Reconquête (ESN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.0% | 2.9–5.2% | 2.6–5.6% | 2.4–5.9% | 2.1–6.5% |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
4.4% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.5% |
| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% |
| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
3.8% | 3.3–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Reconquête (ESN).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 26% | 96% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 43% | 70% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 22% | 27% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 19–20 May 2025 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 19 May 2025 | Harris Interactive LCI |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 11–30 April 2025 | Ifop Hexagone |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| 23–24 April 2025 | Odoxa Public Sénat |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–4 April 2025 | ELABE BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 31 March 2025 | Harris Interactive RTL |
0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 26–27 March 2025 | Ifop Le Journal du Dimanche |
0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Le Figaro and Sud Radio |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| 11–12 September 2024 | OpinionWay | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| 6–9 September 2024 | Ifop–Fiducial Sud Radio |
5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 7–8 July 2024 | Harris Interactive Challenges, M6 and RTL |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Reconquête (ESN).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 5% | 11% | |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |