Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for Sud Radio, 6–9 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.3% | 32.5–36.2% | 32.0–36.7% | 31.5–37.2% | 30.7–38.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–22.9% | 19.3–23.4% | 18.9–23.8% | 18.2–24.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 11.0–13.5% | 10.7–13.9% | 10.4–14.3% | 9.8–15.0% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.7–8.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.2–6.6% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.8% |
| Résistons! (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.3% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Résistons! (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 6% | 97% | |
| 32 | 6% | 91% | |
| 33 | 30% | 85% | |
| 34 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 39% | |
| 36 | 12% | 26% | |
| 37 | 10% | 14% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 19 | 9% | 94% | |
| 20 | 32% | 85% | |
| 21 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 22 | 12% | 40% | |
| 23 | 25% | 28% | |
| 24 | 3% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 8% | 98% | |
| 11 | 24% | 90% | |
| 12 | 42% | 66% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 24% | |
| 14 | 4% | 6% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 13% | 98% | |
| 6 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 27% | 43% | |
| 8 | 16% | 16% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 71% | |
| 2 | 0% | 71% | |
| 3 | 0% | 71% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 71% | |
| 5 | 53% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 17% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0% | 58% | |
| 4 | 4% | 58% | |
| 5 | 47% | 54% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 18% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 18% | |
| 5 | 14% | 17% | |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Résistons! (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Résistons! (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 0.2% | 32–37 | 31–37 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 6% | 97% | |
| 32 | 6% | 91% | |
| 33 | 30% | 85% | |
| 34 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 39% | |
| 36 | 12% | 26% | |
| 37 | 10% | 14% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 5 | 13% | 98% | |
| 6 | 41% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 27% | 43% | |
| 8 | 16% | 16% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 71% | |
| 2 | 0% | 71% | |
| 3 | 0% | 71% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 71% | |
| 5 | 53% | 70% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 17% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 6–9 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1091
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.94%