Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–17 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Vooruit 13.8% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.3% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Groen 7.3% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Team Fouad Ahidar 0.3% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 36 33–39 32–39 32–40 30–42
Vlaams Belang 31 31 28–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Vooruit 18 18 17–21 16–22 16–23 15–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 13 11–16 11–16 11–16 11–17
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 10 8–12 7–13 7–14 6–14
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 9 6 5–9 4–10 3–11 2–12
Groen 9 7 5–9 5–11 4–11 3–11
Team Fouad Ahidar 1 2 1–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4% Last Result
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 8% 89%  
35 20% 80%  
36 24% 60% Median
37 16% 37%  
38 9% 20%  
39 8% 12%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.7% 1.4%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 4% 97%  
28 10% 94%  
29 14% 84%  
30 17% 70%  
31 18% 53% Last Result, Median
32 18% 35%  
33 7% 17%  
34 6% 9%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.6%  
16 7% 98.9%  
17 17% 92%  
18 28% 76% Last Result, Median
19 20% 48%  
20 11% 28%  
21 9% 18%  
22 5% 9%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 15% 99.8%  
12 27% 85%  
13 15% 58% Median
14 13% 42%  
15 10% 29%  
16 17% 19% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.5% 100%  
7 8% 98%  
8 3% 90%  
9 7% 87% Last Result
10 47% 80% Median
11 20% 33%  
12 8% 13%  
13 3% 6%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 3% 98%  
4 2% 95%  
5 20% 93%  
6 35% 73% Median
7 15% 38%  
8 9% 23%  
9 7% 14% Last Result
10 4% 7%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.0% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.8%  
3 0.7% 99.6%  
4 3% 98.9%  
5 16% 96%  
6 21% 80%  
7 16% 59% Median
8 17% 43%  
9 19% 26% Last Result
10 2% 7%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Team Fouad Ahidar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Team Fouad Ahidar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 38% 91% Last Result
2 36% 53% Median
3 14% 17%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 80 100% 77–83 76–84 75–85 73–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 74 75 100% 71–78 70–79 69–80 68–81
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 65 68 98% 65–71 64–72 63–73 61–75
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang 62 66 94% 63–70 62–71 62–72 60–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 58 61 30% 58–64 57–65 56–66 54–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 56 0.5% 52–59 51–60 51–61 49–63
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 49 0% 46–52 46–53 45–54 43–56
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 49 0% 46–53 45–54 44–54 42–56
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 52 46 0% 42–49 41–50 40–51 39–53
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 40 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 43 39 0% 36–43 35–43 34–44 33–46
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 38 0% 35–42 34–43 34–44 32–45
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 34 32 0% 29–35 29–36 28–37 27–38
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 36 32 0% 29–36 28–37 27–37 26–39
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 34 27 0% 23–31 23–32 22–32 21–34
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 27 25 0% 22–28 22–29 21–30 19–32
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 25 19 0% 17–23 17–24 16–24 14–26

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 0.9% 99.2%  
75 3% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 8% 91%  
78 14% 82% Last Result
79 12% 68%  
80 12% 56% Median
81 16% 45%  
82 13% 28%  
83 9% 16%  
84 4% 7%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 1.5% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 1.4% 98.8%  
70 3% 97%  
71 7% 95%  
72 8% 88%  
73 16% 79% Median
74 13% 63% Last Result
75 17% 50%  
76 13% 34%  
77 11% 21%  
78 4% 11%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.4%  
63 2% 98% Majority
64 3% 97%  
65 10% 93% Last Result
66 12% 83%  
67 13% 71% Median
68 16% 58%  
69 9% 41%  
70 16% 32%  
71 8% 17%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.6%  
61 1.2% 99.0%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 6% 94% Majority
64 11% 88%  
65 12% 77%  
66 15% 65%  
67 12% 50% Median
68 11% 38%  
69 15% 27%  
70 5% 12%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 3% 98.6%  
57 5% 96%  
58 6% 91% Last Result
59 11% 85%  
60 14% 74% Median
61 15% 60%  
62 14% 44%  
63 12% 30% Majority
64 9% 19%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 1.2% 99.2%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 8% 89%  
54 11% 81%  
55 15% 70% Median
56 17% 54% Last Result
57 13% 37%  
58 9% 24%  
59 8% 15%  
60 3% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 1.5%  
63 0.3% 0.5% Majority
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.7%  
44 1.4% 99.1%  
45 2% 98%  
46 6% 95%  
47 13% 89% Last Result
48 11% 76%  
49 19% 65% Median
50 14% 45%  
51 13% 31%  
52 9% 18%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 1.5%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.4% 99.5%  
44 3% 98%  
45 4% 95%  
46 7% 92%  
47 14% 85%  
48 11% 71% Median
49 12% 60%  
50 14% 49%  
51 10% 35%  
52 10% 24% Last Result
53 8% 14%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 4% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 12% 89%  
44 12% 77% Median
45 12% 64%  
46 14% 52%  
47 13% 38%  
48 10% 26%  
49 7% 16%  
50 5% 9%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 1.4% 99.0%  
38 3% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 10% 89% Last Result
41 15% 79%  
42 16% 64% Median
43 15% 48%  
44 12% 33%  
45 11% 21%  
46 5% 10%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.9%  
35 4% 97%  
36 8% 93%  
37 14% 85%  
38 12% 71% Median
39 15% 60%  
40 13% 45%  
41 10% 32%  
42 10% 22%  
43 7% 12% Last Result
44 2% 4%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 12% 89%  
37 14% 77% Median
38 13% 62%  
39 14% 49%  
40 11% 35%  
41 11% 24%  
42 5% 13%  
43 4% 7% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.5%  
29 8% 95%  
30 13% 88%  
31 21% 75% Median
32 13% 54%  
33 12% 42%  
34 13% 29% Last Result
35 8% 16%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 0.9%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 4% 97%  
29 6% 93%  
30 11% 87%  
31 16% 76% Median
32 14% 60%  
33 13% 46%  
34 10% 32%  
35 11% 22%  
36 6% 11% Last Result
37 3% 5%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.7%  
22 3% 98%  
23 7% 96%  
24 10% 89%  
25 12% 79%  
26 12% 67% Median
27 12% 55%  
28 13% 43%  
29 13% 30%  
30 7% 17%  
31 5% 10%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 1.1% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 8% 96%  
23 12% 88%  
24 16% 76% Median
25 18% 60%  
26 14% 42%  
27 11% 28% Last Result
28 8% 16%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.5%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.8%  
15 0.7% 99.4%  
16 4% 98.7%  
17 13% 95%  
18 16% 82%  
19 16% 66% Median
20 13% 50%  
21 12% 37%  
22 10% 25%  
23 8% 15%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.6% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations