Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL, 7–8 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 31.4% | 29.9–32.9% | 29.5–33.3% | 29.1–33.7% | 28.4–34.4% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.8% | 20.5–23.2% | 20.2–23.6% | 19.9–23.9% | 19.3–24.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.5–16.8% | 14.2–17.1% | 13.9–17.4% | 13.4–18.0% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.6–11.6% | 9.3–11.9% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.7–12.6% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.3% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.2–3.1% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–32 | 30–33 | 29–33 | 28–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–25 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 12% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 84% | |
| 32 | 61% | 71% | Median |
| 33 | 7% | 9% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 10% | 98% | |
| 21 | 12% | 88% | |
| 22 | 59% | 76% | Median |
| 23 | 15% | 17% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 19% | 87% | |
| 16 | 61% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 33% | 93% | |
| 11 | 56% | 60% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 28% | |
| 4 | 3% | 28% | |
| 5 | 24% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–32 | 30–33 | 29–33 | 28–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 12% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 84% | |
| 32 | 61% | 71% | Median |
| 33 | 7% | 9% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 28% | |
| 2 | 0% | 28% | |
| 3 | 0% | 28% | |
| 4 | 3% | 28% | |
| 5 | 24% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): Challenges, M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 7–8 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1617
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.19%