Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–17 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 23.9% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Vlaams Belang 22.7% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Vooruit 13.8% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 13.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 8.3% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 8.3% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Groen 7.3% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 31 36 33–39 32–39 32–40 31–41
Vlaams Belang 31 31 28–33 27–34 27–35 25–36
Vooruit 18 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 15–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 16 13 11–16 11–16 11–16 11–17
Partij van de Arbeid van België 9 10 8–12 7–13 7–14 6–14
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 9 6 5–9 4–10 3–11 2–12
Groen 9 8 5–9 5–10 4–11 3–11

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 2% 99.6% Last Result
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 8% 89%  
35 18% 81%  
36 28% 63% Median
37 12% 36%  
38 12% 23%  
39 7% 11%  
40 3% 4%  
41 1.1% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 95%  
29 13% 89%  
30 16% 76%  
31 23% 60% Last Result, Median
32 20% 37%  
33 8% 17%  
34 5% 9%  
35 3% 4%  
36 1.1% 1.5%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.6%  
16 2% 99.0%  
17 17% 97%  
18 30% 80% Last Result
19 20% 50% Median
20 14% 31%  
21 8% 17%  
22 4% 9%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 15% 99.8%  
12 26% 84%  
13 17% 58% Median
14 13% 42%  
15 10% 28%  
16 16% 18% Last Result
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.5% 100%  
7 8% 98%  
8 3% 90%  
9 8% 87% Last Result
10 49% 79% Median
11 17% 30%  
12 7% 13%  
13 3% 6%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.4% 100%  
3 3% 98.6%  
4 1.2% 96%  
5 18% 95%  
6 44% 76% Median
7 12% 32%  
8 8% 20%  
9 4% 12% Last Result
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.3% 1.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 99.7%  
4 2% 98.8%  
5 17% 97%  
6 12% 80%  
7 15% 68%  
8 21% 52% Median
9 23% 31% Last Result
10 3% 8%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 78 80 100% 77–83 76–84 75–85 73–87
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 74 75 100% 71–78 71–79 70–80 68–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 65 68 98.9% 65–71 64–72 63–73 62–75
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang 62 67 96% 64–70 63–71 62–72 60–73
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 58 61 31% 58–65 57–66 56–67 55–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 56 56 0.7% 52–59 52–60 51–61 49–63
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 52 50 0% 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–56
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 47 49 0% 46–52 46–53 45–54 43–55
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 52 46 0% 43–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 40 42 0% 39–46 38–47 38–47 36–49
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 43 40 0% 36–43 35–44 35–44 33–46
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 43 38 0% 35–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 36 33 0% 29–36 29–37 28–38 26–40
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 34 32 0% 30–35 29–36 28–37 27–38
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 34 27 0% 24–31 23–31 22–32 21–34
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 27 25 0% 23–28 22–29 22–30 20–32
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 25 19 0% 17–23 17–24 16–25 14–26

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.4%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 7% 93%  
78 12% 87% Last Result
79 12% 75%  
80 17% 63% Median
81 16% 46%  
82 12% 30%  
83 10% 18%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.8% 1.5%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 1.0% 99.3%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 96%  
72 10% 90%  
73 14% 79%  
74 14% 65% Last Result, Median
75 15% 51%  
76 14% 37%  
77 10% 23%  
78 6% 13%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 1.5% 98.9% Majority
64 3% 97%  
65 7% 94% Last Result
66 13% 87%  
67 13% 74%  
68 15% 60% Median
69 14% 46%  
70 13% 32%  
71 10% 18%  
72 4% 8%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vlaams Belang

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 1.1% 99.3%  
62 3% 98% Last Result
63 4% 96% Majority
64 9% 91%  
65 11% 82%  
66 13% 71%  
67 18% 58% Median
68 14% 41%  
69 12% 26%  
70 8% 14%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 4% 97%  
58 8% 93% Last Result
59 10% 85%  
60 13% 76%  
61 17% 63% Median
62 15% 46%  
63 12% 31% Majority
64 8% 19%  
65 5% 11%  
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.4%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 9% 90%  
54 12% 81%  
55 16% 69% Median
56 14% 53% Last Result
57 13% 38%  
58 11% 26%  
59 7% 14%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.7% 1.4%  
63 0.5% 0.7% Majority
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 93%  
47 9% 89%  
48 10% 79%  
49 17% 69%  
50 16% 53% Median
51 12% 37%  
52 10% 25% Last Result
53 8% 14%  
54 4% 7%  
55 1.5% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.3% 99.3%  
45 3% 98%  
46 7% 95%  
47 11% 89% Last Result
48 14% 78%  
49 18% 64% Median
50 16% 46%  
51 11% 31%  
52 10% 19%  
53 5% 9%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 1.5%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 1.1% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 4% 95%  
43 9% 91%  
44 10% 82%  
45 15% 72%  
46 16% 57% Median
47 13% 41%  
48 12% 29%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 9%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.3% 2% Last Result
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.3%  
38 4% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 8% 89% Last Result
41 16% 81%  
42 19% 64% Median
43 12% 45%  
44 14% 33%  
45 9% 19%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 3% 98%  
36 5% 94%  
37 11% 89%  
38 12% 78%  
39 16% 67%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 12% 35%  
42 10% 23%  
43 8% 14% Last Result
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.6%  
34 3% 98.8%  
35 6% 96%  
36 12% 90%  
37 14% 78%  
38 16% 64% Median
39 13% 48%  
40 11% 35%  
41 9% 24%  
42 7% 15%  
43 4% 7% Last Result
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.5%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 1.1% 99.4%  
28 3% 98%  
29 7% 96%  
30 9% 89%  
31 13% 80%  
32 14% 67%  
33 16% 53% Median
34 14% 37%  
35 11% 23%  
36 6% 12% Last Result
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.4%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 7% 97%  
30 15% 90%  
31 17% 75%  
32 15% 58% Median
33 14% 43%  
34 12% 29% Last Result
35 9% 17%  
36 6% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.7%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 4% 96%  
24 9% 93%  
25 10% 84%  
26 13% 73%  
27 18% 60% Median
28 14% 43%  
29 11% 29%  
30 8% 18%  
31 6% 10%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.7%  
21 1.4% 99.0%  
22 6% 98%  
23 14% 92%  
24 19% 78%  
25 16% 58% Median
26 15% 43%  
27 11% 27% Last Result
28 8% 17%  
29 5% 9%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.1% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.8%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 0.7% 99.3%  
16 3% 98.6%  
17 11% 95%  
18 20% 84%  
19 17% 64% Median
20 12% 48%  
21 13% 36%  
22 10% 23%  
23 6% 13%  
24 4% 7%  
25 2% 3% Last Result
26 0.7% 1.0%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations