Reconquête (ESN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.4% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.1% | 3.5–7.7% |
| 30–31 October 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% |
| 7 October 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.4–8.1% |
| 30 September–1 October 2025 | Cluster17 Le Point |
5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
| 24–25 September 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial L’Opinion and Sud Radio |
4.6% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.2–6.4% |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
3.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
4.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
3.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | 4.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
3.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Reconquête (ESN).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 14% | 99.2% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 44% | 85% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 33% | 41% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 30–31 October 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
0 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 7 October 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 30 September–1 October 2025 | Cluster17 Le Point |
5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 24–25 September 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial L’Opinion and Sud Radio |
0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
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| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
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| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
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| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
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| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
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| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
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| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
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| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
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| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | |||||
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
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| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Reconquête (ESN).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 5 | 34% | 44% | |
| 6 | 10% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |