Les Républicains (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8.6% | 6.7–10.2% | 6.3–10.7% | 6.0–11.0% | 5.5–11.8% |
| 18–19 August 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
7.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.6–9.4% |
| 8–10 July 2026 | Verian L’Hémicycle |
7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 9–10 July 2026 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
9.2% | 8.3–10.3% | 8.0–10.6% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.4–11.4% |
| 8–9 July 2026 | OpinionWay Les Echos |
9.6% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% | 7.9–11.7% | 7.4–12.4% |
| 7–8 July 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI and Le Figaro |
9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| 7–8 July 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.1–10.2% |
| 22–24 June 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
10.7% | 9.7–11.8% | 9.4–12.1% | 9.2–12.4% | 8.7–12.9% |
| 10–11 June 2026 | OpinionWay Le Journal du Dimanche |
8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.3% |
| 27–28 May 2026 | Ipsos Le Parisien |
8.9% | 8.0–10.0% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.2–11.0% |
| 26–28 May 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
9.4% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.1–11.0% | 7.9–11.3% | 7.4–11.9% |
| 25–27 May 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
8.8% | 7.9–9.9% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.4–10.5% | 6.9–11.1% |
| 20–21 May 2026 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| 28–30 April 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
| 26–27 March 2026 | OpinionWay | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 25–27 March 2026 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.6–7.9% |
| 25–26 March 2026 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| 22 March 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.3–10.9% |
| 26–27 February 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
10.9% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.4–12.5% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.7–13.5% |
| 18–20 November 2025 | Verian | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.3% | 5.5–9.9% |
| 19–20 November 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
9.1% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.1–11.5% |
| 30–31 October 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.9% |
| 7 October 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
10.4% | 9.3–11.7% | 9.0–12.1% | 8.8–12.4% | 8.3–13.0% |
| 30 September–1 October 2025 | Cluster17 Le Point |
12.5% | 11.5–13.7% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.5–14.8% |
| 24–25 September 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial L’Opinion and Sud Radio |
11.4% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.9–13.0% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.1–14.0% |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
7.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
5.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
7.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | 5.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
6.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Les Républicains (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 20% | 92% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 21% | 72% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 26% | 51% | Median |
| 9.5–10.5% | 18% | 24% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 |
| 18–19 August 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 8–10 July 2026 | Verian L’Hémicycle |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 9–10 July 2026 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 8–9 July 2026 | OpinionWay Les Echos |
9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| 7–8 July 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI and Le Figaro |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 7–8 July 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 22–24 June 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
9 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 10–11 June 2026 | OpinionWay Le Journal du Dimanche |
8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 27–28 May 2026 | Ipsos Le Parisien |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| 26–28 May 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
8 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| 25–27 May 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
7 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 20–21 May 2026 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
7 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 28–30 April 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| 26–27 March 2026 | OpinionWay | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| 25–27 March 2026 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| 25–26 March 2026 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 22 March 2026 | Harris Interactive M6 and RTL |
8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| 26–27 February 2026 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
10 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| 18–20 November 2025 | Verian | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 19–20 November 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| 30–31 October 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 7 October 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| 30 September–1 October 2025 | Cluster17 Le Point |
11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| 24–25 September 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial L’Opinion and Sud Radio |
11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
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| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
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| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
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| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
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| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
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| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
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| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
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| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
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| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | |||||
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
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| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Les Républicains (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 14% | 90% | |
| 7 | 27% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 50% | |
| 9 | 21% | 26% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |