Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 18–21 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie |
23.9% |
24.6% |
22.9–26.4% |
22.4–26.9% |
22.0–27.4% |
21.2–28.3% |
Vlaams Belang |
22.7% |
23.5% |
21.8–25.3% |
21.4–25.8% |
21.0–26.2% |
20.2–27.1% |
Vooruit |
13.8% |
15.5% |
14.1–17.1% |
13.7–17.5% |
13.4–17.9% |
12.7–18.7% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
13.0% |
13.3% |
12.0–14.8% |
11.6–15.2% |
11.3–15.6% |
10.7–16.3% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België |
8.3% |
7.9% |
6.9–9.1% |
6.6–9.4% |
6.4–9.7% |
5.9–10.3% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
8.3% |
7.2% |
6.2–8.4% |
6.0–8.7% |
5.7–9.0% |
5.3–9.6% |
Groen |
7.3% |
6.9% |
6.0–8.0% |
5.7–8.4% |
5.5–8.7% |
5.1–9.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
30 |
8% |
96% |
|
31 |
23% |
87% |
Last Result |
32 |
18% |
64% |
Median |
33 |
13% |
47% |
|
34 |
13% |
34% |
|
35 |
12% |
21% |
|
36 |
6% |
9% |
|
37 |
2% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
2% |
97% |
|
28 |
8% |
95% |
|
29 |
13% |
88% |
|
30 |
15% |
75% |
|
31 |
20% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
16% |
39% |
|
33 |
10% |
23% |
|
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
3% |
5% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
7% |
98.5% |
|
18 |
22% |
91% |
Last Result |
19 |
19% |
69% |
|
20 |
19% |
50% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
31% |
|
22 |
8% |
20% |
|
23 |
10% |
12% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
4% |
97% |
|
14 |
5% |
94% |
|
15 |
8% |
89% |
|
16 |
44% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
23% |
37% |
|
18 |
8% |
14% |
|
19 |
5% |
6% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
15% |
98.7% |
|
7 |
33% |
83% |
|
8 |
7% |
50% |
Median |
9 |
8% |
43% |
Last Result |
10 |
31% |
36% |
|
11 |
3% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
5 |
12% |
97% |
|
6 |
31% |
85% |
|
7 |
17% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
37% |
|
9 |
10% |
25% |
Last Result |
10 |
8% |
15% |
|
11 |
4% |
7% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
10% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
10% |
89% |
|
7 |
14% |
79% |
|
8 |
18% |
65% |
Median |
9 |
28% |
47% |
Last Result |
10 |
7% |
19% |
|
11 |
11% |
12% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
78 |
80 |
100% |
76–83 |
75–84 |
74–85 |
73–87 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
74 |
76 |
100% |
72–79 |
71–80 |
71–81 |
69–82 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
65 |
69 |
99.0% |
65–72 |
65–73 |
64–74 |
62–75 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang |
62 |
63 |
67% |
60–67 |
59–68 |
58–69 |
57–71 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
58 |
59 |
14% |
56–63 |
55–64 |
55–65 |
53–67 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
56 |
56 |
1.2% |
53–59 |
52–61 |
51–62 |
49–63 |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen |
52 |
52 |
0% |
49–56 |
48–57 |
47–57 |
46–58 |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
52 |
51 |
0% |
48–55 |
47–56 |
46–57 |
44–58 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
47 |
49 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–53 |
44–53 |
42–55 |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen |
43 |
44 |
0% |
40–47 |
40–48 |
39–49 |
37–50 |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
43 |
43 |
0% |
40–47 |
39–48 |
38–48 |
37–50 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
40 |
40 |
0% |
37–43 |
36–44 |
35–45 |
34–47 |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
34 |
36 |
0% |
33–39 |
32–40 |
32–40 |
30–42 |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
36 |
35 |
0% |
32–38 |
31–39 |
30–40 |
29–42 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
34 |
32 |
0% |
28–34 |
27–35 |
27–36 |
25–38 |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
27 |
27 |
0% |
24–30 |
23–31 |
23–32 |
22–34 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
25 |
23 |
0% |
21–27 |
20–28 |
19–28 |
18–29 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
73 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
74 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
75 |
3% |
97% |
|
76 |
5% |
94% |
|
77 |
8% |
89% |
|
78 |
12% |
81% |
Last Result |
79 |
17% |
69% |
Median |
80 |
12% |
52% |
|
81 |
13% |
40% |
|
82 |
11% |
26% |
|
83 |
7% |
16% |
|
84 |
6% |
9% |
|
85 |
2% |
3% |
|
86 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
87 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
71 |
4% |
98% |
|
72 |
7% |
95% |
|
73 |
10% |
88% |
|
74 |
11% |
78% |
Last Result |
75 |
