Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 4–11 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 25.7% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.1% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Vooruit 13.8% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.3–14.5%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Groen 7.3% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.3% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.3% 0.1% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 31 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–40
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 34 31–36 31–37 30–38 28–39
Vooruit 18 18 17–20 16–21 15–22 14–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 14 12–16 11–16 11–16 11–18
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 7–16
Groen 9 8 5–9 5–10 4–11 3–12
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 9 5 2–7 2–7 2–8 1–10
Team Fouad Ahidar 1 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.0%  
31 11% 97% Last Result
32 18% 86%  
33 8% 67%  
34 18% 59% Median
35 21% 42%  
36 12% 21%  
37 6% 9%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.4%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 15% 96% Last Result
32 14% 81%  
33 11% 67%  
34 12% 56% Median
35 19% 44%  
36 17% 25%  
37 5% 8%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0.6% 99.7%  
15 4% 99.1%  
16 4% 95%  
17 30% 91%  
18 30% 61% Last Result, Median
19 18% 32%  
20 7% 14%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 8% 99.9%  
12 26% 92%  
13 12% 66%  
14 15% 54% Median
15 14% 39%  
16 24% 26% Last Result
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.8% 99.9%  
8 0.5% 99.2%  
9 1.2% 98.7% Last Result
10 19% 98%  
11 24% 78%  
12 26% 54% Median
13 10% 28%  
14 15% 19%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 1.0%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 99.7%  
4 2% 98.9%  
5 10% 97%  
6 19% 86%  
7 15% 67%  
8 21% 53% Median
9 24% 32% Last Result
10 2% 7%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 14% 99.4%  
3 15% 85%  
4 5% 70%  
5 36% 65% Median
6 18% 29%  
7 7% 11%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.4% 2% Last Result
10 0.4% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 37% 48% Last Result
2 10% 12%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 82 100% 78–85 77–85 76–86 75–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 74 70 99.9% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–77
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 62 68 98.6% 64–71 63–72 63–73 61–74
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 65 66 91% 63–69 61–70 60–71 59–72
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 58 57 2% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–63
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 52 0% 49–56 48–57 47–58 46–58
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 51 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 44–58
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 47 0% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–54
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 52 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–50
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 43 39 0% 36–43 35–43 35–45 32–46
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 40 39 0% 35–41 34–43 34–43 33–45
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 37 0% 33–40 33–41 32–41 30–42
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 34 32 0% 29–35 28–36 28–36 27–37
Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 36 30 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–37
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 34 26 0% 23–29 22–30 21–31 19–33
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 27 23 0% 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 25 18 0% 15–21 15–22 14–23 13–25

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 2% 99.2%  
77 2% 97%  
78 7% 95% Last Result
79 12% 88%  
80 13% 76%  
81 12% 63%  
82 13% 51% Median
83 21% 38%  
84 5% 17%  
85 8% 12%  
86 2% 4%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.9% Majority
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 4% 97%  
67 6% 94%  
68 9% 88%  
69 18% 79%  
70 17% 61%  
71 15% 44% Median
72 10% 29%  
73 8% 18%  
74 3% 10% Last Result
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
63 5% 98.6% Majority
64 7% 94%  
65 9% 86%  
66 6% 77%  
67 17% 71%  
68 18% 54% Median
69 9% 36%  
70 13% 26%  
71 8% 13%  
72 3% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.8% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 3% 97%  
62 3% 94%  
63 9% 91% Majority
64 14% 81%  
65 14% 67% Last Result
66 18% 52% Median
67 13% 34%  
68 8% 22%  
69 7% 14%  
70 5% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.9% 1.1%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 2% 99.2%  
52 5% 97%  
53 4% 93%  
54 13% 88%  
55 9% 75%  
56 11% 66%  
57 25% 55% Median
58 9% 31% Last Result
59 10% 21%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 2% 2% Majority
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 3% 96%  
49 4% 93%  
50 14% 89%  
51 14% 75%  
52 15% 60%  
53 16% 46% Median
54 11% 30%  
55 7% 19%  
56 6% 11% Last Result
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.3%  
46 3% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 12% 93%  
49 8% 81%  
50 12% 72%  
51 19% 60%  
52 10% 41% Last Result, Median
53 14% 31%  
54 6% 17%  
55 5% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.7%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 10% 91%  
46 10% 80%  
47 22% 71% Last Result
48 19% 49% Median
49 7% 30%  
50 8% 23%  
51 10% 15%  
52 4% 5%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 8% 92%  
42 17% 84%  
43 14% 66%  
44 7% 52%  
45 14% 46% Median
46 17% 32%  
47 5% 15%  
48 5% 10%  
49 3% 5%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.5%  
34 1.4% 99.1%  
35 4% 98%  
36 9% 93%  
37 7% 84%  
38 14% 77%  
39 17% 63%  
40 17% 46% Median
41 12% 29%  
42 7% 18%  
43 6% 11% Last Result
44 1.4% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.2% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 5% 94%  
36 13% 89%  
37 11% 77%  
38 16% 66%  
39 15% 50% Median
40 15% 35% Last Result
41 11% 20%  
42 4% 10%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.2%  
32 2% 98%  
33 10% 96%  
34 11% 86%  
35 8% 75%  
36 14% 67%  
37 19% 52% Median
38 11% 33%  
39 9% 22%  
40 8% 13%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 1.3% 99.5%  
28 3% 98%  
29 6% 95%  
30 16% 89%  
31 22% 73%  
32 16% 51% Median
33 12% 34%  
34 9% 22% Last Result
35 8% 14%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.6% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 4% 96%  
27 4% 92%  
28 12% 88%  
29 13% 76%  
30 23% 63%  
31 12% 40% Median
32 10% 28%  
33 9% 18%  
34 5% 9%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.0% 2% Last Result
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 0.8% 99.4%  
21 3% 98.6%  
22 6% 96%  
23 9% 90%  
24 11% 81%  
25 13% 69%  
26 12% 56%  
27 14% 44% Median
28 14% 30%  
29 9% 16%  
30 3% 7%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0% 0.1% Last Result
35 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.1%  
19 6% 97%  
20 6% 92%  
21 11% 86%  
22 22% 75%  
23 20% 53% Median
24 12% 33%  
25 12% 21%  
26 5% 9%  
27 2% 4% Last Result
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 2% 98.8%  
15 11% 97%  
16 7% 86%  
17 13% 79%  
18 17% 66%  
19 14% 49% Median
20 11% 35%  
21 18% 24%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations