Opinion Poll by Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB for De Standaard, RTBF and VRT, 3–24 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 23.9% | 26.9% | 25.7–28.2% | 25.4–28.5% | 25.1–28.8% | 24.5–29.4% |
| Vlaams Belang | 22.7% | 20.5% | 19.5–21.7% | 19.2–22.0% | 18.9–22.3% | 18.4–22.8% |
| Vooruit | 13.8% | 14.8% | 13.8–15.8% | 13.5–16.0% | 13.3–16.3% | 12.9–16.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.8–14.6% | 12.5–14.9% | 12.3–15.2% | 11.9–15.7% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.2–9.8% | 8.0–10.0% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.5–10.6% |
| Groen | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7–8.1% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.0–8.9% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% |
| Team Fouad Ahidar | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 31 | 36 | 35–38 | 35–39 | 34–39 | 33–41 |
| Vlaams Belang | 31 | 27 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 |
| Vooruit | 18 | 18 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–23 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 16 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 9 | 11 | 10–12 | 8–12 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
| Groen | 9 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 9 | 5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| Team Fouad Ahidar | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 35 | 26% | 96% | |
| 36 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 37 | 26% | 49% | |
| 38 | 14% | 23% | |
| 39 | 6% | 8% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 34% | 94% | |
| 27 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 28 | 14% | 38% | |
| 29 | 12% | 24% | |
| 30 | 9% | 11% | |
| 31 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 50% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 15% | 45% | |
| 20 | 17% | 31% | |
| 21 | 12% | 14% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 41% | 97% | Last Result |
| 17 | 40% | 55% | Median |
| 18 | 7% | 16% | |
| 19 | 7% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 96% | |
| 9 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 10 | 24% | 91% | |
| 11 | 40% | 67% | Median |
| 12 | 24% | 27% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 26% | 95% | |
| 9 | 38% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 11% | 31% | |
| 11 | 15% | 20% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 23% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 12% | 77% | |
| 4 | 5% | 65% | |
| 5 | 45% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 15% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Team Fouad Ahidar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 31% | 33% | Last Result |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 78 | 80 | 100% | 78–83 | 78–84 | 77–84 | 76–85 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 74 | 76 | 100% | 74–78 | 73–79 | 73–80 | 72–82 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 65 | 72 | 100% | 70–74 | 70–75 | 69–76 | 68–77 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang | 62 | 64 | 74% | 61–66 | 61–67 | 61–68 | 59–69 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 58 | 60 | 4% | 57–62 | 56–62 | 56–63 | 55–65 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 56 | 57 | 0.3% | 55–60 | 54–60 | 54–61 | 53–62 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen | 52 | 56 | 0% | 53–58 | 53–59 | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 47 | 53 | 0% | 51–55 | 51–56 | 50–57 | 49–58 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 52 | 49 | 0% | 47–52 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen | 43 | 45 | 0% | 43–47 | 42–48 | 42–48 | 41–50 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–43 | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 43 | 40 | 0% | 37–42 | 37–43 | 36–43 | 36–44 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 34 | 35 | 0% | 34–38 | 34–38 | 33–39 | 32–40 |
| Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 36 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 28–37 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 34 | 30 | 0% | 28–33 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 27 | 23 | 0% | 21–26 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 25 | 21 | 0% | 18–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 77 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 78 | 9% | 95% | Last Result |
| 79 | 19% | 87% | |
| 80 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 81 | 17% | 49% | |
| 82 | 14% | 32% | |
| 83 | 11% | 17% | |
| 84 | 5% | 6% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 5% | 98% | |
| 74 | 8% | 93% | Last Result |
| 75 | 12% | 85% | |
| 76 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 77 | 22% | 48% | |
| 78 | 18% | 26% | |
| 79 | 5% | 8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 8% | 96% | |
| 71 | 28% | 88% | Median |
| 72 | 22% | 60% | |
| 73 | 20% | 39% | |
| 74 | 10% | 19% | |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 9% | 98% | |
| 62 | 14% | 89% | Last Result |
| 63 | 21% | 74% | Median, Majority |
| 64 | 19% | 53% | |
| 65 | 16% | 34% | |
| 66 | 9% | 18% | |
| 67 | 6% | 9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 57 | 9% | 94% | |
| 58 | 12% | 85% | Last Result |
| 59 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 60 | 22% | 56% | |
| 61 | 23% | 34% | |
| 62 | 7% | 11% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 64 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 5% | 98% | |
| 55 | 7% | 94% | |
| 56 | 16% | 87% | Last Result |
| 57 | 21% | 71% | |
| 58 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 28% | |
| 60 | 9% | 14% | |
| 61 | 4% | 5% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 53 | 9% | 96% | |
| 54 | 15% | 87% | |
| 55 | 17% | 72% | Median |
| 56 | 20% | 56% | |
| 57 | 20% | 35% | |
| 58 | 10% | 16% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 10% | 97% | |
| 52 | 20% | 87% | |
| 53 | 26% | 68% | Median |
| 54 | 22% | 42% | |
| 55 | 11% | 20% | |
| 56 | 6% | 9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 7% | 97% | |
| 47 | 13% | 90% | |
| 48 | 17% | 77% | |
| 49 | 19% | 61% | Median |
| 50 | 17% | 42% | |
| 51 | 14% | 25% | |
| 52 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 53 | 4% | 5% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 13% | 91% | Last Result |
| 44 | 24% | 78% | Median |
| 45 | 20% | 55% | |
| 46 | 16% | 35% | |
| 47 | 11% | 18% | |
| 48 | 6% | 8% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 8% | 95% | |
| 39 | 9% | 88% | |
| 40 | 27% | 78% | Last Result |
| 41 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 42 | 17% | 34% | |
| 43 | 10% | 17% | |
| 44 | 5% | 6% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 8% | 96% | |
| 38 | 9% | 88% | |
| 39 | 19% | 79% | |
| 40 | 25% | 60% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 35% | |
| 42 | 11% | 20% | |
| 43 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 34 | 19% | 96% | Last Result |
| 35 | 29% | 77% | Median |
| 36 | 21% | 49% | |
| 37 | 16% | 28% | |
| 38 | 9% | 12% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 8% | 98% | |
| 30 | 10% | 90% | |
| 31 | 17% | 81% | |
| 32 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 45% | |
| 34 | 17% | 31% | |
| 35 | 8% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 8% | 98% | |
| 28 | 12% | 91% | |
| 29 | 13% | 79% | |
| 30 | 21% | 66% | |
| 31 | 19% | 45% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 25% | |
| 33 | 7% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 13% | 90% | |
| 22 | 10% | 78% | |
| 23 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 37% | |
| 25 | 12% | 23% | |
| 26 | 10% | 12% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 99.7% | |
| 19 | 11% | 88% | |
| 20 | 9% | 77% | |
| 21 | 23% | 68% | |
| 22 | 32% | 46% | Median |
| 23 | 10% | 14% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Bpact and Universiteit Antwerpen & ULB
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard, RTBF and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 3–24 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2196
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.27%