15% |
67% |
Median |
76 |
14% |
52% |
|
77 |
12% |
38% |
|
78 |
10% |
26% |
|
79 |
6% |
16% |
|
80 |
5% |
10% |
|
81 |
3% |
5% |
|
82 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
63 |
1.2% |
99.0% |
Majority |
64 |
3% |
98% |
|
65 |
8% |
95% |
Last Result |
66 |
13% |
87% |
|
67 |
11% |
75% |
|
68 |
13% |
64% |
Median |
69 |
14% |
51% |
|
70 |
13% |
37% |
|
71 |
11% |
23% |
|
72 |
6% |
12% |
|
73 |
3% |
6% |
|
74 |
2% |
3% |
|
75 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
76 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
58 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
59 |
3% |
97% |
|
60 |
5% |
94% |
|
61 |
10% |
89% |
|
62 |
12% |
79% |
Last Result |
63 |
19% |
67% |
Median, Majority |
64 |
13% |
48% |
|
65 |
13% |
36% |
|
66 |
9% |
23% |
|
67 |
7% |
14% |
|
68 |
4% |
7% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
71 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
55 |
4% |
98% |
|
56 |
7% |
94% |
|
57 |
10% |
87% |
|
58 |
14% |
77% |
Last Result |
59 |
14% |
63% |
Median |
60 |
12% |
48% |
|
61 |
13% |
36% |
|
62 |
9% |
23% |
|
63 |
7% |
14% |
Majority |
64 |
3% |
7% |
|
65 |
3% |
4% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
50 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
51 |
3% |
98% |
|
52 |
4% |
96% |
|
53 |
9% |
91% |
|
54 |
12% |
82% |
|
55 |
14% |
70% |
Median |
56 |
14% |
56% |
Last Result |
57 |
14% |
42% |
|
58 |
10% |
28% |
|
59 |
8% |
18% |
|
60 |
4% |
10% |
|
61 |
3% |
6% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
Majority |
64 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
47 |
3% |
98% |
|
48 |
5% |
95% |
|
49 |
10% |
90% |
|
50 |
13% |
81% |
|
51 |
9% |
68% |
|
52 |
10% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
53 |
11% |
49% |
|
54 |
14% |
38% |
|
55 |
11% |
24% |
|
56 |
8% |
13% |
|
57 |
4% |
5% |
|
58 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
46 |
2% |
98% |
|
47 |
4% |
96% |
|
48 |
8% |
92% |
|
49 |
10% |
85% |
|
50 |
14% |
75% |
|
51 |
16% |
61% |
Median |
52 |
13% |
45% |
Last Result |
53 |
13% |
32% |
|
54 |
9% |
19% |
|
55 |
5% |
10% |
|
56 |
3% |
5% |
|
57 |
2% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
44 |
2% |
98% |
|
45 |
3% |
97% |
|
46 |
8% |
94% |
|
47 |
17% |
85% |
Last Result |
48 |
17% |
69% |
Median |
49 |
13% |
51% |
|
50 |
13% |
38% |
|
51 |
12% |
25% |
|
52 |
8% |
13% |
|
53 |
3% |
6% |
|
54 |
2% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
39 |
3% |
98% |
|
40 |
6% |
96% |
|
41 |
7% |
90% |
|
42 |
11% |
83% |
|
43 |
15% |
72% |
Last Result |
44 |
14% |
57% |
Median |
45 |
13% |
43% |
|
46 |
9% |
30% |
|
47 |
11% |
20% |
|
48 |
5% |
10% |
|
49 |
3% |
4% |
|
50 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
39 |
4% |
97% |
|
40 |
8% |
93% |
|
41 |
12% |
84% |
|
42 |
17% |
72% |
|
43 |
13% |
55% |
Last Result, Median |
44 |
12% |
42% |
|
45 |
11% |
30% |
|
46 |
8% |
19% |
|
47 |
6% |
11% |
|
48 |
3% |
5% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
35 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
36 |
4% |
97% |
|
37 |
13% |
93% |
|
38 |
12% |
80% |
|
39 |
14% |
68% |
Median |
40 |
18% |
54% |
Last Result |
41 |
12% |
36% |
|
42 |
8% |
23% |
|
43 |
6% |
15% |
|
44 |
4% |
9% |
|
45 |
2% |
4% |
|
46 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
3% |
98% |
|
33 |
7% |
94% |
|
34 |
13% |
88% |
Last Result |
35 |
17% |
75% |
|
36 |
22% |
57% |
Median |
37 |
14% |
35% |
|
38 |
7% |
22% |
|
39 |
8% |
15% |
|
40 |
5% |
7% |
|
41 |
2% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
2% |
98% |
|
31 |
5% |
96% |
|
32 |
9% |
91% |
|
33 |
10% |
83% |
|
34 |
15% |
73% |
|
35 |
16% |
58% |
Median |
36 |
12% |
42% |
Last Result |
37 |
13% |
29% |
|
38 |
6% |
16% |
|
39 |
5% |
10% |
|
40 |
3% |
5% |
|
41 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
3% |
98% |
|
28 |
6% |
95% |
|
29 |
8% |
89% |
|
30 |
14% |
81% |
|
31 |
16% |
66% |
Median |
32 |
16% |
51% |
|
33 |
16% |
35% |
|
34 |
9% |
19% |
Last Result |
35 |
5% |
10% |
|
36 |
2% |
5% |
|
37 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
5% |
98% |
|
24 |
10% |
93% |
|
25 |
13% |
83% |
|
26 |
16% |
70% |
|
27 |
13% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
14% |
40% |
|
29 |
10% |
26% |
|
30 |
8% |
16% |
|
31 |
5% |
8% |
|
32 |
2% |
4% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
3% |
98% |
|
20 |
4% |
95% |
|
21 |
9% |
91% |
|
22 |
18% |
82% |
|
23 |
20% |
64% |
Median |
24 |
15% |
44% |
|
25 |
12% |
29% |
Last Result |
26 |
6% |
17% |
|
27 |
5% |
11% |
|
28 |
4% |
6% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 18–21 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.95%