazet van Antwerpen		 8.7% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
10 September–9 October 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 8.8% 7.5–10.5% 7.1–11.0% 6.8–11.5% 6.2–12.3%
18–25 September 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
29 May–6 June 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
20–27 March 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
13–23 March 2023 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 9.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–29 January 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 5.6% 4.5–7.2% 4.2–7.6% 4.0–8.0% 3.5–8.8%
21–29 November 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
7–13 September 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
6–14 June 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.1%
14–31 March 2022 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 9.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–22 March 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.9% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.5%
1–8 December 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.5%
7–14 September 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
25 May–1 June 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.3–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
29 March–19 April 2021 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 7.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 March 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.2–10.6%
2–8 December 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.8%
2–8 October 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
28 August–1 September 2020 Dedicated
Soirmag		 1.8% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%
10–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
9–28 April 2020 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		 8.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 March 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–12.0%
29 November–6 December 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
2–10 September 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partij van de Arbeid van België.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4.5–5.5% 0% 100% Last Result
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 1.3% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 15% 98.7%  
8.5–9.5% 29% 84%  
9.5–10.5% 18% 55% Median
10.5–11.5% 11% 37%  
11.5–12.5% 13% 26%  
12.5–13.5% 9% 13%  
13.5–14.5% 3% 4%  
14.5–15.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 0%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 26 May 2019)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12 9–16 8–18 7–18 7–19
23 April–3 May 2024 iVOX
Overlegcentrum van Vlaamse Verenigingen		 11 8–12 7–13 7–13 7–13
8–18 April 2024 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 14 13–18 13–18 13–19 13–19
11–18 March 2024 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 9–13 8–14 8–14 7–14
22 January–8 February 2024 Kantar
Knack and Le Vif		 13 12–14 11–15 11–16 9–18
9–22 January 2024 iVOX
Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds		 11 9–13 9–13 8–13 7–14
8–22 January 2024 Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		 13 12–14 12–14 11–14 10–16
4–11 December 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 9–14 9–14 8–14 7–15
23–28 November 2023 iVOX
Gazet van Antwerpen		 9 7–12 7–13 7–13 6–13
10 September–9 October 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 11 7–13 7–14 7–14 5–14
18–25 September 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 12 9–13 8–14 7–14 7–15
29 May–6 June 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 13 11–14 10–14 9–15 8–17
20–27 March 2023 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8 7–11 7–12 6–13 5–13
13–23 March 2023 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
16–29 January 2023 Kantar
La Libre Belgique and RTBf		 4 2–7 1–7 0–8 0–9
21–29 November 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7 6–9 5–10 5–11 4–12
7–13 September 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9 7–13 7–13 7–13 7–14
6–14 June 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 9 7–12 7–13 7–13 6–14
14–31 March 2022 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
15–22 March 2022 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10 8–13 7–13 7–13 7–14
1–8 December 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 10 8–13 7–13 7–13 7–14
7–14 September 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7 7–9 6–11 5–12 5–13
25 May–1 June 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8 7–10 7–10 6–12 5–13
29 March–19 April 2021 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard and VRT		          
4–9 March 2021 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8 7–11 7–12 7–13 5–13
2–8 December 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7 4–7 4–8 4–8 2–10
2–8 October 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 5 4–7 3–7 2–7 1–8
28 August–1 September 2020 Dedicated
Soirmag		 0 0 0 0 0
10–15 June 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 7 5–8 5–9 5–10 4–12
9–28 April 2020 TNS and Universiteit Antwerpen
De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT		          
4–9 March 2020 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 11 8–13 8–14 7–14 7–15
29 November–6 December 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 8 7–12 7–13 7–13 5–13
2–10 September 2019 Ipsos
Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM		 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 2–8

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partij van de Arbeid van België.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 3% 100%  
8 5% 97%  
9 9% 92%  
10 8% 83%  
11 17% 75%  
12 11% 58% Median
13 15% 48%  
14 16% 33%  
15 5% 17%  
16 4% 12%  
17 3% 8%  
18 5% 6%  
19 0.9% 1.0%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%